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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

Deep discounts — $12K, $13K, $16K — are fueling a pickup price war

Heavy discounts of up to $16,000 per vehicle are fueling a "truck war" among full-size pickups sold in the United States by the Detroit Three, a Reuters analysis shows. Strong U.S. sales this year of the highly profitable big trucks have helped offset lagging passenger car sales. But it is not clear how much of the truck demand is linked directly to ample factory incentives and dealer discounts, or how far sales might decline without those subsidies. A Reuters survey of Ford, General Motors Co's Chevrolet and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles's Ram truck dealers across the United States indicates stores are offering deep discounts the country's bestselling full-size pickup trucks. "The walls are not crashing down on full-size trucks," said Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions in Chester Springs, Pennsylvania. Detroit-based automakers want to keep cranking out their high-margin trucks, he added, and "giving up a little of the profit is the cheapest way to do it." Stores are offering discounts of up to $12,000 on the 2018 Ford F-150, which remains the best-selling vehicle in the country, recording more than 80,000 sales in May. Discounts run up to $13,000 on the 2018 Chevrolet Silverado and as high as $16,000 on the Ram 1500. Average transaction prices for full-size pick-ups range from around $42,000 to $45,000, industry analysts and automakers say. All three companies are spending furiously - GM and Fiat Chrysler to help sell off carryover 2018 trucks to prepare for redesigned 2019 models, and Ford to sustain its long-held sales crown. A supplier fire that temporarily shut down production of the F-150 last month "changed the game," said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive in Troy, Michigan said. The supply halt nudged Ford's crosstown rivals "to ratchet up incentives on the current models to go after weakness at Ford," he said. Deals advertised on the companies' official websites range from rebates and low-interest loans to ultra-cheap lease rates, but they are not telling the whole story. Ford, for instance, advertises a $2,000 rebate and a $500 financing credit on sales of certain F-150 models. But James Collins Ford in Louisville, Kentucky, is offering discounts of up to $12,215 on the 2018 F-150 XLT SuperCrew 4x4. The price cuts are even steeper at a number of GM and Fiat Chrysler dealers. Quirk Chevrolet is selling the 2018 Silverado 1500 Double Cab at $13,000 off sticker.

NHTSA closes 4-year GM investigation, issues common sense advisory [w/video]

Since January 2011, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has been investigating a possible problem with corroding brake lines in General Motors' GMT800-platform models, like the Chevrolet Silverado and Suburban and GMC Sierra, in states with salt on their roads in the winter. However, as opposed to launching a full recall of millions of vehicles, the government is issuing a common-sense safety advisory to all drivers in snowy states to keep their vehicle's undercarriage clean. It even has a video explaining things. "Older-model vehicles, often driven in harsh conditions, are subject to corrosion over long periods of time, and we need owners to be vigilant about ensuring they, their passengers, and others on the roads are safe," said NHTSA Administrator Mark Rosekind in the announcement of the end of the investigation. The agency was clear in its report that "brake line corrosion seen in the GM vehicles was not unique," and the government "has not identified a defect that would initiate a recall order." Instead NHTSA is advising drivers, especially those of vehicles from before 2007, to wash their vehicle's undercarriage in the winter and spring to remove salt or other de-icing chemicals. It also recommends regular checks by a mechanic to make sure everything is in proper order. According to the investigation documents, for just the GMT800 platform models, NHTSA found 3,645 complaints of brake line corrosion, which included allegations of 107 crashes and 40 injuries. The issue was found to be more common in vehicles over 10 years old. GM has released a statement (embedded below) that the company "supports the consumer advisory from NHTSA urging regular maintenance and care of brake lines on older vehicles." NHTSA Closes Investigation into Brake-Line Failures NHTSA 13-15 Thursday, April 9, 2015 Agency issues safety advisory on preventing undercarriage corrosion WASHINGTON – The Department of Transportation's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) today issued a Safety Advisory and consumer video encouraging owners of model year 2007 and older trucks, SUVs and passenger cars to inspect brake lines and thoroughly wash the underside of their vehicles to remove corrosive salt after the long winter in order to prevent brake-line failures that increase the risk of a crash.