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For thousands of US auto workers, the downturn is already here

LORDSTOWN, Ohio - Wall Street is fretting that the auto industry is heading for a downturn, but for thousands of workers at General Motors factories in the United States, the hard times are already here. Matt Streb, 36, was one of 1,200 workers laid off on Jan. 20 - inauguration day for President Donald Trump - when GM canceled the third shift at its Lordstown small-car factory here. Sales of the Chevrolet Cruze sedan, the only vehicle the plant makes, have nosedived as consumers switch to SUVs and pickup trucks. Streb is looking for another job, but employers are wary because they assume he will quit whenever GM calls him back. "I get it," said Streb, who has a degree in communications, "but it's frustrating." Layoffs at Lordstown and other auto plants point to a broader challenge for the economy in Midwestern manufacturing states and for the Trump administration. "This is about economics, not what Trump says. Even if Trump went out and bought 10,000 Cruzes a month, he wouldn't get the third shift back here." The auto industry's boom from 2010 through last year was a major driver for manufacturing job creation. The fading of that boom threatens prospects for US industrial output and job creation that were central to Trump's victory in Ohio and other manufacturing states. "This is about economics, not what Trump says," said Robert Morales, president of United Auto Workers (UAW) union Local 1714, which represents workers at GM's stamping plant at Lordstown. "Even if Trump went out and bought 10,000 Cruzes a month, he wouldn't get the third shift back here." Last week the Federal Reserve said factory output fell 0.4 percent in May, the second decline in three months, due partly to a 2 percent drop in motor vehicles and parts production. Mark Muro, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, has compiled data from government sources that show the auto industry punching higher than its weight in job creation in recent years - accounting for between 60 percent and 80 percent of all US manufacturing jobs added in 2015 and 2016. In the first quarter of this year, the auto industry accounted for less than 2 percent of the 45,000 manufacturing jobs created. "There's no argument with the idea that auto has been pulling the manufacturing sled up the mountain for the last three or four years," Muro said.

Fiat Chrysler and Renault are in advanced partnership talks

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and Renault are in advanced discussions about a possible alliance, according to a report from the Financial Times citing an anonymous "person familiar with the matter." The news isn't particularly surprising, as FCA has been a constant subject of merger and alliance talks for as long as many of us can remember. We've reported on a potential tie-up between these two automakers several times, as far back as 2008 and as recently as two months ago. FCA CEO Mike Manley has mentioned the company's openness to merging with another automaker. At the Geneva Motor Show a few months back, he said, "We have a strong independent future, but if there is a partnership, a relationship or a merger which strengthens that future, I will look at that." It's no secret that FCA is much stronger in the United States than it is in Europe. For its part, Renault has basically zero presence in the United States. A partnership or potential alliance between the two could shore up each automaker's weak spots and allow the group to split investment money into new technologies, including electric vehicles and autonomy. Of course, Renault is already tied up with Nissan and Mitsubishi, but that partnership has been a little tattered since the arrest of former Nissan and Renault CEO Carlos Ghosn on charges of financial misconduct in Japan. And in addition to Renault, FCA is understood to have discussed various partnership strategies with the PSA Peugeot Citroen group. What a final agreement – if there's any agreement at all – could look like between the two global automakers remains to be seen, and the report from Financial Times cautions that many different options for FCA and Renault are currently on the table. In other words, stay tuned.

Detroit 3 and UAW could create healthcare pool

Healthcare costs continue to multiply in the US with no clear end in sight, but the United Auto Workers and the Big Three are negotiating a way to rapid growth under control. As part of the latest contract talks, the union has an idea to create a healthcare pool across all of its members at Ford, General Motors, and FCA US. If accepted, the company-wide integration would spread out the expenses and create a massive member base for bargaining with insurance companies. Both Ford and GM are at least considering the proposal, according to The Detroit News, and FCA US might be on board, as well. The idea is the work of current UAW president Dennis Williams and is based on the similar pool for the Voluntary Employee Beneficiary Association for retirees. "I've walked through this several ways; I just don't have any other answer," Williams said to The Detroit News. "I do believe this will work. It's worked with the VEBA." Williams was elected UAW president last year and won by an overwhelming margin. He vowed no more concessions to automakers. In addition to healthcare, the two-tier wage system is another major talking point in the contract negotiation because it gives fewer benefits to entry-level workers. Higher wages are also a request. Healthcare costs are a massive expense for automakers and are expected to reach over $2 billion this year, according to The Detroit News. The payments are up nearly 50 percent or more in just the last four years.