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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

Chevy Express, GMC Savanna reportedly ending production for 2025

The oldest commercial vans on the market may only have a few years left, according to a report from Autoweek. The news outlet cited a "competitive analysis source" in saying that the Chevy Express and GMC Savanna commercial vans would be discontinued after the 2025 model year. They would then be replaced by a new electric van, likely Ultium-platform based, for the 2026 model year. We reached out to GM for comment, and this is the official statement sent to us: "We have said in the past that as part of GM’s larger EV acceleration plans that we will add two new vehicles to our commercial portfolio. The first is a full-sized battery electric cargo van and the second is a medium-duty truck that will put both Ultium and our Hydrotec hydrogen fuel cell technology to work. We have not disclosed timing, names or shared any other details, so any articles reporting more are purely speculative." The GM vans are mighty old, having been introduced for the 1996 model year. They've barely changed since then, having received just some facelifts and updated powertrains over the years. And with GM's electrification plans, we're not surprised that these vans will be on the way out. We do have some disagreement about the reported timeline for replacement, though. We suspect that the upcoming electric vans will overlap with the old vans for at least a year. The reason being that there are a lot of these vans on the road, and there are a lot of pieces of equipment that fit them. Box vans, buses and more have components that have been designed for the Express and Savanna. If you're a fleet that has invested in these components, you might not be ready to shift over to a whole new platform. So GM will probably want to give fleet buyers one last opportunity to replace any old vans before committing entirely to a new electric van platform. It will also be interesting to see what kind of market the GM electric vans enter. Ford already has its electric Transit on the way, and Stellantis will be launching the Ram ProMaster electric van next year. Those are both based on existing gas-powered vans. And GM itself has already delivered the first of its larger BrightDrop EV600 electric vans to FedEx. The coming GM vans will likely be new platforms, which could give them performance and range advantages, though the Ford and Stellantis vans will have the advantage of being compatible with equipment for the gas variants.

Want a V8 on the cheap? Buy a work truck

In case you didn't notice, V8 cars have gotten pretty expensive. If you want a modern muscle car like the Dodge Challenger R/T, Ford Mustang GT, or Chevy Camaro SS, you'll need between $34,000 and $38,000 for a stripped out example of one. The cheapest of those is the Challenger, and the priciest is the Camaro. These are also the cheapest V8 cars the companies offer. But if you absolutely have to have a V8 for less, there is an option, work trucks. As it turns out, all of the Big Three offer their most basic work trucks with V8s. And because they're so basic, they're pretty affordable, especially when sticking with the standard two-wheel drive. A Ram 1500 Tradesman with a V8 can be had for as little as $29,840, which is a little more than $4,000 less than a Challenger R/T. For a bit more at $30,275, you can have a Chevy Silverado W/T, almost $8,000 less than a Camaro SS. The most expensive is the V8 Ford F-150 starts at a starting price of $30,670, which is a bit over $5,000 less than the Mustang. Of course you'll be in an ultra bare bones vehicle with few comforts, and the price will go up if you add stuff, but we're bargain hunting here, and sacrifices are sometimes necessary. Besides, what you lose in comfort, you gain in loads of cargo space and towing (try to look at the bright side). Also, as a side note, all three trucks are available with optional electronic locking rear differentials. At the discounted price of these trucks, you still get a heaping helping of power. The most potent of the trio is the Ram 1500 Tradesman with 395 horsepower and 410 pound-feet of torque generated by a 5.7-liter V8. Compared with the Challenger R/T, the Ram is up by 20 horsepower and they're tied for torque. The value proposition is even more stark between the two vehicles when looking at the price per horsepower. Each pony in the Ram costs $75.54, while the Challenger charges you $90.91. The Challenger is also more expensive per horsepower than its close competitors. The F-150's 5.0-liter V8 is just barely behind the Ram with 395 horsepower and 400 pound-feet of torque. That's still more power than the Challenger, and it matches the torque of the 2017 Mustang GT. On the down side, it still would be down 20 horsepower on that same 2017 Mustang, and it's behind by 60 horsepower and 20 pound-feet on the new 2018 Mustang GT. The F-150 also just edges out the Mustang in the dollar per horsepower measure.