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Chevy, GMC and Ram dealers are worried they'll run out of new pickups

One of the unexpected side effects of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic is a shortage of pickups at Chevrolet, GMC and Ram dealers. Supplies are running out, and the factories that build these trucks remain closed. Stores across the nation began increasing incentives in March, when the first stay-at-home orders were issued, in a bid to continue luring buyers into showrooms. They also launched online sales channels, or expanded their existing digital business. Sales nonetheless plummeted in April 2020, but in-demand vehicles, like the Ram 1500 and the Chevrolet Silverado, are still selling relatively well thanks in part to the aforementioned incentives. Pickups outsold sedans for the first time in April 2020, according to The Detroit News, by 17,000 units. The problem is that General Motors, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA), and Ford temporarily closed their factories in March. "The pipeline is very dry," said Mike Maroone, the CEO of a large dealership group named Maroone USA, in an interview with Automotive News. He told the publication his Chevrolet stores are sitting on a 30-day supply of the Silverado, which is one of America's best-selling vehicles. "That is a problem for us," he concluded. Coronavirus-related lockdowns and factory closures compound problems already faced by dealerships who represent General Motors-owned brands. They entered 2020 with a thinner inventory than a year earlier due to the 40-day United Auto Workers (UAW) strike that paralyzed the company late in 2019, and the 0%, 84-month offers announced in March have sapped supply. Ram wasn't affected by a strike, but it has relied heavily on generous incentives to move trucks off lots. Ford, on the other hand, limited incentives to 2019 models. Inventory levels differ greatly from region to region. The national average for the Silverado stood at an 82-day supply in March 2020, down from 120 in March 2019. Ram stores had a 114-day supply of the 1500 (compared to 134 a year earlier), while Ford bucked that trend with a 111-day supply versus 84 in 2019. Don't panic if you're in the market for a truck; we're not facing a complete drought. Automotive News added that America's light-duty pickup inventory could fall to 400,000 units by the end of May, and drop further to 260,000 units in June. For context, there were about 700,000 light-duty trucks in stock in May and June of 2019. That's unquestionably a sharp drop, but there will still be over a quarter of a million trucks to choose from.

Trucks and tidbits from GM's earnings report

General Motors announced this morning that 2018 was a good year for it financially, thanks in large part to the company's performance in North America, which was predicated, according to the company, on "strong pricing, surging crossover sales, successful execution of the company's full-size truck launch, growth of GM Financial earnings, and disciplined cost control." GM reported full-year income of $8.1 billion and EBIT-adjusted income of $11.8 billion. Crossover sales in 2018 were 1,034,808, an increase of 7 percent compared to 2017 deliveries. Throw in the body-on-frame SUVs and the ute number is a total 1,295,700. But let's face it: It is the trucks that really matter. The Chevy Silverado and Colorado, the GMC Sierra and Canyon. Altogether, GM sold 973,463 pickups in the U.S. in 2018. Although Ford gets bragging rights for F-Series sales, GM gets to point out that it has a greater aggregate number. An important factor regarding the trucks and the reported income is that during the last quarter, more than 90 percent of the new 2019 trucks were crew cabs (which have a higher sticker), and at GMC more than 70 percent were Denali and AT4 models (which have even higher stickers). According to reporting by Bloomberg, GM's pickup trucks combine for $65 billion in annual revenue. Clearly when the 2018 sales of the Silverado — 585,581— dwarf the combined sales of both Buick (206,863) and Cadillac combined (154,702), pickups are what matter to the overall health of the company in a way that it is difficult to otherwise achieve. The "disciplined cost control" is something that is very much in the public eye right now, as the company is taking out thousands of its workers, and there is still the "unallocated" plant situation and other plants that will remain under capacity. The numbers in GM's earnings report probably made Unifor members' heads explode in consternation, coming fresh off their Super Bowl ad: " GM, you may have forgotten our generosity, but we'll never forget your greed." But there are a couple of curiosities in the full GM earnings release. One is that so far as its autonomous efforts go, it mentions only that (1) in the first quarter of 2018 Cruise introduced a production-ready autonomous vehicle, and (2) Cruise attracted $5 billion in external capital from SoftBank and Honda. Not a whole lot of love for autonomy. Good thing they have the trucks to fund the program, to say nothing of the external capital.

GM profits threatened by glut of pickups

Automotive News reports that General Motors may slash production or ramp up discounts in order to deal with an oversupply of pickup trucks. GM currently has more than double the standard supply of pickups, and the vehicles are threatening to dampen the automaker's profits for 2013. Typically, automakers try to sustain a 60- to 75-day supply of vehicles, but GM is currently loaded with a 139-day supply, as of last month. At the end of November, the automaker was sitting on 245,853 units.
The manufacturer says that it will adjust production accordingly before laying any incentives on the profitable pickups. Even so, there's some concern that the inventory swell could hurt the roll-out of the next-generation Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra. GM actually began slowly stepping back production in August, but it's clear the company will take further action as it heads toward the end of the year and into the next. Analysts predict the automaker could reduce pickup manufacturing by nearly half in the first quarter of 2013.
That still may not be enough to keep GM from laying extra cash on the Silverado and GMC Sierra. While the company's incentive spending was down in November compared to the same month in 2011, both the Ram 1500 and Ford F-150 saw double-digit percentage increases in sales last month while the Silverado and Sierra numbers slid compared to a year prior. Incentive spending could help move more trucks and add some balance to the GM inventory surge.