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Tesla says Germany concludes Model S fire probe without further action

It was the perfect storm: three Model S fires in six weeks were enough for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to start an investigation into the two US fires in mid-November, but as it turns out, the German government was paying attention too. According to Tesla, Germany's Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA), or Federal Motor Transport Authority, already has completed an investigation into the two US fires and the one in Mexico, found no manufacturer-related defects and will not take further measures.
According to a statement issued by Tesla, the automaker says it was contacted by the KBA about the post-crash fires, and it "provided the KBA with data and additional information regarding each of these incidents." The KBA subsequently sent a letter in German to Tesla saying the investigation was complete and that no manufacturer-related defects could be found. (Take a look at the letter here.)

Ferrari, not Tesla, might be the stock to buy

Last week Tesla's earnings – or lack thereof – were one of the big stories in the auto industry. As usual, the electric carmaker didn't make money, but the news sent the market, analysts, and Tesla's devoted fans into a lather. But another company, this plucky upstart called Ferrari, also attracted a positive reaction from the market and actually had the financials to back it up. Ferrari posted net revenues of $898 million (at today's exchange rates) EBITDA of $265 million (a slightly complicated way to snapshot financial performance) and an adjusted net profit of $136 million in the first quarter. The company delivered 2,003 cars, and sales of its V12 models increased 50 percent. It quietly made progress nearly a year and a half into its life as an independent automaker. For 2017, Ferrari expects to deliver 8,400 cars and rake in net revenue of $3.6 billion. No one thought Ferrari would flounder when Fiat Chrysler Automobiles spun it off in fall 2015. With a rich history, expensive products, and its own loyal fan base that's arguably even larger than Tesla's, the company seemed poised for success, though skeptics wondered how it might fare after longtime chief Luca di Montezemolo stepped down before the spinoff. Plus, the company remains within the FCA sphere, as its key stakeholders are largely connected to its former parent in some way, and Chairman Sergio Marchionne also steers FCA. Last week's results showed Ferrari is gaining footing in the evolving automotive world, and analysts responded. UBS analyst Michael Binetti reiterated Ferrari stock (RACE on the NYSE) as buy status and raised his target price from $85 to $92. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas was even more bullish, raising projections to $100 in the next 12 months. Shares were trading around $82 Monday morning. Both analysts viewed Ferrari as something different than a conventional automaker stock, with Binetti comparing it to luxury house Hermes, which produces high margins even for a specialty goods maker. Jonas suggested Ferrari's singular reputation and history (16 Formula One Constructors titles, the most ever) could insulate its products when autonomous and electric cars become even more commonplace. "In our view, a Ferrari is not transportation," he wrote in a note to clients. "Ownership is viewed as an exclusive club, and membership requires more than just money.

Morgan Stanley predicts radical auto industry consolidation

A lack of technological foresight and changing economic conditions may bring dramatic consolidation to the auto industry in the next 15 to 20 years. Industry analyst Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley believes that the number of major automakers could go from around 30 today to as few as 6 in that time. However, a catastrophe is avoidable.
Jonas' argument is that the world has more automakers than it can sustain. He contends that too many of them are more focused on next year's models than attempting to adapt to technological change. Without looking forward, they won't survive.
Tesla might be the lighthouse leading automakers away from the rocks. While still quite small, it has disrupted the status quo and shown that there's more than one way to prepare for new innovations. "With proper execution, Detroit may thank Tesla Motors for being that stiff board in the back of the head right when they needed it," said Jonas to The Detroit News.