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Analysts wary over FCA lawsuit but say emissions not as bad as VW

MILAN - Any potential fines Fiat Chrysler (FCA) may need to pay to settle a US civil lawsuit over diesel emissions will unlikely top $1 billion, analysts said, adding the case appeared less serious than at larger rival Volkswagen. The US government filed a civil lawsuit on Tuesday accusing FCA of illegally using software to bypass emission controls in 104,000 vehicles sold since 2014, which it said led to higher than allowable levels of nitrogen oxide (NOx) that are blamed for respiratory illnesses. FCA's shares dropped 16 percent in January when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first raised the accusations, adding the carmaker could face a maximum fine of about $4.6 billion. The stock has been under pressure since. Volkswagen agreed to spend up to $25 billion in the United States to address claims from owners, environmental regulators, U.S. states and dealers. FCA, which sits on net debt of 5.1 billion euros ($5.70 billion), lacks VW's cash pile but analysts said its case looked much less severe. While VW admitted to intentionally cheating, Fiat Chrysler denies any wrongdoing. Authorities will have to prove that FCA's software constitutes a so-called "defeat device" and that it was fitted in the vehicles purposefully to bypass emission controls. Even if found guilty, the number of FCA vehicles targeted by the lawsuit is less than a fifth of those in the VW case. Applying calculations used in the German settlement, analysts estimate potential civil and criminal charges for Fiat Chrysler of around $800 million at most. Barclays has already cut its target price on the stock to take such a figure into account. Analysts also noted that FCA's vehicles are equipped with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for cutting NOx emissions, so it is likely that any problem could be fixed through a software update. "Should this be the case, we estimate a total cost per vehicle of not more than around $100, i.e. around $10 million in aggregate," Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers said in a note. The estimates exclude any additional investments FCA may be asked to make in zero emissions vehicles infrastructure and awareness as was the case with VW. FCA said last week it would update the software in the vehicles in question, hoping it would alleviate the regulators' concern, but analysts said it may have been too little too late. The carmaker is also facing accusations over its diesel emissions in Europe.

Nissan is optimistic about FCA partnership, but wants the right terms

BEIJING – Nissan is optimistic about partnering with a combined Renault and Fiat Chrysler (FCA), as long as it can protect the ownership of technology developed over two decades of working with Renault, a senior executive told Reuters. The executive, who declined to be identified because he is not authorized to speak to the media, said he was cautiously optimistic about the possibility of generating "synergies" by sharing Nissan's autonomous drive know-how, electrification and greenhouse-gas-scrubbing technologies for powertrains. But he said the possible $35 billion merger of Renault and FCA would not give FCA the automatic right to use those technologies, which it needs to meet stringent emissions regulations and better compete in a industry being transformed by electric vehicles. He also floated the possibility that Nissan could look at boosting its stake in Renault, or a merged Renault-FCA, to gain more say in shaping the future of the alliance. "We would go ahead with partnering or cooperating with FCA only if we can guarantee tangible benefits from sharing technologies with FCA and only if we can work out conditions that are satisfactory to us," the Yokohama-based executive said. "If Renault wants to pursue this deal, we feel we need to look seriously at supporting them," he said. The executive's comments highlight how Nissan could look to leverage its advanced technology to gain greater bargaining power with a merged Renault-FCA. Renault is Nissan's top shareholder with a 43.4% shareholding, while Nissan holds a 15% non-voting stake in the French automaker. That unequal partnership has long rankled Nissan, which is the bigger company by far. A Nissan spokesman referred Reuters to a statement issued on Monday, where Nissan Chief Executive Hiroto Saikawa said: "I believe that the potential addition of FCA as a new member of the alliance could expand the playing field for collaboration and create new opportunities for further synergies." "That said, the proposal currently being discussed is a full merger which — if realized — would significantly alter the structure of our partner Renault. This would require a fundamental review of the existing relationship between Nissan and Renault," Saikawa said, adding that Nissan would analyze and consider its "existing contractual relationships". BOOSTING STAKE?

4 ways FCA-PSA merger could be a plus

DETROIT — In a merger deal announced overnight, Fiat Chrysler stands to gain electric vehicle technology while PSA Peugeot Citroen could benefit from a badly needed dealership network to reach its goal of selling vehicles in the U.S. The merger would create the world's fourth-largest automaker with a combined market value of around $50 billion. Neither company would comment. Experts say the two automakers will be able to share car, SUV and commercial vehicle designs, helping each other fill weaknesses and share costs that will make them a strong global player. "We view the combination of these two companies as reasonable given global competition, high capital intensity, and industry disruption from electrified powertrain as well as autonomous technologies," Morningstar analyst Richard Hilgert wrote in a note to investors. Here are four areas that could be crucial to the two automakers' success: Technology For years, Fiat Chrysler has lagged its rivals in electric vehicle technology, with its former CEO once trying to discourage people from buying its only fully electric car in the United States, the Fiat 500E, because he lost money on each sale. The company has made progress on gas-electric hybrids and may have plans for more fully electric vehicles, but PSA has valuable technology that FCA can use, said Navigant Research analyst Sam Abuelsamid. Peugeot was relatively late to the electric vehicle game but is now working fast to catch up, notably with fellow French rival Renault. CEO Carlos Tavares has made a point of stressing the company's need to adapt to changing technology at car shows and earnings calls. Last year he announced plans to offer 40 electric models across its lineup by 2025. "Electrification hasn't been a huge part of their play up until now," Abuelsamid said. "Between the two of them, I think they could generate some scale for whatever they're doing, sharing component costs, development costs across electrical platforms," he said. More electric vehicles also would help FCA meet pollution and fuel economy regulations in Europe. As far as autonomous vehicles, neither company is among the leaders, Abuelsamid said. But that's a technology that's years into the future, giving them time to share the huge expenses and catch up together. FCA also has alliances with other companies such as Google spinoff Waymo that could bring autonomous vehicle technology to the market when ready, Abuelsamid said.