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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

The USPS needs 180,000 new delivery vehicles, automakers gearing up to bid

Winning the New York City Taxi of Tomorrow tender was a huge prize for Nissan, even though the company is still working through the process of claiming its prize. The United States Postal Service has begun the process to take bids for a new delivery vehicle to replace the all-too-familiar Grumman Long Life Vehicle, and that will be a much larger plum for the automaker who wins it, perhaps worth more than six billion dollars. The Grumman LLV is an aluminum body covering a Chevrolet S-10 pickup chassis and General Motors' Iron Duke four-cylinder engine. The USPS bought them from 1987 to 1994, and the 163,000 of them still in service are a monumental drain on postal resources: they get roughly ten miles to the gallon instead of the quoted 16 mpg, drink up more than $530 million in fuel each year, and their constant repair needs like the balky sliding door and leaky windshields have led the service to increase the annual maintenance budget from $100 million to $500 million. A seat belt is about as modern as it gets for safety technology, and the USPS says that assuming things stay the same, it can't afford to run them beyond 2017. Last year it put out two triage requests for proposals seeking 10,000 new chassis and drivetrains for the Grumman and 10,000 new vehicles. The LLV is also too small for the modern mail system in which package delivery is growing and letter delivery is declining. The service says it doesn't have a fixed idea of the ideal "next-generation delivery vehicles," but it listed a number of requirements in its initial request and is open to any proposal. Carriers have some suggestions, though, saying they want better cupholders, sun visors that they can stuff letters behind, a driver's compartment free of slits that can swallow mail, and a backup camera. The request for information sent to automakers pegs the tender at 180,000 vehicles that would cost between $25,000 and $35,000 apiece, and it will hold a conference on February 18 to answer questions about the contract. GM is the only domestic maker to avow an interest, while Ford and Fiat-Chrysler have remained cagey. Yet with a possible $6.3 billion up for grabs and some new vans for sale that would be advertised on every block in the country, we have a feeling everyone will be listening closely come February 18. We also have a feeling the LeMons series is going to be flooded with Grummans come 2017. News Source: Wall Street Journal, Automotive News - sub.

Junkyard Gem: 1988 Chevrolet Spectrum Sport Coupe

Before General Motors created the Geo brand for cars built or designed by its overseas partners, the Chevrolet Division put its badges on U.S.-market versions of the Toyota Corolla Sprinter, the Suzuki Cultus and the Isuzu Gemini. Those cars were known as the Nova, the Sprint and the Spectrum, and all became Geos starting with the 1989 model year. Today's Junkyard Gem is one of the last Chevy Spectrums ever sold, found in a Denver self-service yard a few months ago. Midway through 1988, the Chevrolet Spectrum abruptly became the Geo Spectrum and was assigned to the 1989 model year. This car was built in May 1988, making it one of the very last of the pre-Geo Spectrums. The Chevrolet/Geo Spectrum was available as a four-door sedan and as a three-door hatchback, from the 1985 through 1989 model years. For 1988 only, a Spectrum Sport Coupe package, featuring some trim upgrades and these rad decals, could be had on the hatchback. This car was essentially identical to its Isuzu-badged counterpart, the I-Mark. In 1988, the MSRP for the cheapest possible Chevy Spectrum hatchback (the stripped-down Spectrum Express) was $6,495, while its somewhat better-equipped I-Mark twin started at $7,439 (that's $17,128 and $19,617 in 2023 dollars). Meanwhile, the base Hyundai Excel hatchback listed at $5,295 and the Yugo GV cost a hilarious $4,199 ($13,963 and $10,941 in today's money). Power came from this 1.5-liter SOHC four-cylinder, rated at 70 horsepower. A turbocharged version with 110 horsepower was available as well. You could get an automatic transmission in the Spectrum, but this car has the base five-speed manual. This car didn't get the optional air conditioning, but at least it has the traditional Isuzu HVAC control icons featuring blow-dried hair and high-heeled dominatrix boots. Just over 170,000 miles on the odometer. Someone installed a pretty good (for the 1980s) Blaupunkt Charlotte CR148 cassette deck in the dash. This was a necessity if you wanted to enjoy full appreciation of the music of the era. The Spectrum is special! It's as slick as city rain. "I didn't spend a lot of money but with my Spectrum it looks like I did." Joe Isuzu mocked Toyota salesmen when pitching the I-Mark. As was nearly always the case during the 1980s, the JDM ads for the same car were much more fun. They should have recreated this commercial with Spectrums.