2010 Toyota Camry Le on 2040-cars

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Automakers not currently promoting EVs are probably doomed

Okay, let's be honest. The sky isn't falling – gas prices are. In fact, some experts say that prices at the pump will remain depressed for the next decade. Consumers have flocked to SUVs and CUVs, reversing the upward trend in US fuel economy seen over the last several years. A sudden push into electric vehicles seems ridiculous when gas guzzlers are selling so well. Make hay while the sun shines, right? A quick glance at some facts and figures provides evidence that the automakers currently doubling down on internal combustion probably have some rocky years ahead of them. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles is a prime example of a volume manufacturer devoted to incremental gains for existing powertrains. Though FCA will kill off some of its more fuel-efficient models, part of its business plan involves replacing four- and five-speed transmissions with eight- and nine-speed units, yielding a fuel efficiency boost in the vicinity of ten percent over the next few years. Recent developments by battery startups have led some to suggest that efficiency and capacity could increase by over 100 percent in the same time. Research and development budgets paint a grim picture for old guard companies like Fiat Chrysler: In 2014, FCA spent about $1,026 per car sold on R&D, compared with about $24,783 per car sold for Tesla. To be fair, FCA can't be expected to match Tesla's efforts when its entry-level cars list for little more than half that much. But even more so than R&D, the area in which newcomers like Tesla have the industry licked is infrastructure. We often forget that our vehicles are mostly useless metal boxes without access to the network of fueling stations that keep them rolling. While EVs can always be plugged in at home, their proliferation depends on a similar network of charging stations that can allow for prolonged travel. Tesla already has 597 of its 480-volt Superchargers installed worldwide, and that figure will continue to rise. Porsche has also proposed a new 800-volt "Turbo Charging Station" to support the production version of its Mission E concept, and perhaps other VW Auto Group vehicles. As EVs grow in popularity, investment in these proprietary networks will pay off — who would buy a Chevy if the gas stations served only Ford owners? If anyone missed the importance of infrastructure, it's Toyota.

Is 120 miles just about perfect for EV range?

When it comes to battery-electric vehicles, our friend Brad Berman over at Plug In Cars says 40 miles makes all the difference in the world. That's the approximate difference in single-charge range between the battery-electric version of the Toyota RAV4 and the Nissan Leaf. It's also the difference between the appearance or disappearance of range anxiety. The 50-percent battery increase has zapped any lingering range anxiety, Berman writes. The RAV4 EV possesses a 40-kilowatt-hour pack, compared to the 24-kWh pack in the Leaf. After factoring in differences in size, weight and other issues, that means the compact SUV gets about 120 miles on a single charge in realistic driving conditions, compared to about 80 miles in the Leaf. "The 50 percent increase in battery size from Leaf to RAV has zapped any lingering range anxiety," Berman writes. His observations further feed the notion that drivers need substantial backup juice in order to feel comfortable driving EVs. Late last year, the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), along with the Consumers Union estimated that about 42 percent of US households could drive plug-in vehicles with "little or no change" in their driving habits, and that almost 70 percent of US commuters drive fewer than 60 miles per weekday. That would imply that a substantial swath of the country should be comfortable using a car like the Leaf as their daily driver - with first-quarter Leaf sales jumping 46 percent from a year before, more Americans certainly are. Still, the implication here is that EV sales will continue to be on the margins until an automaker steps up battery capabilities to 120 or so miles while keeping the price in the $30,000 range. Think that's a reasonable goal to shoot for?

255-hp Toyota GR86 and other big news leaks in dealer presentation

Last month, Motor1 said it received information on Toyota and Lexus product plans for the next few years from an inside source who attended a dealer presentation. To protect the source, Motor1 didn't publish any slides or proof from that presentation. A snippet of what happened behind closed doors has found its way online, Allcarnews posting one of the slides yesterday, as well as its own recap of the Japanese automaker's plans that mirrors the Motor1 report. If all of this is true, not only is there a ton of product in the works, but Toyota and Lexus lineups will get more interesting while answering the requests of several enthusiast groups. We'll start with the 86, then go by model year after that. The next-gen coupe developed with Subaru should sit on Toyota's TNGA platform and get a rebrand to wear the GR86 name, for Toyota's Gazoo Racing division. The real hallelulah happens under the hood, where a turbocharged four-cylinder is expected to produce 255 hp, a 50-hp jump over the present model. Look for an upgraded interior, too. The debut is slated for summer 2021, possibly July.    This year: The fall season should introduce a new crossover and a new Sienna with hybrid powertrains only. The current minivan has been on sale since 2010, getting a minor refresh in front in 2018. The crossover will be a five-seat midsizer that brings back the Venza name, this model already rumored here and abroad. It, too, will only get hybrid powertrains. Both planned as 2021-model-year products, it's possible their motivations will be based on the 2.5-liter four-cylinder in both the RAV4 and Highlander hybrids. And a refreshed Camry might come later this year as a 2021MY sedan.  2021: Next year will be a busy one. ... On the Toyota side, and as TFL has reported, the all-new Tundra that's first to sit on the TNGA-F truck platform will show in December 2021 as a 2022MY pickup. Rumor has the top model powered by a 3.5-liter twin-turbo V6 hybrid with around 455 hp and 500 pound-feet of torque, perhaps distinguished by the i-Force Max name that Toyota recently applied to trademark. A few months before that, Toyota will roll out a Corolla-based crossover maybe called the Corolla Cross, and potentially built in the U.S. at the Alabama facility being constructed with Mazda. And remember, a Toyota exec teased a small hot hatch for this market as well, "an answer" to the GR Yaris sold in Europe, which Car and Driver figures will be based on the Corolla.