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U.S. new-vehicle sales in 2018 rise slightly to 17.27 million [UPDATE]

DETROIT — Sales of new vehicles in the U.S. rose slightly in 2018, defying predictions and highlighting a strong economy. Automakers reported an increase of 0.3 percent over a year ago to 17.27 million vehicles. The increase came despite rising interest rates, a volatile stock market, and rising car and truck prices that pushed some buyers out of the new-vehicle market. Industry analysts and automakers said strong economic fundamentals pushed up sales and should keep them near historic highs in 2019. "Economic conditions in the U.S. are favorable and should continue to be supportive of vehicle sales at or around their current run rate," Ford Chief Economist Emily Kolinski Morris said after the company and other automakers announced their sales numbers Thursday. That auto sales remain near the 2016 record of 17.55 million is a testimonial to the strength of the economy, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. The job market, he said, has created new employment, and wage growth has accelerated. "That's fundamental to selling anything," he said. "If there are lots of jobs and people are getting bigger paychecks, they will buy more." The unemployment rate is 3.7 percent, a 49-year low. The economy is thought to have grown close to 3 percent last year, its best performance in more than a decade. Consumers, the main driver of the economy, are spending freely. The Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate four times in 2018 but is only expected to raise it twice this year. Auto sales also were helped by low gasoline prices and rising home values, Zandi said. It all means that people are likely to keep buying new vehicles this year even as they grow more expensive. The Edmunds.com auto-pricing site estimates that the average new vehicle price hit a record $35,957 in December, about 2 percent higher than the previous year. It will be harder for automakers to keep the sales pace above 17 million because they have been enticing buyers for several years now with low-interest financing and other incentives, Zandi said. He predicts more deals in the coming year as job growth slows and credit tightens for higher-risk buyers. Edmunds, which provides content, including automotive tips and reviews, for distribution by The Associated Press, predicts that sales will drop this year to 16.9 million.

2016 Chevy Volt powertrain technical details

The last time General Motors launched a Chevy Volt, it was operating without really knowing how people would use the plug-in hybrid. Sure, it had experience with the EV1, but the Volt was a new kind of car, and you can see in the archives just how much time GM spent explaining this fresh, new powertrain to potential customers. Then, once the vehicle was released, the company collected voluntary data from a large number of owners to learn about their driving and charging habits. The company also asked them what they wanted most in the new version. There's got to be an algorithm buried somewhere in GM headquarters that was used to take all of the numbers GM collected and spat out the headline figures for the 2016 Volt: 50 miles of EV range and 41 miles per gallon. Another important number – price – is something GM isn't talking about yet (expect it in April or May), but the company is sharing some powertrain details about the upcoming car. At a preview lunch in Detroit last week for the SAE 2015 Hybrid & Electric Vehicles Technologies Symposium that's happening now in California, GM engineers Peter Savagian (who is presenting a paper on the new inverter used in the updated Volt) and Tim Grewe (talking about the entire second-generation powertrain) sat down with AutoblogGreen to tell us about the Volt's all-new propulsion system: The overall gist is that the new Voltec 5ET50 drive unit is lighter, smaller and more powerful thanks to a redesigned two-motor traction drive. As previously reported, the new engine is a 1.5-liter DOHC four-cylinder that offers 101-horsepower (at 5,600 RPM). Grewe said it's "great for range extension." The electric motor side of the powertrain offers 149 motoring horsepower from a two-motor, continuously variable transaxle. Initially, the new engine will be made in Mexico. GM will move production to Flint, MI during the first year it makes the 2016 Volt. The battery is slightly bigger in the new Volt – 18.4 kWh compared to 16.5 in the current-gen – and will have less range variation in the cold. GM is also using more of the overall capacity in the pack in the 2016 Volt than in previous versions, but is not saying how much more. GM is not ready to publish acceleration times just yet, but the 2016 Volt has improved numbers, especially when going from 30-60 miles per hour. Most everything on the new powertrain has become more efficient compared to the first-gen Volt.

Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.