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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

What car should James Robertson buy to drive his famous 21-mile commute?

The Internet has been abuzz this week with the story of Detroit resident James Robertson, the 56-year-old factory worker who has walked some 21 miles to work for the last 10 years. The Detroit Free Press brought Robertson's story to the fore, helping an online fundraising campaign to generate more than $275,000 (as of this writing). The original goal was just $5,000, or about enough to replace the used Honda that died on Robertson back in 2005, and left him walking. So, newly flush with funds, what's the perfect car for Robertson to buy? Let's look at the specifics of his situation, and try to pick out the best options. Here's what we know: Robertson's commute is (famously) 21 miles; he lives in downtown Detroit (for now) and seems pretty humble, so something very flashy is probably out; former Honda aside, his ties to the city (and statements about being a Ford fan) seem to indicate a Detroit Three company product is best; he's a single guy with a girlfriend; he's got to deal with Michigan weather, and the sometimes fickle snow removal processes in The D. Here are some choices: Ford F-150 Robertson is on record as being a Taurus fan, and after a decade of walking I've no doubt that the big sedan would offer a cozy respite. Still, as a car guy and a student of the industry, I'd have a hard time recommending a sedan so clearly in need of replacement. Especially when The Blue Oval has such great stuff within the rest of its roster. The 2015 F-150 seems almost perfect for Robertson. Opting for either of the new EcoBoost V6 engines should help keep fuel bills in reasonable check, while healthy ride height and four-wheel drive will get him to work on time even during the snowiest of snow days. Better still, with a fat options sheet and car-like ride quality, Robertson can have just about every amenity he might want, in a package that won't disrespect his blue-collar roots. Chevrolet Colorado You guys saw this one coming, right? The smaller footprint of the midsize Chevy pickup, relative to some of the other options here, should be an advantage for urban parking and driving. And again, 4x4 is an option for the nasty weather, the running costs should stay pretty low and there aren't many tech/luxury features that can't be had in-cabin. I'd go ahead and splash out on the Crew Cab bodystyle, too, just in case Robertson feels like starting a carpool.

Cadillac could base its entry-level sedan on the Chevy Cruze [UPDATE]

UPDATE: Cadillac spokesperson Donny Nordlicht tells Autoblog , "The post speculating on a future Cadillac model derived from the Chevrolet Cruze is completely false." Premium automakers Mercedes-Benz and Audi have seen plenty of success with new small front-drive-based sedans. The CLA-Class had its best January ever this year, while Audi moved more of its new A3 in 2015 than its predecessor sold in 2005 through 2010 combined. The fact that Cadillac wants a piece of that pie is no surprise, then. There's a new rumor that GM's luxury brand could launch its own compact – possibly called CT2 – to battle the Germans. Cadillac, a brand that's pushed hard to rebuild its rear-drive reputation, could develop a new entry-level model based on the front-wheel-drive 2016 Chevrolet Cruze's D2XX platform. Go ahead and make your Cimarron jokes. Sources are telling GM Inside News that a Cadillac built on the Delta platform would ditch the Cruze's turbocharged 1.4-liter four-cylinder for a 1.5-liter turbo in base models. General Motors' well received 2.0-liter turbo four would serve in higher-end models. According to GMIN, the Delta-based Cadillac would likely command a $6,000 to $9,000 premium over the Cruze, so figure $23,000 to $26,000 on the low end to $30,000 to $33,000 for something at the top of the range. As much as we dislike the kind of badge engineering that brought us the Cavalier-based Cadillac Cimarron in the '80s, the company has done an admirable job of distinguishing vehicles on shared platforms lately. A Delta-platform Cadillac would at least have a good basis – the new Cruze is surprisingly comfy. That said, we question GM's rationale if this rumor is indeed true. Put simply, Cadillac needs another sedan like I need another student loan payment. The company has four sedans, three of which overlap two segments, and none of which are selling very well. That's not because they're bad, but because customers want crossovers, of which Caddy has but one – the new XT5. Spending the time and money to add a fifth sedan to the mix when the company desperately needs to flesh out its CUV range would be a tremendous mistake. As much as we hate to say it, if Cadillac really wants to add a small, entry-level car to its range, it'd better be a crossover. Related Video: