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Bibendum 2014: Former EU President says Toyota could lose 100,000 euros per hydrogen FCV sedan

Pat Cox does not work for Toyota and we don't think he has any secret inside information. Still, he's the former President of the European Parliament and the current high level coordinator for TransEuropean Network, so when he says Toyota is likely going to lose between 50,000 and 100,000 euros ($66,000 and $133,000) on each of the hydrogen-powered FCV sedans it will sell next year, it's worth noting. That was just one highlight of Cox's presentation at the 2014 Michelin Challenge Bibendum in Chengdu, China today, which addressed the main problem of using more H2 in transportation: cost. The EU has a tremendous incentive to find an alternative to fossil fuels, since Europe today is 94 percent dependent on oil for its transportation sector and 84 percent of that 94 percent dependency is imported oil. The tab for that costs the EU a billion euros a day, Cox said, on top of the environmental costs. To encourage a shift away from petroleum, European Directive 2014/94 requires each member state to develop national policy frameworks for the market development of alternative fuels and their infrastructure. For the member states that choose to fulfill 2014/94 by developing a hydrogen market – and to be clear, Cox said, it's not an EU diktat that they do so, since a number of other alternatives are also allowed – the aim is to have things in place by the end of 2025. The plans don't even have to be submitted until the end of 2016. The long lead time is due to a quirk in a hydrogen economy. In hydrogen infrastructure, "the first-mover cost is not the first-mover advantage, but the firstmover disadvantage." – Pat Cox In deploying a hydrogen infrastructure, Cox said, "the first-mover cost is not the first-mover advantage, but the first-mover disadvantage, and high risk." That's why the EU and member states will financially support the early stages, but everyone agrees that "if this is to work, it will have to be ultimately and essentially a commercially viable and commercially driven infrastructure roll-out." Since 1986, European Union research programs have spent 550 million euros on hydrogen-related and fuel-cell-related research, including methods of hydrogen storage and distribution as well as improved fuel cells vehicles, Cox said. Expensive problems remain to be solved. At a conference in Berlin, Germany this past summer, Cox said, the unit cost of the refueling stations was identified as the main problem.

Final decision on Toyota/BMW sports car due by year end

BMW and Toyota signed a memorandum of understanding to share technology and build a sports car way back in 2012, and months later, they made that partnership official. This oft-rumored model from two auto industry titans still hasn't hit the road, and the time has come to make a final decision about its future. Thankfully, the model's fate is just a few months from being known. "By the end of the year we will approve whether or not we will make it," a Toyota spokesperson said about the sports car project, according to Automotive News Europe. "The whole study before that, on what kind of platform, on what kind of architecture, that's been progressing quite well. We haven't yet decided to give the green light to the project, but it's coming up." The collaboration is supposed to result in jointly developed fuel-cell tech, composites, and research into lithium-air batteries. Little is officially known about what Toyota and BMW are planning for the sports car project, but there are plenty of rumors about what's in store. Both automakers are supposed to get their own version of the vehicle. Some reports say the Japanese model will be the revival of the Supra, and the Bimmer-badged one might end up being a replacement for the Z4. The potential powertrains have been suggested as a German-sourced, turbocharged inline six with rear-wheel drive and a super-capacitor-powered plug-in hybrid with all-wheel drive.

Lexus planning a hydrogen fuel-cell LS by 2017

Toyota's Fuel Cell System will certainly migrate to other vehicles in the carmaker's lineup, but Australian car site Motoring reports that one of the models at the head of the queue is the Lexus LS. According to its sources, the executive barge powered by hydrogen will be released by 2017 and take the top spot in the range, rolling in above the LS Hybrid. We're told that Toyota engineers will find a way to slide two hydrogen tanks into its bodywork with the same general setup as on the Mirai – one under the rear seats and another under the rear parcel shelf. The 150-kW fuel cell stack will be placed under the front seats. Motoring says the resulting sedan and its 220-kW electric motor would come in "at around 2,100 kg," which is 4,620 pounds; that's a ginormous 539 pounds less than the listed curb weight of the current LS Hybrid, and 387 pounds more than the standard LS. Assuming all goes as planned, it would have a range of roughly 238 miles, a few dozens less than the Mirai's range of about 300 miles. It would look slightly different, too, the front end getting larger intakes to cool the power unit. It wouldn't surprise us if Lexus does have a hydrogen LS planned – it would be a statement car, and the company likes making statements, even if few heed them; it has stuck with its LS 600h for the past seven years, yet of the 7,539 LS models sold through the end of November this year, only 61 of them were hybrids. The timing would be intriguing, however; by the time the LS hybrid came out, Lexus had already worked over its filet-and-potatoes models. And if the hydrogen version is going to come in above the $120,440 hybrid, well, that will be a statement indeed.