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VW chair says component cost decrease keeps him confident of EV success

Volkswagen AG is in the middle of implementing a comprehensive electric vehicle strategy, one that we've been documenting for a long time. The Group stands ready to offer dozens of plug-in vehicles in the coming years if it feels there is sufficient demand and believes that selling a million EVs in Germany by 2020 is reasonable. That would be a solid number, but remember that VW sold over 5,923,000 passenger cars around the world last year, and the group as a whole sold over 9.7 million. At the company's annual Media Conference and Investor Conference in Berlin recently, the chairman of the board of VW AG - surrounded by some decidedly non-green examples of the VW Group's vehicles (some absurd new Bugatti, for example) - took some time to put the company's EV plans into focus. The upshot is that Dr. Martin Winterkorn is still guiding his electromobility ship into new waters, saying that "many more [plug-in] models will follow." Winterkorn said there are three main reasons he is confident in the ability of VW (and Audi and Porsche, at the very least) to push EV sales upward. Batteries are getting better, he said, and if the ranges can be extended, then customers are happy. But the real secret lies in reducing component costs. He said (as translated): It is important to look at the cost of the components: the battery technology, the electric motor and the electric components. Whenever you go into volume production, you of course have economies of scale. In two to three years' time, if we are able to achieve the goals we are setting for ourselves with cost and reach sufficient volume, I do believe that we can achieve two to three percent [market share] within VW Group. So, hitting a million EVs by 2020 is reachable. With the e-Golf and the e-Up off to excellent sales starts, we're willing to be confident as well.

VW and Renault end talks to develop affordable EV, sources say

PARIS/BERLIN – Volkswagen has walked away from talks with Renault to jointly develop an affordable electric version of the Twingo subcompact car, three sources familiar with the situation said, in a setback for the EU carmakers' efforts to fend off Chinese rivals. The collapse of negotiations could mean the German carmaker may have to go it alone in developing its own affordable EV. Renault will continue designing its electric Twingo, scheduled to hit the market in 2026. Both had hoped that sharing the work would cut costs that represent a key hurdle for European carmakers in the face of cheaper cars from China. Volkswagen broke off discussions mainly because Renault had wanted to build the car in one of its plants at a time when VW is seeking to fully utilize its European production network, one of the sources said. Ampere, Renault's EV operation overseeing the Twingo program, declined to comment. A spokesperson for Volkswagen also declined to comment on the talks between the companies but said that the German carmaker was still studying its options on cheap EVs. The companies "did not succeed in finding an agreement" after several months of negotiations, one of the sources said. Another source said that an agreement had been very close, but that VW walked away from the talks and has decided to develop its own car. The sources declined to be named because the talks are confidential. VW sources said a decision on the EV plan is expected within weeks. Thomas Schaefer, CEO of the Volkswagen brand, has said he wants to launch a lower-priced EV by 2027. The second source said Renault would continue work on the Twingo without VW, but also remained open to other partners, for instance from the alliance with Nissan and Mitsubishi. It is also a blow for Renault CEO Luca de Meo's hopes for greater cooperation between European carmakers against their Chinese competitors, akin to Airbus which has stakeholders and operations across European countries. The VW-Renault tie-up for the Twingo could have formed the "basis" of an Airbus for autos, the second source said. China's automakers, the world's top EV producers, are making fast inroads in the European market, pressuring incumbents like Renault and VW to cut costs and speed up the time it takes to bring a new model to market. European automakers are aiming to produce smaller EVs that sell below 20,000 euros ($21,686) to help them compete with Chinese brands like BYD.

Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.