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Battery price skeptic says Tesla's $35,000 EV won't happen [UPDATE]

UPDATE: The story's been updated to include a response from Tesla. It's a good thing Dr. Menahem Anderman doesn't run the Nevada state government. The longtime battery-technology researcher, who heads the Advanced Automotive Batteries conference, isn't buying Tesla Motors' claim that it'll get lithium-ion battery costs down to less than $100 per kilowatt hour within the next 10 years. That would be bad news, since that price will be key to the automaker's ability to make a $35,000 electric vehicle. The good doctor is instead pegging battery costs at about $167/kWh in 2025, and says they will "unlikely" drop below $200/kWh before the end of the decade. He makes a rather detailed case in his report, which can be found here (PDF). We all know how confident CEO Elon Musk has been on his company's price predictions to drop the price of a pack by "more than 30 percent." As for Anderman's estimates, Tesla is taking the high road, as company spokeswoman Alexis Georgeson, in an e-mail to AutoblogGreen, declined to comment directly on the report, choosing instead to defer to Musk's previous comments. Tesla has said its planned Gigafactory will provide the scale needed to bring battery costs down enough to make the $35,000 EV. By Anderman's estimates, the battery costs will be more commensurate to a $50,000 EV, which isn't horrible, but it's not the type of mass-market price that the industry (and Tesla stockholders, for that matter) are expecting. Earlier this month, Nevada offered an incentive package worth about $1.3 billion to Tesla, which is planning its plant near Reno. Battery-maker Panasonic is an investor in the factory as well.

Watch Tesla Model X P100D drag race Lamborghini Aventador SV

It's always fun to see the performance capabilities of electric vehicles, and we haven't yet tired of watching Teslas go up against supercars, street racers, even airplane s, win or lose. DragTimes fed the world another Tesla drag race video this week, pitting a Tesla Model X P100D with Ludicrous+ against a Lamborghini Aventador SV powered by a 6.5-liter V12 (and worth $530,000) in a quarter-mile challenge at Palm Beach International Raceway. The Model X gets a better start off the line, and ends up finishing just 0.05 seconds ahead of the Lamborghini (which was quickly catching up at the end). While the Lamborghini was technically faster (with an elapsed time of 11.281 seconds and a speed of 129.38 miles per hour), the Model X finished the quarter mile in 11.418 seconds at 117.95 miles per hour, which DragTimes notes is a world record for an SUV. The difference in the sound between the two vehicles is striking, as we find from the separate camera views. The Lamborghini absolutely screams, while the Tesla just whistles in the wind a bit. After the Model X, the Lamborghini takes on a Model S P100D. It almost looks like the Aventador jumps the gun a bit (but it doesn't get a red light, and shows a reaction time of just .008 seconds with some well-timed wheel spin), and ends up finishing 0.15 seconds ahead of the Model S. The Tesla's elapsed time was 10.947 seconds at 119.71 mph, while the Lamborghini's ET was 11.164 seconds at 129.08 mph. These races showcase the mighty acceleration of the P100D Teslas. While the traditionally powered supercar is faster at the high end, the low-end shove of the EVs prove them to be great drag cars, even weighing over 5,000 pounds. Related Video: This content is hosted by a third party. To view it, please update your privacy preferences. Manage Settings. News Source: YouTube: DragTimes via Teslarati Green Motorsports Lamborghini Tesla Green Automakers SUV Electric Supercars Videos world record drag race lamborghini aventador sv p100d

Tesla considers adding overseas production

Tesla is currently using the old General Motors/Toyota NUMMI facility in California for Model S production, and despite the brand's rapid growth, it's still not coming close to approaching the full 500,000-unit production capacity of that former facility. Still, the EV manufacturer is shopping around for both European and Asian production facilities in anticipation of bountiful increases in sales.
While we'd caution that this counting of chickens isn't the best idea, Tesla has just cause for planning ahead. According to Automotive News, Model S production should crest at 21,000 units by the end of 2013, and 40,000 units by the end of 2014. It'll soon be joined at the Fremont, California factory by the Model X SUV, along with the rumored Model E, which will occupy a volume position for the brand below the Model S. And while the old NUMMI facility might have production capacity for far more vehicles than Tesla can build, churning three separate vehicles out of the same factory might not be as economically viable as just picking up a new factory altogether.
While Musk won't come out and say it, if his logistical predictions are any indication, it's a safe bet that he sees Model E becoming the big-selling model for Tesla. Speaking to Bloomberg, he said, "We'll try to locate those close to where people are, close to where the customers are, to minimize the logistics costs of getting the car to them."