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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

GM will stop reporting monthly U.S. vehicle sales

DETROIT — General Motors said on Tuesday it will stop reporting monthly U.S. vehicle sales, saying the 30-day snapshot does not accurately reflect the market, and will instead issue quarterly sales. GM will also no longer report monthly sales in China, its largest market, and Brazil. GM will provide monthly data to the U.S. Federal Reserve, industry associations and government agencies across the globe, but that data is not made public. Analysts and investors rely on monthly U.S. vehicle sales not just to track the performance of individual automakers, but as a barometer of the health of the world's second-largest auto market and as an indicator of consumer confidence in the U.S. economy overall. GM and its Detroit rivals Ford and Fiat Chrysler have relied heavily on sales of high-margin pickup truck and SUV sales to boost profits. GM's total U.S. sales, its second-largest market, are down 3.2 percent for the first two months of 2018, reflecting a 6.8 percent drop in retail sales to individual customers, the company reported last month. GM executives have expressed frustration that comparisons of monthly U.S. sales results among rival automakers are distorted by short-term discount programs, and by differences in strategy for selling vehicles in bulk to rental car fleets. "Thirty days is not enough time to separate real sales trends from short-term fluctuations in a very dynamic, highly competitive market," Kurt McNeil, U.S. vice president for sales operations said in a statement. GM's actions could prompt other automakers to also switch to quarterly U.S. sales reports. Major automakers will report March U.S. new vehicle sales on Tuesday. Until the early 1990s, most U.S. automakers released sales results every 10 days. The former Chrysler Corp. stopped reporting sales on a 10-day basis in 1990, and rivals followed suit over the next three years. GM executives are betting that investors will quickly adapt to receiving U.S. sales data every three months, as investors in other retail sectors already have. Retailers such as Walmart report sales on a quarterly basis. Reporting by Joe WhiteRelated Video: Image Credit: Reuters Earnings/Financials Green Buick Cadillac Chevrolet GM GMC US

VW, Rivian, Nissan, BMW, Genesis, Audi and Volvo lose EV tax credits starting tomorrow

The U.S. Treasury said Monday that Volkswagen, BMW, Nissan, Rivian, Hyundai and Volvo electric vehicles will lose access to a $7,500 tax credit under new battery sourcing rules. The Treasury said the new requirements effective Tuesday will also cut by half credits for the Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Rear Wheel Drive to $3,750 but other Tesla models will retain the full $7,500 credit. Vehicles losing credits Tuesday are the BMW 330e, BMW X5 xDrive45e, Genesis Electrified GV70, Nissan Leaf , Rivian R1S and R1T, Volkswagen ID.4 as well as the plug-in hybrid electric Audi Q5 TFSI e Quattro and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) electric Volvo S60. The Swedish carmaker is 82%-owned by China’s Zhejiang Geely Holding Group. The rules are aimed at weaning the United States off dependence on China for EV battery supply chains and are part of President Joe Biden's effort to make 50% of U.S. new vehicle sales by 2030 EVs or PHEVs. Hyundai said in a statement it was committed to its long-range EV plans and that it "will utilize key provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act to accelerate the transition to electrification." Rivian declined to comment and the other automakers could not immediately be reached for comment. Treasury also disclosed General Motors electric Chevrolet Bolt and Bolt EUV will qualify for the full $7,500 tax credit. GM said earlier it expected at least some of its EVS would qualify for the $7,500 tax credit under the new rules, including the 2023 Cadillac Lyriq and forthcoming Chevrolet Equinox EV SUV and Blazer EV SUV. Treasury said all GM EVs will qualify. Earlier, Ford Motor and Chrysler-parent Stellantis said most of their electric and PHEV models would see tax credits halved to $3,750 on April 18. Treasury confirmed the automakers' calculations. The rules were announced last month and mandated by Congress in August as part of the $430 billion Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The IRA requires 50% of the value of battery components be produced or assembled in North America to qualify for $3,750, and 40% of the value of critical minerals sourced from the United States or a free trade partner for a $3,750 credit. The law required vehicles to be assembled in North America to qualify for any tax credits, which in August eliminated nearly 70% of eligible models and on Jan. 1 new price caps and limits on buyers income took effect.