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U.S. new-vehicle sales in 2018 rise slightly to 17.27 million [UPDATE]

DETROIT — Sales of new vehicles in the U.S. rose slightly in 2018, defying predictions and highlighting a strong economy. Automakers reported an increase of 0.3 percent over a year ago to 17.27 million vehicles. The increase came despite rising interest rates, a volatile stock market, and rising car and truck prices that pushed some buyers out of the new-vehicle market. Industry analysts and automakers said strong economic fundamentals pushed up sales and should keep them near historic highs in 2019. "Economic conditions in the U.S. are favorable and should continue to be supportive of vehicle sales at or around their current run rate," Ford Chief Economist Emily Kolinski Morris said after the company and other automakers announced their sales numbers Thursday. That auto sales remain near the 2016 record of 17.55 million is a testimonial to the strength of the economy, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. The job market, he said, has created new employment, and wage growth has accelerated. "That's fundamental to selling anything," he said. "If there are lots of jobs and people are getting bigger paychecks, they will buy more." The unemployment rate is 3.7 percent, a 49-year low. The economy is thought to have grown close to 3 percent last year, its best performance in more than a decade. Consumers, the main driver of the economy, are spending freely. The Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate four times in 2018 but is only expected to raise it twice this year. Auto sales also were helped by low gasoline prices and rising home values, Zandi said. It all means that people are likely to keep buying new vehicles this year even as they grow more expensive. The Edmunds.com auto-pricing site estimates that the average new vehicle price hit a record $35,957 in December, about 2 percent higher than the previous year. It will be harder for automakers to keep the sales pace above 17 million because they have been enticing buyers for several years now with low-interest financing and other incentives, Zandi said. He predicts more deals in the coming year as job growth slows and credit tightens for higher-risk buyers. Edmunds, which provides content, including automotive tips and reviews, for distribution by The Associated Press, predicts that sales will drop this year to 16.9 million.

Deep discounts — $12K, $13K, $16K — are fueling a pickup price war

Heavy discounts of up to $16,000 per vehicle are fueling a "truck war" among full-size pickups sold in the United States by the Detroit Three, a Reuters analysis shows. Strong U.S. sales this year of the highly profitable big trucks have helped offset lagging passenger car sales. But it is not clear how much of the truck demand is linked directly to ample factory incentives and dealer discounts, or how far sales might decline without those subsidies. A Reuters survey of Ford, General Motors Co's Chevrolet and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles's Ram truck dealers across the United States indicates stores are offering deep discounts the country's bestselling full-size pickup trucks. "The walls are not crashing down on full-size trucks," said Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions in Chester Springs, Pennsylvania. Detroit-based automakers want to keep cranking out their high-margin trucks, he added, and "giving up a little of the profit is the cheapest way to do it." Stores are offering discounts of up to $12,000 on the 2018 Ford F-150, which remains the best-selling vehicle in the country, recording more than 80,000 sales in May. Discounts run up to $13,000 on the 2018 Chevrolet Silverado and as high as $16,000 on the Ram 1500. Average transaction prices for full-size pick-ups range from around $42,000 to $45,000, industry analysts and automakers say. All three companies are spending furiously - GM and Fiat Chrysler to help sell off carryover 2018 trucks to prepare for redesigned 2019 models, and Ford to sustain its long-held sales crown. A supplier fire that temporarily shut down production of the F-150 last month "changed the game," said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive in Troy, Michigan said. The supply halt nudged Ford's crosstown rivals "to ratchet up incentives on the current models to go after weakness at Ford," he said. Deals advertised on the companies' official websites range from rebates and low-interest loans to ultra-cheap lease rates, but they are not telling the whole story. Ford, for instance, advertises a $2,000 rebate and a $500 financing credit on sales of certain F-150 models. But James Collins Ford in Louisville, Kentucky, is offering discounts of up to $12,215 on the 2018 F-150 XLT SuperCrew 4x4. The price cuts are even steeper at a number of GM and Fiat Chrysler dealers. Quirk Chevrolet is selling the 2018 Silverado 1500 Double Cab at $13,000 off sticker.

IIHS: High numbers of drivers treat partially automated cars as fully self-driving

WASHINGTON — Drivers using advanced driver assistance systems like Tesla Autopilot or General Motors Super Cruise often treat their vehicles as fully self-driving despite warnings, a new study has found. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS), an industry funded group that prods automakers to make safer vehicles, said on Tuesday a survey found regular users of Super Cruise, Nissan/Infiniti ProPILOT Assist and Tesla Autopilot "said they were more likely to perform non-driving-related activities like eating or texting while using their partial automation systems than while driving unassisted." The IIHS study of 600 active users found 53% of Super Cruise, 42% of Autopilot and 12% of ProPILOT Assist owners "said that they were comfortable treating their vehicles as fully self-driving." About 40% of users of Autopilot and Super Cruise — two systems with lockout features for failing to pay attention — reported systems had at some point switched off while they were driving and would not reactivate. "The big-picture message here is that the early adopters of these systems still have a poor understanding of the technologyÂ’s limits," said IIHS President David Harkey. The study comes as the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is scrutinizing Autopilot crashes. Since 2016, the NHTSA has opened 37 special investigations involving 18 deaths in crashes involving Tesla vehicles and where systems like Autopilot were suspected of use. Tesla did not respond to requests for comment. Tesla says Autopilot does not make vehicles autonomous and is intended for use with a fully attentive driver who is prepared to take over. GM, which in August said owners could use Super Cruise on 400,000 miles (643,740 km) of North American roads and plans to offer Super Cruise on 22 models by the end of 2023, did not immediately comment. IIHS said advertisements for Super Cruise focus on hands-free capabilities while Autopilot evokes the name used in passenger airplanes and "implies TeslaÂ’s system is more capable than it really is." IIHS in contrast noted ProPILOT Assist "suggests that itÂ’s an assistance feature, rather than a replacement for the driver." NHTSA and automakers say none of the systems make vehicles autonomous. Nissan said its name "is clearly communicating ProPILOT Assist as a system to aid the driver, and it requires hands-on operation.