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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

Dodge Grand Caravan reportedly will cease production in 2020

The Dodge Grand Caravan looks like it may finally be reaching its demise next year. A report from Automotive News Canada says the old Dodge minivan will cease production in May 2020. The report cites AutoForecast Solutions as the source of its news. FCA confirmed to us that the van will be going away eventually, but the company is not ready to put an official end date on it yet. For the time being, it looks like the Grand Caravan’s long run will eventually grind to a halt in Windsor, Ontario, the vanÂ’s only production site. With the introduction of the Chrysler Voyager as the budget minivan option from Chrysler, FCA may think it no longer has any use for the outdated Dodge. The Grand Caravan has a starting price of $28,535, whereas the new Voyager is priced from $28,480. ThatÂ’s an almost identical starting point, but we still donÂ’t know what kind of incentives FCA will offer for the Voyager. There are typically big cuts for the Grand Caravan, which have pushed recent average transaction prices down to $24,972. We imagine itÂ’ll be much more difficult for FCA to offer discounts of that magnitude to Voyager shoppers. Still, AutoForecast Solutions told Automotive News it believes FCA will transition folks away from the Grand Caravan. “For the 2020 model year, theyÂ’ll likely run to fleet and then get the consumers to buy the new Voyager,” says Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions. Eliminating the Grand Caravan would be a strong bet on ChryslerÂ’s strategy of splitting the Pacifica into two different model lines. Nearly every month, FCA sells more Grand Caravans than Pacificas. The Pacifica is the far superior minivan to own, but you canÂ’t argue with a cheap price. Once the Grand Caravan is gone, budget minivan buyers will have no choice but to buy a Voyager if they want the cheapest new option out there. Entries from the few other manufacturers that produce minivans are all going to be more expensive than the Voyager. The 2020 Pacifica and Voyager team are slated to reach dealers later this year, but it wonÂ’t be until next year that weÂ’re able to fully take stock of how this plays out for FCA.

Fiat to list on New York Stock Exchange?

Citing the ever-nebulous "two sources close to Fiat," Reuters is reporting that the Italian automaker and owner of the Chrysler brand is likely to list itself on the New York Stock Exchange. The move could reportedly happen as soon as 2015, marking the end, at least in the minds of investors, of Fiat's 115-year base in Turin, Italy.
The Italian government is not likely to react favorably to Fiat's potential move from Italy to the United States, despite initially positive reactions to Fiat's landmark final purchase of Chrysler, the third-largest automaker in the US. Fiat spent $3.65 billion to buy out the 41.46-percent stake in Chrysler that had been owned by the United Auto Workers' VEBA trust fund.
With little sign of a swift European recovery, Fiat has little choice but to focus on markets outside its traditional home, and a listing in New York could potentially be a boon for investors. According to International Strategy and Investment analyst George Galliers, speaking to Reuters, "People [would be] more likely to think of the entity in the same context as they do Ford and GM" if it were listed on the NYSE.