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China-FCA merger could be a win-win for everyone but politicians

NEW YORK — Fiat Chrysler boss Sergio Marchionne has said the car industry needs to come together, cut costs and stop incinerating capital. So far, his words have mostly fallen on deaf ears among competitors in Europe and North America. But it appears Marchionne has finally found a receptive audience — in China. FCA shares soared Monday after trade publication Automotive News reported the $18 billion Italian-American conglomerate controlled by the Agnelli family rebuffed a takeover from an unidentified carmaker from the Chinese mainland. As ugly as the politics of such a combination may appear at first blush, a transaction could stack up industrially, and perhaps even financially. A Sino-U.S.-European merger would create the first truly global auto group. That could push consolidation to the next level elsewhere. Moreover, China is the world's top market for the SUVs that Jeep effectively invented, so it might benefit FCA financially. A combo would certainly help upgrade the domestic manufacturer; Chinese carmakers have gotten better at making cars, but struggle to build global brands, and they need to develop export markets. Though frivolous overseas shopping excursions by Chinese enterprises are being reined in by Beijing, acquisitions that support the modernization and transformation of strategic industries still receive support, and the government considers the automotive industry to be strategic. A purchase of FCA by Guangzhou Automobile, Great Wall or Dongfeng Motors would probably get the same stamp of approval ChemChina was given for its $43 billion takeover of Syngenta. What's standing in the way? Apart from price (Automotive News said FCA's board deemed the offer insufficient) there's the not-insignificant matter of politics. Even as FCA shares soared, President Donald Trump interrupted his vacation to instruct the U.S. Trade Representative to look into whether to investigate China's trade policies on intellectual property. Seeing storied Detroit brands like Jeep, Chrysler, Ram and Dodge handed off to a Chinese company would provoke howls among Trump's economic-nationalist supporters. It might not play well in Italy, either, to see Alfa Romeo and Maserati answering to Wuhan instead of Turin — though Automotive News said they might be spun off separately. Yet, as Morgan Stanley observes, "cars don't ship across oceans easily," and political considerations increasingly demand local manufacture of valuable products.

Demon's NHRA competition ban: Good talking point, bad feature

One of the biggest headlines for the Dodge Challenger Demon is that, in stock form, it's so fast that the NHRA won't allow it to compete in the organization's events. It's the ultimate humble brag, "I can't drag race my car because it's so fast it was banned by the sanctioning body." Certainly Tim Kuniskis, head of FCA brands in North America, was excited. He told the press that he hugged the guy that brought him the letter banning the Demon from competition. Unfortunately, the reality is that not being NHRA-legal is kind of silly, and frustrating for owners who would want to actually race. Before we go too much farther, we should explain exactly why the Demon is illegal for NHRA competition. The car is capable of a sub-10-second quarter-mile time both on racing fuel and 91-octane pump gas. Cars that fast are required by the NHRA to have a full, certified roll cage, and the Demon doesn't. Now there are certainly ways to get around this. The most obvious would be for a Demon owner to have a company install a roll cage. Using less grippy tires than the barely street-legal Nitto cheater slicks would probably help bring that time down, too. There's also the option of putting the car into Eco mode, and, yes, the Demon has one. In Eco mode, the Demon makes just 500 horsepower, and trips the lights at the quarter-mile in 11.59 seconds, which will avoid the roll-cage requirement. However, none of these options are ideal. For one thing, if you bought an 840-horsepower car, you're not going to want to limit it when you get to a closed course such as a drag strip. Similarly, you're not going to want to ditch your super-sticky tires at the strip, especially when they're standard equipment. Finally, having to go aftermarket for a roll cage is an inconvenience at minimum, and it seems like a strange oversight considering the rest of the car. This is a car from the factory that comes with drag radials, no passenger seats, a racing fuel tune, air conditioned intercooler, and even skinny front wheels for drag racing. Its purpose is clear, but for some reason, Dodge stopped short of giving it a roll cage that would allow it to compete. Perhaps adding a roll cage would've made it difficult to pass safety regulations, and we would be more disappointed if the car wasn't allowed on the street. Even so, it seems like an odd stopping point.

Auto Mergers and Acquisitions: Suicide or salvation?

We love the Moses figure. A savior riding in from stage right with the ideas, the smarts, and the scrappiness to put things right. Alan Mullaly. Carroll Shelby. Lee Iacocca. Andrew Carnegie. Steve Jobs. Elon Musk. Bart Simpson. Sergio Marchionne does not likely view himself with Moses-like optics, but the CEO of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles recently gave a remarkable, perhaps prophetic interview with Automotive News about his interest and the inevitability of merging with a potential automotive partner like General Motors. Marchionne has been overtly public about his notion that GM must merge with FCA. For a bit of context, GM sold 9.9 million vehicles in 2014, posting $2.8 billion in net income, while FCA sold 4.75 million units and earned $2.4 billion in net income, painting a very rosy FCA earnings-to-sales picture. But that's not the entire picture. Most people in the auto industry still remember the trainwreck that was the DaimlerChrysler "merger" written in what turned out to be sand in 1998. It proved to be a master class in how not to fuse two companies, two cultures, two continents, and two management teams. Oh, it worked for the two individuals at both helms pre-merger. They got silly rich. And the industry itself was in a misty romance at the time with mergers and acquisitions. BMW bought Rolls-Royce. Volkswagen Group bought Bentley, Bugatti, and Lamborghini, putting all three brands into their rightful place in both products and positioning. No marriages there, so no false pretense. Finally, Nissan and Renault got married in 1999. A successful marriage requires several rare elements in this atmosphere of gas fumes and power lust. But a successful marriage requires several rare elements in this atmosphere of gas fumes and power lust, the principle part being honesty. Daimler and Chrysler lied to each other. The heads of each unit, the product planners, and finance all presented their then-current and long-range forecasts to each other with less-than-forthright accuracy. Daimler was the far greater equal and no one from the Chrysler side enjoyed that. The cultures were entirely different, too, and little was done to bridge that gap. Which brings me back to the present overtures by Marchionne to GM. "There are varying degrees of hugs," Marchionne stated in the Automotive News piece. "I can hug you nicely, I can hug you tightly, I can hug you like a bear, I can really hug you." Seriously?