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Analysts wary over FCA lawsuit but say emissions not as bad as VW

MILAN - Any potential fines Fiat Chrysler (FCA) may need to pay to settle a US civil lawsuit over diesel emissions will unlikely top $1 billion, analysts said, adding the case appeared less serious than at larger rival Volkswagen. The US government filed a civil lawsuit on Tuesday accusing FCA of illegally using software to bypass emission controls in 104,000 vehicles sold since 2014, which it said led to higher than allowable levels of nitrogen oxide (NOx) that are blamed for respiratory illnesses. FCA's shares dropped 16 percent in January when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first raised the accusations, adding the carmaker could face a maximum fine of about $4.6 billion. The stock has been under pressure since. Volkswagen agreed to spend up to $25 billion in the United States to address claims from owners, environmental regulators, U.S. states and dealers. FCA, which sits on net debt of 5.1 billion euros ($5.70 billion), lacks VW's cash pile but analysts said its case looked much less severe. While VW admitted to intentionally cheating, Fiat Chrysler denies any wrongdoing. Authorities will have to prove that FCA's software constitutes a so-called "defeat device" and that it was fitted in the vehicles purposefully to bypass emission controls. Even if found guilty, the number of FCA vehicles targeted by the lawsuit is less than a fifth of those in the VW case. Applying calculations used in the German settlement, analysts estimate potential civil and criminal charges for Fiat Chrysler of around $800 million at most. Barclays has already cut its target price on the stock to take such a figure into account. Analysts also noted that FCA's vehicles are equipped with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for cutting NOx emissions, so it is likely that any problem could be fixed through a software update. "Should this be the case, we estimate a total cost per vehicle of not more than around $100, i.e. around $10 million in aggregate," Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers said in a note. The estimates exclude any additional investments FCA may be asked to make in zero emissions vehicles infrastructure and awareness as was the case with VW. FCA said last week it would update the software in the vehicles in question, hoping it would alleviate the regulators' concern, but analysts said it may have been too little too late. The carmaker is also facing accusations over its diesel emissions in Europe.

Chrysler recalling 780k minivans over fire risk

Chrysler is recalling 780,000 of its Town & Country and Dodge Grand Caravan minivans from the 2010 to 2014 model years due to the possibility of circuits overheating, which can lead to a fire. Of the 780,000 total vans being recalled, Chrysler estimates that 644,850 are in the US, 106,980 are in Canada, 8,009 are in Mexico, and 20,638 are in other markets. All of the affected vehicles were built between August 25, 2010 and October 31, 2013.
Chrysler's engineers discovered that beverage spills or exposure to moisture (from rain, snow, car washes, and the like) were linked to circuits shorting in the window switch assembly. Short circuits can overheat, and thus, cause a fire.
Chrysler will contact owners and let them know when they may schedule service, at which point, the window switches will be replaced. In the interim, the automaker says that owners may visit their dealers after May 14 to have the switches disconnected.

UAW may be key to forced FCA merger with GM

Sergio Marchionne doesn't give up on a business deal easily. While outwardly not much has recently been said about FCA's attempted merger with General Motors, Marchionne might be hoping to garner a powerful, new ally that could help break things wide open. The United Auto Workers retiree health care trust is the single largest shareholder of GM with 8.7 percent of the stock, and having its support would certainly improve FCA's position in getting a deal done. "Whatever happens in terms of consolidation, it would never be done without the consent and support of the UAW," Marchionne said when FCA recently began contract talks with the UAW, The Detroit News reports. The boss is also allegedly on good terms with the union president Dennis Williams. Still, using the organization for a hostile takeover could be very difficult because of the way its votes are structured. Other activist investors might already be on board, though. Marchionne believes that consolidation in the industry is vital because automakers are investing to create the same technologies. A GM/FCA merger still has many roadblocks, though, including the fact that Marchionne's company is smaller than GM. From a regulatory perspective, the size of the merged company could raise serious anti-trust concerns among regulators, according to The Detroit News. There's also the concern for lost jobs from redundant work with the two combined businesses. Even if the UAW angle doesn't work out, there are contingency plans afoot for other merger targets. According to The Detroit News speaking to anonymous insiders, FCA bigwigs have a meeting in London on Thursday to take a close look at other options. In addition to GM, they are investigating possible deals with Volkswagen and the Renault-Nissan Alliance. In the past, PSA Peugeot Citroen and multiple Asian automakers have also been brought up as partners, and UBS has reportedly been providing financial advice on what to do.