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How Norway became a world leader in EV sales, and where it goes from here

OSLO, Norway — A silent revolution has transformed driving in Norway. Eerily quiet vehicles are ubiquitous on the fjord-side roads and mountain passes of this wealthy European nation of 5.3 million. Some 30 percent of all new cars sport plug-in cables rather than gasoline tanks, compared with 2 percent across Europe overall and 1-2 percent in the U.S. As countries around the world — including China, the world's biggest auto market — try to encourage more people to buy electric cars to fight climate change, Norway's success has one key driver: the government. It offered big subsidies and perks that it is now due to phase out, but only so long as electric cars remain attractive to buy compared with traditional ones. "It should always be cheaper to have a zero emissions car than a regular car," says Climate and Environment Minister Ola Elvestuen, who helped push through a commitment to have only zero-emissions cars sold in Norway by 2025. The plan supports Norway's CO2 reduction targets under the 2015 Paris climate accord. To help sales, the Norwegian government waived hefty vehicle import duties and registration and sales taxes for buyers of electric cars. Owners don't have to pay road tolls, and get free use of ferries and bus lanes in congested city centers. These perks are being phased out in 2021, though any road tolls and fees would be limited to half of what gasoline car owners must pay. Gradually, subsidies for electric cars will be replaced by higher taxes on traditional cars. Registration tax on new cars is paid on a sliding scale with a premium for the amount of emissions produced. Elvestuen pledges that the incentives for electric vehicles will be adjusted in such a way that it does not scupper the 2025 target. "What is important is that our aim is not just to give incentives," he says. "It is that we are taxing emissions from regular cars." Using taxes to encourage consumers to shift to cleaner energy can be tricky for a government — protests have erupted in France over a fuel tax that hurt the livelihood of poorer families, especially in rural areas where driving is often the only means of transportation. In the U.S, some would like to see the tax credit on EVs and hybrids eliminated while others would extend it. In this sense, Norway is an outlier. The country is very wealthy after exporting for decades the kind of fossil fuels the world is trying to wean itself off of. Incomes are higher than the rest of Europe, as are prices.

Volvo blames EU tariffs as it lowers its 2024 sales forecast

STOCKHOLM — Volvo Cars cut its full-year retail sales forecast on Thursday, blaming European tariffs on EVs made in China that will hit one of the Swedish automaker's key electric models until it shifts production to Belgium. While reporting better than expected second-quarter results that sent its shares up 6% in morning trade, Volvo lowered its forecast for sales growth this year to 12%-15%, down from 15%. "It's really driven by tariffs," CEO Jim Rowan told Reuters. "It's a short-term issue for us, but it is an issue and we're just going to have to deal with that." Rowan said that while Volvo still hoped for 15% growth, it was now providing a range given the uncertainty. "We wanted to put a floor on that for the markets to say we're still going to grow but there are some headwinds," he said. Earlier this month, the EU announced provisional tariffs of up to 37.6% on imports of EVs made in China, saying they benefited from unfair subsidies — an allegation Beijing rejects. Volvo is majority-owned by China's Geely and faces a 19.9% tariff on its Chinese-made fully-electric EX30. Rowan said the Swedish automaker faced a "minimum of six months" of tariffs until it moves EX30 production to Belgium, which is expected to start early next year. Volvo said the main ramp-up of EX30 production at its factory in Ghent was expected during the second half of 2025. Bernstein analysts said in a note that the new sales guidance was "sensible given todayÂ’s macroeconomic situation." Major automakers have seen slowing demand for EVs, driven in part by a lack of affordable models and the slow rollout of charging points. Meanwhile, U.S. and European automakers have reported strong sales of hybrids, and are rolling out more such models to meet demand. Volvo said it saw a "modest decline" in orders for fully electric models in the second quarter, but noted "demand for hybrid cars remains very strong". "We will continue to invest in this line-up and these cars form a solid bridge for our customers not yet ready to move to full electrification," Rowan told analysts in a conference call. Volvo produced 211,900 cars in the second quarter, more than it sold amid the decline in European demand for EVs. Its operating income, which includes its stake in loss-making Polestar, rose to 8 billion crowns ($758 million) from 5 billion crowns a year earlier. That topped the 6.7 billion crowns expected by analysts, LSEG data showed.

Geely targeting US market in 2016 with help from Volvo

Following reports that it'd team up with corporate sibling Volvo on a Chinese-market car comes a report from Bloomberg that Geely would reattempt its entry into the US market. The Chinese brand had a display at the 2006 North American International Auto Show, but has been absent from the US scene ever since.
The Geely branded cars will be jointly developed with Volvo, and bank on the Swedish manufacturers reputation for safety and reliability. Geely's CEO, Gui Shengyue, explained, "Our acquisition of Volvo enhanced our image and overseas consumers are seeing us as an international company." This represents a change in rhetoric for the brand, after Geely Chairman Li Shufu hamstrung the idea of a closer pairing, citing fears that an association would harm Volvo's reputation. The news of projects between Geely and Volvo first broke last week, although it's unclear if the cars that end up coming to the US will be the same as those being sold in China.
As we reported last week, Geely is already aiming to be the biggest brand in the Chinese domestic market. With this move to the US market, it's also attempting to overtake Chery as China's largest automotive exporter. According to the Bloomberg report, Geely has already moved 180,000 units overseas, which is extremely close to the 184,800 vehicles sold by Chery in 2012. By 2018, Geely anticipates that 60 percent of its sales will be occur outside of the PRC.