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GM, Ford, Honda winners in 'Car Wars' study as industry growth continues

General Motors' plans to aggressively refresh its product lineup will pay off in the next four years with strong market share and sales, according to an influential report released Tuesday. Ford, Honda, and FCA are all poised to show similar gains as the auto industry is expected to remain healthy through the rest of the decade. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch study, called Car Wars, analyzes automakers' future product plans for the next four model years. By 2020, 88 percent of GM's sales will come from newly launched products, which puts it slightly ahead of Ford's 86-percent estimate. Honda (85 percent) and FCA (84 percent) follow. The industry average is 81 percent. Toyota checks in just below the industry average at 79 percent, with Nissan trailing at 76 percent. Car Wars' premise is: automakers that continually launch new products are in a better position to grow sales and market share, while companies that roll out lightly updated models are vulnerable to shifting consumer tastes. Though Detroit and Honda grade out well in the study, many major automakers are clumped together, which means large market-share swings are less likely in the coming years. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts the industry will top out with 20 million sales in 2018 and then taper off, perhaps as much as 30 percent by 2026. Not surprisingly, trucks, sport utility vehicles and crossovers will be the key battlefield in the next few years, Car Wars says. FCA will launch a critical salvo in 2018 with a new Ram 1500, followed by new generations of the Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra in 2019, and then Ford's F-150 for 2020, according to the study. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy said the GM trucks could be pulled ahead even earlier to 2018, prompting Ford to respond. "This focus on crossovers and trucks is a great thing for the industry," Murphy said. Cars Wars looks at Korean (76 percent replacement rate) and European companies more vaguely (70 percent), but argues their slower product cadence and lineups with fewer trucks puts them in weaker positions than their competitors through 2020. Related Video: This content is hosted by a third party. To view it, please update your privacy preferences. Manage Settings. Featured Gallery 2016 Chevrolet Silverado View 11 Photos Image Credit: Chevrolet Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Nissan Toyota study FCA

Four-horse race opens up for next Chrysler-Fiat CEO

There are some companies that could change leadership overnight and still remain more or less the operations that they are. But some have built themselves up around one central figure. Just ask Carlos Tavares, who found he couldn't escape the long shadow of Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn. Tavares recently left to find his own limelight. But Ghosn isn't the only executive who presides over two disparate automakers on opposite ends of the globe.
Having built up Fiat and Chrysler around himself, we can hardly imagine either automaker getting along without Sergio Marchionne. But the day will come when the famously sweater-clad bigwig will step down. The pressing questions remain when when that day will come, and who will take his place. The only solid clues we have are in the statements made mostly by Marchionne himself, but those statements have been all over the place. When speaking to Automotive News in 2012, he said he would step down "no earlier than 2013, no later than 2015." But a year later, he had already seemingly changed his tune, indicating he could still be at the helm in 2016. Fiat chairman John Elkann seems to think Marchionne, 61, could and should stay on longer.

Dodge Grand Caravan reportedly will cease production in 2020

The Dodge Grand Caravan looks like it may finally be reaching its demise next year. A report from Automotive News Canada says the old Dodge minivan will cease production in May 2020. The report cites AutoForecast Solutions as the source of its news. FCA confirmed to us that the van will be going away eventually, but the company is not ready to put an official end date on it yet. For the time being, it looks like the Grand Caravan’s long run will eventually grind to a halt in Windsor, Ontario, the vanÂ’s only production site. With the introduction of the Chrysler Voyager as the budget minivan option from Chrysler, FCA may think it no longer has any use for the outdated Dodge. The Grand Caravan has a starting price of $28,535, whereas the new Voyager is priced from $28,480. ThatÂ’s an almost identical starting point, but we still donÂ’t know what kind of incentives FCA will offer for the Voyager. There are typically big cuts for the Grand Caravan, which have pushed recent average transaction prices down to $24,972. We imagine itÂ’ll be much more difficult for FCA to offer discounts of that magnitude to Voyager shoppers. Still, AutoForecast Solutions told Automotive News it believes FCA will transition folks away from the Grand Caravan. “For the 2020 model year, theyÂ’ll likely run to fleet and then get the consumers to buy the new Voyager,” says Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions. Eliminating the Grand Caravan would be a strong bet on ChryslerÂ’s strategy of splitting the Pacifica into two different model lines. Nearly every month, FCA sells more Grand Caravans than Pacificas. The Pacifica is the far superior minivan to own, but you canÂ’t argue with a cheap price. Once the Grand Caravan is gone, budget minivan buyers will have no choice but to buy a Voyager if they want the cheapest new option out there. Entries from the few other manufacturers that produce minivans are all going to be more expensive than the Voyager. The 2020 Pacifica and Voyager team are slated to reach dealers later this year, but it wonÂ’t be until next year that weÂ’re able to fully take stock of how this plays out for FCA.