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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

GM follows Ford and Honda in skipping SEMA

The list of automakers skipping SEMA has become longer. First reported by Muscle Cars and Trucks, and confirmed to us by a company representative, General Motors will not have an official presence at the aftermarket show. It joins Ford and Honda in leaving the show. It will be a large hole in the show, with the GM brands typically filling a significant swath of available show space in one of the main halls. GM hasn't provided much explanation for the move, either. The GM representative provided Autoblog with the same statement that Muscle Cars and Trucks got: "GM has made the decision not to participate in the 2022 SEMA Show. The SEMA show has always inspired us, and accessories and performance parts remain an important part of our business." We also asked if we would see any sort of announcements around the time of the show — Ford said it has plans to share some things around that time — however, the GM representative said that the company has no immediate plans for announcements. Certainly things could change between now and the November show, though. SEMA had previously noted that other exhibitors would help fill in some of the space vacated by these major OEMs. Another OEM, Volkswagen, is returning to the show after an absence, which will also help with the display deficit. Related Video:

Submit your questions for Autoblog Podcast #313 LIVE!

We record Autoblog Podcast #313 tonight, and you can drop us your questions and comments regarding the rest of the week's news via our Q&A module below. Subscribe to the Autoblog Podcast in iTunes if you haven't already done so, and if you want to take it all in live, tune in to our UStream (audio only) channel at 10:00 PM Eastern tonight.
Discussion Topics for Autoblog Podcast Episode #313
2014 Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra introduced