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Volvo blames EU tariffs as it lowers its 2024 sales forecast

STOCKHOLM — Volvo Cars cut its full-year retail sales forecast on Thursday, blaming European tariffs on EVs made in China that will hit one of the Swedish automaker's key electric models until it shifts production to Belgium. While reporting better than expected second-quarter results that sent its shares up 6% in morning trade, Volvo lowered its forecast for sales growth this year to 12%-15%, down from 15%. "It's really driven by tariffs," CEO Jim Rowan told Reuters. "It's a short-term issue for us, but it is an issue and we're just going to have to deal with that." Rowan said that while Volvo still hoped for 15% growth, it was now providing a range given the uncertainty. "We wanted to put a floor on that for the markets to say we're still going to grow but there are some headwinds," he said. Earlier this month, the EU announced provisional tariffs of up to 37.6% on imports of EVs made in China, saying they benefited from unfair subsidies — an allegation Beijing rejects. Volvo is majority-owned by China's Geely and faces a 19.9% tariff on its Chinese-made fully-electric EX30. Rowan said the Swedish automaker faced a "minimum of six months" of tariffs until it moves EX30 production to Belgium, which is expected to start early next year. Volvo said the main ramp-up of EX30 production at its factory in Ghent was expected during the second half of 2025. Bernstein analysts said in a note that the new sales guidance was "sensible given todayÂ’s macroeconomic situation." Major automakers have seen slowing demand for EVs, driven in part by a lack of affordable models and the slow rollout of charging points. Meanwhile, U.S. and European automakers have reported strong sales of hybrids, and are rolling out more such models to meet demand. Volvo said it saw a "modest decline" in orders for fully electric models in the second quarter, but noted "demand for hybrid cars remains very strong". "We will continue to invest in this line-up and these cars form a solid bridge for our customers not yet ready to move to full electrification," Rowan told analysts in a conference call. Volvo produced 211,900 cars in the second quarter, more than it sold amid the decline in European demand for EVs. Its operating income, which includes its stake in loss-making Polestar, rose to 8 billion crowns ($758 million) from 5 billion crowns a year earlier. That topped the 6.7 billion crowns expected by analysts, LSEG data showed.

Volvo to stop funding Polestar, sees stock rise dramatically

STOCKHOLM — Volvo Cars said on Thursday it would stop funding Polestar Automotive Holding and was handing responsibility for the struggling luxury car brand over to Volvo's top shareholder China's Geely Holding. The announcement sent the Swedish automaker's stock up more than 30% at market open. The heavy involvement by Swedish-listed Volvo Cars in Polestar, where it owns around 48% of the shares, has been criticised by analysts who see the stake as a drag on Volvo's resources. Like other new EV brands and startups, Polestar has struggled to make headway, particularly since Tesla started a price war last year. The automaker said earlier this month that it had missed its already-reduced delivery targets for 2023. Polestar's shares are down just over 83% since it went public in June 2022 via a merger with a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. Volvo Cars said it has considered handing Polestar shares over to Volvo's shareholders, which would make Geely a big direct owner in the brand. Shares in Volvo were up 20% at 0814 GMT, after they soared 32% at market open. Geely in a separate statement welcomed Volvo's decision to focus its resources on its own development. "Geely Holding will continue to provide full operational and financial support to the independent exclusive (Polestar) brand going forward," the Chinese group said. "This support will not require a reduction of Geely Holding shareholding in Volvo Cars," it added. However, the broker Bernstein said it saw a distinct possibility that the Geely ecosystem could sell down its shares in Volvo. Polestar last week said it planned to cut around 450 jobs globally, or about 15% of its workforce, amid "challenging market conditions". It also said in November that it would try to reduce its reliance on external help, publishing a revised business plan, which included getting additional loans from Volvo and Geely. The news could raise questions about the viability of Polestar, which aims to become cash flow break-even in 2025. Some analysts have said it could make more sense to fold Polestar company into Geely. Volvo Cars meanwhile reported a bigger than expected rise in fourth-quarter operating earnings on Thursday, with operating income excluding joint ventures and associates rising to 6.7 billion Swedish crowns ($643.83 million) from a year-earlier 3.9 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG had expected adjusted earnings before tax and interest (EBIT) of 6.5 billion.

Volvo might join the tide of automakers turning to hybrids and PHEVs

Volvo had been the clearest and most direct of all automakers about switching to a purely electric lineup.  Less than a year after getting the XC40 Recharge to market, on March 2, 2021, the company wrote that it "intends to only sell fully electric cars and phase out any car in its global portfolio with an internal combustion engine, including hybrids." Two years later, with the C40 on dealer lots and the EX90 and EX30 in the pipeline, CFO Bjorn Annwall removed the wiggle room of "intends" by pledging Volvo won't "sell a single car" that isn't purely electric after after 2030, emphasizing the target to Automotive News with, "There's no ifs, no buts." Problem is, there are always ifs and buts, and Volvo might be the next automaker needing a tactical retreat to deal with them. After speaking to members of Volvo's U.S. dealer body, Automotive News reports a softening of the 2030 target. The most Volvo has said publicly came from CEO Jim Rowan, who told analysts during a recent investor webcast that because the EV transformation is going to take time to scale, hybrid powertrains could "form a solid bridge for our customers that are not ready to move to full electrification." According to AN, an anonymous insider said plug-in hybrids could take the lead for the next 10 years as global governments and global markets align on electric vehicles. If this turns out to be the case, Volvo would join a strengthening trend as automakers rush to develop hybrids and PHEVs to launch in the next three years.   Volvo would also be well positioned for the turn, considering buyer sentiment to the hybrids and PHEVs it's sold for many years now. The SPA1 platform supporting every Volvo with an internal combustion engine remains sound. Given development dollars and improvements in battery technology, there's no reason Volvo couldn't ride an evolution of the architecture into the next decade, and it can also take advantage of platforms and toolkits from parent company Geely. Only a year ago, Geely and Renault agreed on a joint venture to invest 7 billion euros for researching new technologies to make non-hybrid and hybrid gas engines more efficient.  This is clearly what U.S. dealers want based on their comments to AN, one retailer going so far as to say, "We will have to [stick with hybrids], or we will die."  Short term, Volvo's enduring the same pain felt by other automakers.