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Volvo blames EU tariffs as it lowers its 2024 sales forecast

STOCKHOLM — Volvo Cars cut its full-year retail sales forecast on Thursday, blaming European tariffs on EVs made in China that will hit one of the Swedish automaker's key electric models until it shifts production to Belgium. While reporting better than expected second-quarter results that sent its shares up 6% in morning trade, Volvo lowered its forecast for sales growth this year to 12%-15%, down from 15%. "It's really driven by tariffs," CEO Jim Rowan told Reuters. "It's a short-term issue for us, but it is an issue and we're just going to have to deal with that." Rowan said that while Volvo still hoped for 15% growth, it was now providing a range given the uncertainty. "We wanted to put a floor on that for the markets to say we're still going to grow but there are some headwinds," he said. Earlier this month, the EU announced provisional tariffs of up to 37.6% on imports of EVs made in China, saying they benefited from unfair subsidies — an allegation Beijing rejects. Volvo is majority-owned by China's Geely and faces a 19.9% tariff on its Chinese-made fully-electric EX30. Rowan said the Swedish automaker faced a "minimum of six months" of tariffs until it moves EX30 production to Belgium, which is expected to start early next year. Volvo said the main ramp-up of EX30 production at its factory in Ghent was expected during the second half of 2025. Bernstein analysts said in a note that the new sales guidance was "sensible given todayÂ’s macroeconomic situation." Major automakers have seen slowing demand for EVs, driven in part by a lack of affordable models and the slow rollout of charging points. Meanwhile, U.S. and European automakers have reported strong sales of hybrids, and are rolling out more such models to meet demand. Volvo said it saw a "modest decline" in orders for fully electric models in the second quarter, but noted "demand for hybrid cars remains very strong". "We will continue to invest in this line-up and these cars form a solid bridge for our customers not yet ready to move to full electrification," Rowan told analysts in a conference call. Volvo produced 211,900 cars in the second quarter, more than it sold amid the decline in European demand for EVs. Its operating income, which includes its stake in loss-making Polestar, rose to 8 billion crowns ($758 million) from 5 billion crowns a year earlier. That topped the 6.7 billion crowns expected by analysts, LSEG data showed.

Volvo might join the tide of automakers turning to hybrids and PHEVs

Volvo had been the clearest and most direct of all automakers about switching to a purely electric lineup.  Less than a year after getting the XC40 Recharge to market, on March 2, 2021, the company wrote that it "intends to only sell fully electric cars and phase out any car in its global portfolio with an internal combustion engine, including hybrids." Two years later, with the C40 on dealer lots and the EX90 and EX30 in the pipeline, CFO Bjorn Annwall removed the wiggle room of "intends" by pledging Volvo won't "sell a single car" that isn't purely electric after after 2030, emphasizing the target to Automotive News with, "There's no ifs, no buts." Problem is, there are always ifs and buts, and Volvo might be the next automaker needing a tactical retreat to deal with them. After speaking to members of Volvo's U.S. dealer body, Automotive News reports a softening of the 2030 target. The most Volvo has said publicly came from CEO Jim Rowan, who told analysts during a recent investor webcast that because the EV transformation is going to take time to scale, hybrid powertrains could "form a solid bridge for our customers that are not ready to move to full electrification." According to AN, an anonymous insider said plug-in hybrids could take the lead for the next 10 years as global governments and global markets align on electric vehicles. If this turns out to be the case, Volvo would join a strengthening trend as automakers rush to develop hybrids and PHEVs to launch in the next three years.   Volvo would also be well positioned for the turn, considering buyer sentiment to the hybrids and PHEVs it's sold for many years now. The SPA1 platform supporting every Volvo with an internal combustion engine remains sound. Given development dollars and improvements in battery technology, there's no reason Volvo couldn't ride an evolution of the architecture into the next decade, and it can also take advantage of platforms and toolkits from parent company Geely. Only a year ago, Geely and Renault agreed on a joint venture to invest 7 billion euros for researching new technologies to make non-hybrid and hybrid gas engines more efficient.  This is clearly what U.S. dealers want based on their comments to AN, one retailer going so far as to say, "We will have to [stick with hybrids], or we will die."  Short term, Volvo's enduring the same pain felt by other automakers.

Junkyard Gem: 1984 Volvo 242 DL

Volvo had tremendous success with the iconic 200 Series cars, selling them in North America from the 1975 model year all the way through 1993 (and if you count the Volvo 140, which was the same car from the A pillars rearward, the 240's history goes back to the middle 1960s). Nearly everybody who bought 240s on our continent did so in order to be safe and/or practical, which meant that the two-door version never sold anywhere near as well as its four-door and wagon brethren. Here's one of those rare 240 coupes (technically speaking, a two-door sedan), found in a San Jose car graveyard last winter. If you're going to be a stickler about the designation of this car as a two-door sedan and not as a coupe, you'll also want to call it by the name Volvo used when it was in the showroom: the 1984 Volvo DL. However, everybody in the Volvo world now prefers the original naming system that Volvo used for the 200s back home in Sweden, where you had 2 followed by a numeral indicating the number of engine cylinders and a numeral indicating the number of doors, with the trim-level code after that. So, what we have for today's Junkyard Gem is a Volvo 242 DL, i.e., the cheapest new 240 Americans could buy in 1984. You could get a turbocharged engine from the factory in the 1984 242, but this car has the ordinary naturally-aspirated 2.3-liter straight-four, rated at 111 horsepower. It also has the four-speed manual transmission with overdrive controlled by the button in the middle of the shift knob. Nearly 230,000 miles on the clock, which is decent for any 1980s car but not spectacular by Volvo 240 standards. Many Volvo enthusiasts prefer the smooth lines of the coupe to the stodgier sedans and wagons, and this one shows signs of ownership by someone who wasn't just about listening to NPR while driving safely to the natural-foods store. Sure enough, it has aftermarket springs and a non-factory rear sway bar. I wish I'd found these parts back in 2007, when I was helping to build a V8-swapped Volvo 244 road racer. The presence of the keys in a junkyard car, however, usually indicates that it was voluntarily let go by its final owner. Perhaps it was a dealership trade-in that proved to be impossible to sell due to a combination of three pedals, high miles, and lack of truck-shaped body. The interior looks like it might have been tolerable before it reached this place.