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FCA is setting a five-year strategy: Here's how the last one played out

We're slightly more than four years removed from Sergio Marchionne last five-year plan for FCA, a tell-all where the Italian-American automaker divulged its plans for the 2014 through 2018 model years. It was a grand affair, where Sergio told FCA investors that all was right in Auburn Hills, Alfa Romeo and Maserati were making comebacks, and the fifth-gen Dodge Viper received a mid-cycle refresh. You can read every last one of those past predictions right here. We're on our way to Europe to see Sergio's sequel, coming out Friday straight from FCA's Italian headquarters. (Bloomberg reports a plan to expand Jeep and Ram globally, combine Alfa Romeo and Maserati into a single division for an eventual spinoff, and downsizing Fiat and Chrysler. Also, EVs.) But before we arrive in Italy and find out exactly what Marchionne has planned for 2019 through 2023 as his last act as CEO, let's take a minute to tally up the results of his last term based on the same scoresheet we used in 2014. Now, we're only five months into 2018, so much of this — including vehicles like the Ram HD and Jeep Grand Wagoneer — could still debut this year. For those, we'll mark things TBD. We're not going to draw any conclusions or make any objectionable remarks. We're simply going to let the stats speak for themselves.

Marchionne wants Maserati to be FCA's new Ferrari

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles is gearing up to spin Ferrari, its most profitable brand, off into another company, and float its stock on the open market. That means it's going to need another profit-driver to generate income for the rest of the group. And according to its chief executive Sergio Marchionne, that mantle will soon be picked up by Maserati. FCA is betting big on Maserati, which has long stood as a niche marque with a limited array of models and low sales numbers. In addition to the recently introduced Ghibli and Quattroporte sedans – now crucially offered with diesels and all-wheel drive – Maserati is preparing to roll out the Levante crossover that promises to do for the Modenese marque what the Cayenne did for Porsche. Due in part to the success of its first crossover, Porsche turned itself from a niche sports car manufacturer into an immensely profitable automaker that was (nearly) capable of buying out the entire Volkswagen Group. Maserati's resurgence is part of a two-pronged assault FCA is plotting against its German rivals. Maserati will be charged with taking on the higher end of the Mercedes, BMW, and Audi ranges (from the E-Class, 5 Series and A6 upwards). Meanwhile, Alfa Romeo will go after the lower end of the luxury spectrum with the new Giulia (aimed at the C-Class, 3 Series and A4) and other models to follow. FCA aims to turn Maserati and Alfa Romeo (along with Jeep) into global brands, broadening the narrow geographical appeal they have held until now. In order to generate enough profit to support the rest of the group as Ferrari has, Maserati will need to find a way to increase its profit margins. Bloomberg reports that Ferraris command a 13-percent profit margin, and while the ten percent that Maseratis list for is still triple that of the FCA average, slow sales are forcing some dealers to offer deep incentives that cut significantly into that margin. Related Video:

Ferrari, not Tesla, might be the stock to buy

Last week Tesla's earnings – or lack thereof – were one of the big stories in the auto industry. As usual, the electric carmaker didn't make money, but the news sent the market, analysts, and Tesla's devoted fans into a lather. But another company, this plucky upstart called Ferrari, also attracted a positive reaction from the market and actually had the financials to back it up. Ferrari posted net revenues of $898 million (at today's exchange rates) EBITDA of $265 million (a slightly complicated way to snapshot financial performance) and an adjusted net profit of $136 million in the first quarter. The company delivered 2,003 cars, and sales of its V12 models increased 50 percent. It quietly made progress nearly a year and a half into its life as an independent automaker. For 2017, Ferrari expects to deliver 8,400 cars and rake in net revenue of $3.6 billion. No one thought Ferrari would flounder when Fiat Chrysler Automobiles spun it off in fall 2015. With a rich history, expensive products, and its own loyal fan base that's arguably even larger than Tesla's, the company seemed poised for success, though skeptics wondered how it might fare after longtime chief Luca di Montezemolo stepped down before the spinoff. Plus, the company remains within the FCA sphere, as its key stakeholders are largely connected to its former parent in some way, and Chairman Sergio Marchionne also steers FCA. Last week's results showed Ferrari is gaining footing in the evolving automotive world, and analysts responded. UBS analyst Michael Binetti reiterated Ferrari stock (RACE on the NYSE) as buy status and raised his target price from $85 to $92. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas was even more bullish, raising projections to $100 in the next 12 months. Shares were trading around $82 Monday morning. Both analysts viewed Ferrari as something different than a conventional automaker stock, with Binetti comparing it to luxury house Hermes, which produces high margins even for a specialty goods maker. Jonas suggested Ferrari's singular reputation and history (16 Formula One Constructors titles, the most ever) could insulate its products when autonomous and electric cars become even more commonplace. "In our view, a Ferrari is not transportation," he wrote in a note to clients. "Ownership is viewed as an exclusive club, and membership requires more than just money.