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Buy Ford and GM stock and make 5%

Want to make a five-percent return when 10-year treasuries are paying around two percent? Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) have solid balance sheets, strong cash flow, solid earnings, and growing markets. By all accounts, they are smart investments. But the market is down on these stocks. Why? Some of the stupid excuses include: They are cyclical companies The Detroit 3 have lost 3.5 million in sales since 2000 The world economy is shaky GM recently filed for bankruptcy Their markets have peaked They haven't changed their ways Let's take these criticisms one by one: They Are Cyclical Companies Yes, they are cyclical. Every company is cyclical. Every industry is cyclical. Some more than others, but not every company is immune from swings in the market. Banks used to be 'non-cyclical' leader, not anymore. Airline stocks are just as cyclical as auto stocks, yet they are trading at multiples greater than the auto industry. Why? And what accounts for the irrational stock price for Tesla (TSLA)? At least Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) make money and have positive cash flows. In fact, both companies have a net positive cash position. They have more cash on hand than liabilities. Auto sales in the United States hit a record 17.5 million vehicles in 2015. During the Great Recession, Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) cut their break even points to 10 million vehicles per year. Anything above an annual U.S. volume of 10 million vehicles is profit. And what a profit they make. Sales of Ford's F-150 continues to be the best-selling vehicle in the United States for over 30 years. Detroit 3 Have Lost 3.5 million in Sales Since 2000 Automotive News reports General Motors (GM), Ford (F) and Chrysler (FCA) have lost a combined 3.5 million vehicles sales since 2000. So how can they be making more money? Two big reasons – Fleet Sales and the UAW. Fleet Sales The Detroit 3 used to own car rental companies to keep their factories running. Ford owned Hertz (HTZ), General Motors owned all of National Car Rental and 29 percent of Avis, and Chrysler, the forerunner to Fiat Chrysler (FCA), used to own Thrifty Car Rental and Dollar Rent-A-Car. The Detroit 3 owned these rental companies to have a place to sell their bad product and keep their factories running. These were low margin sales, and in many cases, were money losers for the Detroit 3. They no longer own auto rental companies.

Why FCA-PSA merger is no quick fix for their China problem

BEIJING — Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot owner PSA's merger is unlikely to provide a quick fix to their problems in China, as both companies have long struggled to find the right products at the right price for the world's top car market, analysts say. The companies said on Thursday they aimed to reach a binding deal in the coming weeks to create the world's fourth-biggest automaker by production volume. But scale alone will not make Italian-American Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) and France's PSA Group more competitive in a market where they have been slow to adapt to trends and win over consumers, leading their sales to lag far behind foreign rivals such as Volkswagen and General Motors. PSA does not have enough competitive SUV models, and neither company has enough electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, or enough cars packed with hi-tech features for Chinese tastes, analysts say. In a market where 28 million cars were bought in 2018, FCA sold just 155,215, while PSA sold 257,723, according to consultancy LMC Automotive. At the end of September, FCA had a market share of 0.5% in China's passenger car market, while PSA's was 0.6%. Analysts say they have been squeezed by Japanese and local brands, which have product line-ups better suited to Chinese tastes at cheaper prices. "Both companies are very home-market centred and have failed to adapt to shifts in Chinese market preferences," said Bill Russo, head of Shanghai-based consultancy Automobility Ltd and a former senior Asia-based Chrysler executive. "Neither company has recognized and delivered on the trends of shared, connected and electric vehicles,” Russo said. That makes them ill-prepared to deal with further shifts in the Chinese market, which saw annual sales contract for the first time since the 1990s last year and is expected to see another drop this year. "China's overall market is experiencing a transmission and adjustment period," said Alan Kang, a Shanghai-based senior analyst at LMC Automotive. "It is very hard for these two companies, which do not have enough competitive up-to-date products, to quickly recover with the merger." FCA has a partnership in China with Guangzhou Automobile Group, which said on Thursday it backed the merger. PSA has been trying to reboot its operations in China.

Prosecutors indict three FCA employees in alleged emissions-cheating case

Federal prosecutors indicted three Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA, now Stellantis) employees as part of an investigation into alleged emissions cheating. Charges unsealed on April 20, 2021, accuse the defendants of helping rig the emissions control system fitted to the 3.0-liter turbodiesel V6 used in some models during the 2010s. Prosecutors claim Emanuele Palma, Sergio Pasini, and Gianluca Sabbioni played a determining role in developing a defeat device that allowed the V6 to obtain certification from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) while polluting too much in normal driving conditions. Jeep and Ram began making the engine available in the Grand Cherokee and the 1500, respectively, in 2014, but the charges state plans to game the EPA started in 2011. Palma, Pasini, and Sabbioni knowingly mislead federal regulators, the charges claim; they called it "cycle beating," according to The Detroit News. While the three men were part of FCA's research and development department, they started the project while working for an Italian supplier named VM Motori, which FCA purchased in 2013. Pasini and Sabbioni are each charged with one count of conspiracy to defraud the United States and to violate the Clean Air Act, one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud, and six counts of violating the Clean Air Act. They could spend several years behind bars if they're found guilty. Both are currently in their home country of Italy. Palma's legal troubles are more serious. He was charged with several counts in September 2019, though four wire fraud charges were dropped in November 2020. He lives in Bloomfield Hills, a city located on the far outskirts of Detroit. Prosecutors claim motorists spent over $4 billion on over 100,000 trucks and SUVs fitted with the non-compliant engine between January 2013 and September 2017. FCA has already agreed to pay $800 million to resolve civil claims from the Justice Department, state officials and customers, though it significantly has not admitted guilt. It stressed that "it did not engage in any deliberate scheme to install defeat devices to cheat emissions tests."