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For thousands of US auto workers, the downturn is already here

LORDSTOWN, Ohio - Wall Street is fretting that the auto industry is heading for a downturn, but for thousands of workers at General Motors factories in the United States, the hard times are already here. Matt Streb, 36, was one of 1,200 workers laid off on Jan. 20 - inauguration day for President Donald Trump - when GM canceled the third shift at its Lordstown small-car factory here. Sales of the Chevrolet Cruze sedan, the only vehicle the plant makes, have nosedived as consumers switch to SUVs and pickup trucks. Streb is looking for another job, but employers are wary because they assume he will quit whenever GM calls him back. "I get it," said Streb, who has a degree in communications, "but it's frustrating." Layoffs at Lordstown and other auto plants point to a broader challenge for the economy in Midwestern manufacturing states and for the Trump administration. "This is about economics, not what Trump says. Even if Trump went out and bought 10,000 Cruzes a month, he wouldn't get the third shift back here." The auto industry's boom from 2010 through last year was a major driver for manufacturing job creation. The fading of that boom threatens prospects for US industrial output and job creation that were central to Trump's victory in Ohio and other manufacturing states. "This is about economics, not what Trump says," said Robert Morales, president of United Auto Workers (UAW) union Local 1714, which represents workers at GM's stamping plant at Lordstown. "Even if Trump went out and bought 10,000 Cruzes a month, he wouldn't get the third shift back here." Last week the Federal Reserve said factory output fell 0.4 percent in May, the second decline in three months, due partly to a 2 percent drop in motor vehicles and parts production. Mark Muro, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, has compiled data from government sources that show the auto industry punching higher than its weight in job creation in recent years - accounting for between 60 percent and 80 percent of all US manufacturing jobs added in 2015 and 2016. In the first quarter of this year, the auto industry accounted for less than 2 percent of the 45,000 manufacturing jobs created. "There's no argument with the idea that auto has been pulling the manufacturing sled up the mountain for the last three or four years," Muro said.

FCA and PSA sign merger agreement

Confirming an earlier rumor, PSA Group and Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) signed a binding merger agreement to create the world's fourth-largest automaker. The partners hope to leverage the benefits of economies of scale as they develop new technologies and expand their global presence. The announcement ends FCA's years-long search for a partner, which nearly ended earlier in 2019 when it came close to merging with Renault, PSA's rival. It brings Fiat, Chrysler, Dodge, Ram, Jeep, Alfa Romeo, Maserati, Lancia, Peugeot, Citroen, DS, and Opel/Vauxhall under the same roof. That's a huge portfolio of brands that often overlap, but executives pledged to keep them all open, as well as all their respective factories as a result of the transaction. They're committed to making this big family of automakers work by building on each one's strengths, whether they're technical or regional. FCA and PSA jointly predicted they'll sell about 8.7 million cars annually around the globe, while posting an ˆ11 billion (about $12.2 million) profit. North America, a strong market for FCA, will provide 43% of its revenues, and 46% will be generated in Europe, where Peugeot's brands are doing better than ever. Together, they plan to achieve ˆ3.7 billion (about $4.1 million) in annual run-rate synergies. They'll notably have the purchasing power to negotiate a better price with suppliers, and they'll merge their research and development efforts where it makes sense to do so. Over two thirds of the group's annual volume will be built on two shared platforms. One will underpin about three million small cars annually, and the other will serve as the foundation for approximately three million compact and mid-sized cars. Details about these architectures haven't been made public yet, but a quick look at both companies' product portfolios reveals the small car will very likely come from Peugeot. Recent additions to its range, like the second-generation 208, are built on a new architecture named Common Modular Platform (CMP) developed with electric powertrains in mind. Meanwhile, Fiat is still making the cheeky 500 on an evolution of the platform found under the second-generation Panda released in 2003. The bigger architecture could come from FCA, however. The group's brands will share engines, transmissions, electric powertrains, infotainment systems, various sensors used to power electronic driving aids, and other components like wiring looms, but each one will retain its own identity.

Treasury says auto bailout tally drops to $20.3 billion

In December, the US Treasury announced that it was going to sell all of its shares in General Motors within 12 to 15 months. The first tranche of the 500-million total shares was purchased by GM, which took 200 million of them at $27.50 per share. That price represents an eight-percent premium over the market price at the time. The remaining 300 million shares will be sold "through various means in an orderly fashion."
Of the $418 billion disbursed through the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), a report in Automotive News indicates that "about 93 percent" has been paid back, and the latest figures put Treasury's loss from the program overall at $55.58 billion. That's a $4.1 billion improvement on the last figure, when the expected red ink added up to $59.68 billion. The auto industry's portion of that loss is estimated to be $20.3 billion, a 16-percent drop from the earlier estimate of $24.3 billion.
The Treasury now owns 19 percent of GM, but if all goes well, there will be no more cause for anyone to utter "Government Motors" by the end of Q1 next year. A loss of some kind is still expected, however. Although GM's stock price is close to $29 at the time of this writing, that's still $4 below its IPO price and well below the $72 share price necessary for the government to come out even on its GM investment. On second thought, maybe the ribbing will continue.