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Analysts wary over FCA lawsuit but say emissions not as bad as VW

MILAN - Any potential fines Fiat Chrysler (FCA) may need to pay to settle a US civil lawsuit over diesel emissions will unlikely top $1 billion, analysts said, adding the case appeared less serious than at larger rival Volkswagen. The US government filed a civil lawsuit on Tuesday accusing FCA of illegally using software to bypass emission controls in 104,000 vehicles sold since 2014, which it said led to higher than allowable levels of nitrogen oxide (NOx) that are blamed for respiratory illnesses. FCA's shares dropped 16 percent in January when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first raised the accusations, adding the carmaker could face a maximum fine of about $4.6 billion. The stock has been under pressure since. Volkswagen agreed to spend up to $25 billion in the United States to address claims from owners, environmental regulators, U.S. states and dealers. FCA, which sits on net debt of 5.1 billion euros ($5.70 billion), lacks VW's cash pile but analysts said its case looked much less severe. While VW admitted to intentionally cheating, Fiat Chrysler denies any wrongdoing. Authorities will have to prove that FCA's software constitutes a so-called "defeat device" and that it was fitted in the vehicles purposefully to bypass emission controls. Even if found guilty, the number of FCA vehicles targeted by the lawsuit is less than a fifth of those in the VW case. Applying calculations used in the German settlement, analysts estimate potential civil and criminal charges for Fiat Chrysler of around $800 million at most. Barclays has already cut its target price on the stock to take such a figure into account. Analysts also noted that FCA's vehicles are equipped with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for cutting NOx emissions, so it is likely that any problem could be fixed through a software update. "Should this be the case, we estimate a total cost per vehicle of not more than around $100, i.e. around $10 million in aggregate," Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers said in a note. The estimates exclude any additional investments FCA may be asked to make in zero emissions vehicles infrastructure and awareness as was the case with VW. FCA said last week it would update the software in the vehicles in question, hoping it would alleviate the regulators' concern, but analysts said it may have been too little too late. The carmaker is also facing accusations over its diesel emissions in Europe.

Fiat board makes Chrysler merger official, approves $5.4B bond sale

Fiat's board of directors has officially approved the merger plan that will see the conglomerate's automotive operations merged with Chrysler into the new Fiat Chrysler Automobiles.
The plan essentially provides a road map for the structure of the new company. It includes provisions for Fiat shareholders - one Fiat share will translate to one share of FCA common stock. The new company will also include a loyalty voting structure, which will provide for shareholders of Fiat stock or those that have held FCA stock for at least three years. According to the plan, these shareholders would see their voting power double, with two votes for every share of FCA's common stock. The overall merger plan still needs to be approved by the company's shareholders.
In other Fiat-related news, the company's board has announced a bond issuance of four billion euro ($5.4 billion). The new bonds should provide the company with a degree of flexibility in refinancing debts associated with the merger plan.

Interested, then not: Marchionne not 'chasing' a VW merger

Update (March 15, 2017) : Automotive News reports that FCA CEO Sergio Marchionne, regarding the suggested VW and FCA merger, said in a press conference "I have no interest." He also said that he "will not call Matthias," the CEO of VW. He did add that he would be willing to entertain anything VW brings up, but he has "no intention of chasing him." Despite this, Marchionne still took a moment to reinforce his favorable stance concerning mergers and consolidation. Last week, Volkswagen's CEO Matthias Mueller effectively shut down Fiat Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne's idea of the two automakers merging. However, it seems Mueller has softened, if only just, to the idea. According to Reuters, the CEO said in a press conference he is "not ruling out a conversation." However, he did say that he would like Marchionne to discuss with him directly the possibility rather than to the media. Though this statement certainly doesn't mean such a merger is happening, it's far more open than when he said outright the company isn't in any talks with anyone at the moment. His new stance also indicates that there may be people (lawyers, accountants, etc.) behind the scenes working out possible ways a merger could work. And even though this new development makes the prospect of a merger between the two companies a bit less bleak, it's still a long way from the "will they, won't they" relationship between GM and FCA. FCA's pursuit of GM involved emailing CEO Mary Barra and the threats of a hostile takeover, the latter of which resulted in some awkward statements about hugs. Only time will tell if VW becomes open enough for Marchionne to talk about hugs again. Related Video: