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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

Auto sales in March and first quarter down nearly across the board

Nearly every major automaker reported weak U.S. sales for March and the first quarter of 2019, citing a rough start to the year, but said a robust economy and strong labor market should encourage consumers to buy more vehicles as 2019 rolls on. GM, which no longer releases monthly sales figures, saw first-quarter sales fall 7 percent, with declines across all brands. Sales of Silverado pickup trucks fell nearly 16 percent and the high-margin Chevy Suburban large SUV dropped 25 percent. Ford also no longer releases monthly sales numbers, but is due to release its first-quarter sales figures on Thursday. According to industry data, Ford's sales fell 2 percent in the quarter and 5 percent in March. Ford representatives did not immediately respond to requests for comment. FCA reported a 7 percent fall in U.S. sales in March and a 3 percent drop for the first quarter. All of FCA's brands dropped in March, except for Ram, which saw a 15 percent increase in pickup truck sales. "The industry had a tough first quarter, but with spring finally starting to show its face and continued strong economic indicators ... we are confident that new vehicle sales demand will strengthen going forward," FCA's U.S. head of sales, Reid Bigland, said in a statement. Toyota reported a 3.5 percent fall in U.S. sales in March and 5 percent for the first quarter, hurt by declining demand for its Corolla sedans and Camry vehicles. "While some of our competitors are abandoning sedans, we remain optimistic about the future of the segment," Toyota said in a statement. Nissan posted a 5.3 percent drop in sales in March, and its first-quarter sales were down 11.6 percent. Honda and Hyundai bucked the trend. Honda's U.S. sales rose 4.3 percent in March and 2 percent in the quarter, while Hyundai's were up 1.7 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively. Passenger-car sales suffered throughout the January-March quarter compared with the same period in 2018 as Americans continued to abandon them in favor of larger, more comfortable pickup trucks and SUVs, which are far more profitable for automakers. The battle for market share in the particularly lucrative large-pickup truck market intensified in the quarter, as Fiat Chrysler Automobiles' Ram brand outsold the U.S.' No. 1 automaker General Motors' Chevrolet-brand trucks. The two automakers have both launched redesigned pickup trucks.

GM alerting truck and sedan owners to a do-over on brake recall

A recall campaign intended to address issues with braking systems on certain 2019 General Motors trucks and sedans may have introduced a new issue, the automaker has acknowledged, and thousands of owners driving repaired vehicles may need to return to their service departments for another update.  The update addresses a fix that was pushed out to owners of more than half a million brand-new GM trucks and sedans that could potentially lose partial braking function, according to the Detroit Free Press. The original software fix helped address situations where the vehicles' anti-lock braking systems would become disabled, which in turn would prevent electronic stability control from activating. Vehicles subject to the recall would often experience software glitches that prevented them from properly communicating the operational state of these systems, meaning drivers would have no idea that their brakes may not behave as expected in an emergency. The 2019 Chevrolet Silverado 1500, Cadillac CT6, and GMC Sierra 1500 were all recalled in the original campaign.  Unfortunately, the early version of this fix appears to have introduced yet another software glitch, indicating that the original fix did not do the trick. Those who have not yet had their cars serviced can rest easy; they will only receive the most up-to-date version of the software fix.  Related video