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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

Chevrolet Malibu could last until 2024 before joining the dodo

Automotive News pieced together all available intel on the Chevrolet and GMC lineups, trying to ascertain how much life each model might have left. Concerning the Chevrolet Malibu, the answer is not too much, and the historic nameplate's final years don't look like the glory kind. After a major overhaul in 2016 boosted sales for the ninth-generation sedan to 227,881 units, the 2018 sales fell to 144,542, and this year's are down almost 15% through the end of June. The Malibu is one of two Chevrolet sedans still breathing - the other being the Impala for now - but only for about five more years. AN says there'll likely be a refresh in 2022, followed by a visit from the Reaper in 2024. After that, it could be "indirectly replaced" by an electric vehicle, one of the 23 EVs that GM is working on for 2023.     The Impala will meet the ax earlier despite a recent stay of execution. Production is still set to close in January 2020. In the entire GM stable, Cadillac might soon be the only marque with sedans. The Buick LaCrosse has a date with death, and Groupe PSA won't supply Opels-as-Regals forever.  The Sonic hatchback should say goodbye at the end of 2020, a year before the seemingly eternal Spark is thought to die. Two years after that, according to one report, the Camaro will go back into cold storage, perhaps forever, and AN says an "expected redesign of the car in 2021 was reportedly canceled." Finally, let's give one final shout-out to the Chevrolet Cruze, a global nameplate, which in the United States alone outsells the Malibu, outsold the Camaro by a factor of three last year, and absolutely trounces the Impala, Sonic, and Spark. Even that couldn't get a stay of execution. In more uplifting news, everything's happening on the crossover and truck side in the next few years. The Chevy Bolt is due for a refresh next year, even though it has "become more important for self-driving ride-hailing fleets that GM Cruise plans to operate than for consumers." In 2021, the Bolt-based crossover should bow, first in China, then here. It's said to look like "a mix of the Bolt and Trax" in spy shots. Still waiting for a green light: a possible subcompact GMC crossover called Granite that might make it to market by 2023. The full-sized SUV triplets Tahoe, Suburban, and Yukon could show their new faces in 2020. The Silverado might get an updated interior in 2020 or 2021, while the Colorado and Canyon mid-sized pickups won't get attention until perhaps 2023.

2016 Chevrolet Spark lights up New York

The little Spark has been somewhat of a surprising entry in the modern Chevy lineup in the US. Given its diminutive stature, you might have expected the slightly larger Sonic to cannibalize the tiny sibling's sales, but that hasn't happened. The Bowtie moved 39,159 Sparks in the US in 2014, a 14.7 percent boost from the previous year. Now at the 2015 New York Auto Show, the latest generation is being unveiled with a new engine and much improved styling. Replacing the current 1.2-liter four-cylinder is an all-aluminum 1.4-liter unit making 98 horsepower. That still doesn't sound like much, but it's 16 percent more than the 2015 Spark. The new mill can be connected to either a five-speed manual or a continuously variable transmission with which Chevy estimates 40 miles per gallon highway fuel economy. The 2016 Spark also gets a longer wheelbase and 1.6-inch lower overall height. Combined with more elliptical headlights at the front, the changes make for a somewhat more sleek appearance than the current, boxy model. The platform underneath is more rigid as well, and Chevy claims the latest underpinnings mean better handling and lower NHV levels inside. The little hatch isn't growing up too much, though, and gets a trio of new colors that sound like jellybean flavors: Toasted Marshmallow, Kalamata and Splash. Chevy is packing the interior with better quality materials and improved tech. Chevy's latest seven-inch MyLink system sits in the center stack with a capacitive touchscreen, and it now comes with a physical volume control and other buttons for easier use. All models also get a rearview camera, and a LCD instrument cluster remains in front of the driver. The available suite of safety systems includes Forward Collision Alert, Lane Departure Warning and Side Blind Spot Alert. The 2016 Spark goes on sale in the US in the fourth quarter of 2015 and is produced in South Korea. Expect a gallery showing off all its new styling from the New York show floor soon.