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Bibendum 2014: Former EU President says Toyota could lose 100,000 euros per hydrogen FCV sedan

Pat Cox does not work for Toyota and we don't think he has any secret inside information. Still, he's the former President of the European Parliament and the current high level coordinator for TransEuropean Network, so when he says Toyota is likely going to lose between 50,000 and 100,000 euros ($66,000 and $133,000) on each of the hydrogen-powered FCV sedans it will sell next year, it's worth noting. That was just one highlight of Cox's presentation at the 2014 Michelin Challenge Bibendum in Chengdu, China today, which addressed the main problem of using more H2 in transportation: cost. The EU has a tremendous incentive to find an alternative to fossil fuels, since Europe today is 94 percent dependent on oil for its transportation sector and 84 percent of that 94 percent dependency is imported oil. The tab for that costs the EU a billion euros a day, Cox said, on top of the environmental costs. To encourage a shift away from petroleum, European Directive 2014/94 requires each member state to develop national policy frameworks for the market development of alternative fuels and their infrastructure. For the member states that choose to fulfill 2014/94 by developing a hydrogen market – and to be clear, Cox said, it's not an EU diktat that they do so, since a number of other alternatives are also allowed – the aim is to have things in place by the end of 2025. The plans don't even have to be submitted until the end of 2016. The long lead time is due to a quirk in a hydrogen economy. In hydrogen infrastructure, "the first-mover cost is not the first-mover advantage, but the firstmover disadvantage." – Pat Cox In deploying a hydrogen infrastructure, Cox said, "the first-mover cost is not the first-mover advantage, but the first-mover disadvantage, and high risk." That's why the EU and member states will financially support the early stages, but everyone agrees that "if this is to work, it will have to be ultimately and essentially a commercially viable and commercially driven infrastructure roll-out." Since 1986, European Union research programs have spent 550 million euros on hydrogen-related and fuel-cell-related research, including methods of hydrogen storage and distribution as well as improved fuel cells vehicles, Cox said. Expensive problems remain to be solved. At a conference in Berlin, Germany this past summer, Cox said, the unit cost of the refueling stations was identified as the main problem.

Toyota might stop importing certain models if tariffs imposed

In case you hadn't heard, the entire automotive industry, both domestic and foreign, is very much against the automotive tariffs proposed by the Trump administration. And while the industry is lobbying hard against such tariffs, companies are also having to consider what to do in the event they are passed. CEO of Toyota's North American operations, Jim Lentz, told Bloomberg that the company will certainly be reconsidering its strategy in the event of tariffs between 10 and 25 percent the cost of the car. He told the news outlet that, depending on how high the tariffs are, Toyota might just increase the price of some models, or stop importing them altogether. Toyota does build a large number of its cars here in the United States. The Toyota Camry, Avalon, Tundra, Highlander, Sequoia, Sienna models are all built here, as well as some Tacomas, Corolla sedans, and Lexus ES sedans. Many of those vehicles are big sellers for Toyota, too, so that's good for the company. But many other Toyotas are built outside the country. The Toyota RAV4, Prius range, C-HR, Corolla hatchback, Land Cruiser, 86, Yaris, Yaris sedan, Mirai, 4Runner, and the entire Lexus line are built in other countries. Some of these imports we're sure are safe no matter how high the tariffs might be. The RAV4 is the company's biggest seller, and the Prius sells well, too. Even if the Prius wasn't selling so well, the company would probably still sell it simply because it's an image builder. Somewhat related, we imagine Toyota would continue offering a handful of Mirais. The 4Runner, C-HR and Corolla hatchback would probably be safe, too. If these models stick around after potential tariffs are imposed, expect their prices to increase. But in the Toyota line, anything that's not selling well and has tight margins is probably doomed. Chief among them are the French-built Yaris hatchback and the Mexican-built Yaris iA sedan. Both cars have terrible sales, and being low-end cheap cars, they'll only sell worse with higher prices, and Toyota will lose money if it has to eat the tariff. The 86 is a similar situation in which it's a niche vehicle that has had weak sales and is being sold at a relatively low price. The Land Cruiser could go either way. It sells in small numbers, but it's already extremely expensive and continues to sell. Buyers might not be put off by spending some more.

Toyota, Morgan Spurlock say hydrogen can be bullsh*t

Toyota wants the world to know that it's not full of crap about hydrogen as the future of fuel. Months before the Mirai arrives at dealers on the West Coast, the automaker is trying to get the word out through documentary series called Fueled by Everything. In the first episode, director Morgan Spurlock (best known for Super Size Me) shows how to make the futuristic fuel cell sedan run on a load of dung. After some processing, anyway. The whole point of the series is to show viewers the myriad sources available to generate hydrogen, and Toyota starts at an attention-grabbing extreme. A pickup truck takes a bed full of cow manure and demonstrates the steps needed to make it into hydrogen for the Mirai. Of course, the new model gets lots of screen time, too. For those in the audience curious to learn more, Toyota also digs a little deeper into the generation process on the series' website. Fueled by Bullsh*t Toyota Taps Morgan Spurlock to Direct First Video in "Fueled by Everything" Series TORRANCE, Calif. (April 22, 2015) – Sometimes reality stinks. Toyota has tapped award-winning documentary filmmaker Morgan Spurlock to show how calling hydrogen fuel cell vehicles "bullsh*t" isn't far from the truth. "Fueled by Bullsh*t" is the first online video in a multi-part "Fueled by Everything" series aimed to educate a broad audience about the innovative ways hydrogen fuel can be made from renewable sources. Spurlock directed the 3-minute piece which features a dairy farmer and mechanical engineer as they follow cow manure from a mooing supply source to its ultimate use in powering the hydrogen fuel cell electric Toyota Mirai. "This project gave us the opportunity to dive into a world that most people don't understand but has the potential to change our world," said Spurlock. "Witnessing manure, something most of us view as being pretty disposable, being transformed into hydrogen fuel to power a car was pretty remarkable. I think this short film is pretty compelling evidence of what could be possible in the years ahead." Beyond high quality dung, hydrogen can be manufactured from other renewable energy sources like solar, wind and biogas from landfills. These production methods can result in a domestic and locally sourced fuel that powers the Mirai while emitting only water vapor from the tailpipe. The multi-series video campaign is launching through the Toyota Mirai website (www.toyota.com/mirai) and additional digital properties with paid online media support.