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FCA-Renault merger faces tall odds delivering on cost-cutting promises

FRANKFURT/DETROIT — Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and Renault promise huge savings from a mega-merger, but such combinations face tall odds because of the industry's long product cycles and problems translating deal blueprints into real world success, industry veterans told Reuters. BMW's 1994 purchase of Rover, and Daimler's 1998 merger with Chrysler both made sense on paper. The companies promised to hike profits by combining vehicle platforms and engine families. Both combinations proved unworkable in reality, and were unwound. Renault and Nissan, which have been in an alliance since 1999 designed to share vehicle components, have only managed to use common vehicle platforms in 35% of Nissan's products despite an original target of 70%, according to Morgan Stanley. FCA and Renault have raised the stakes for themselves by ruling out plant closures. That increases the pressure to achieve more than $5 billion in promised annual savings from pooling procurement and research investments. The two companies have yet to fill in many of the blanks in the merger plan put forward by Fiat Chrysler. Renault's board is expected to act soon to accept the proposal, but that would lead only to a memorandum of understanding to pursue detailed operational and financial plans. A final deal and the legal combination of the two companies could take months to complete if all goes well. Pressure to cut automotive pollution is driving the latest round of consolidation. Automakers are looking at multibillion-dollar bills to develop electric and hybrid cars and cleaner internal combustion engines. Fiat Chrysler and Renault are betting they can design common electric vehicle systems, then sell more of them through their respective brands and dealer networks, cutting the cost per car. Developing all-new electric vehicles can bring more opportunities to share costs from the outset, industry experts said. "With the emergence of connected, autonomous, electric and shared vehicles, carmakers face immediate investments, so new opportunities for sharing costs have emerged," said Elmar Kades, managing director at Alix Partners. However, most electric vehicles lose money. This is a challenge for city car brands in Europe in particular. Both Renault and Fiat rely heavily on this segment for sales.

Nissan could report first quarterly loss since March 2009

TOKYO — Nissan may report its first quarterly loss in more than a decade on Thursday because of slumping sales, sources familiar with the company said, adding more pressure on efforts to rebuild the company after Carlos Ghosn's ouster. Deteriorating profits underscore the challenges facing Nissan, which is unwinding many of the expansionist strategies championed by ex-Chief Executive Officer and Chairman Ghosn by slashing jobs, production sites and product offerings to save cash and ensure its survival. In addition to slumping sales, production disruptions caused by China's coronavirus outbreak could also drag profits lower. Three senior officials at Japan's No. 2 automaker told Reuters that they anticipate a poor results announcement on Thursday, with one of them calling the figures "dismal". Two of the officials cautioned that there is the possibility of an operating loss, which would be the first quarterly loss since the period ending in March 2009. Nissan said it could not comment on its financial results ahead of its official announcement. The company is likely to report operating profit of 48.6 billion yen ($442.5 million) for the quarter ending in December, less than half the 103 billion yen profit a year ago, according to SmartEstimate's survey of three analysts, who revised their forecasts in January. However, those forecasts were issued before the release of the December vehicle sales figures on Jan. 30, which show third-quarter sales dropped by 11% from the year earlier period, according to Reuters calculations. That is the biggest quarterly slump of its current sales downturn that began two years ago. That sales decline led one auto equities analyst based in Japan to scrap his forecast and also warn that Nissan could post a loss. "It will be a question of whether there will be a profit or a loss. For the quarter, a loss is a possibility," he said, declining to be named as his forecast had not been updated to reflect his latest view. One of the three Nissan officials said there is a risk the automaker may cut its full-year profit forecast of 150 billion yen, which would be an 11-year low. The company announced that forecast in November after an initial 230 billion yen outlook.

Japan calls Ghosn's escape inexcusable and vows tighter immigration checks

TOKYO — Japan's justice minister on Sunday called the flight of former Nissan Chairman Carlos Ghosn as he awaited trial on financial misconduct charges inexcusable and vowed to beef up immigration checks. Justice Minister Masako Mori said she had ordered an investigation after Ghosn issued a statement a few days ago saying he was in Lebanon. She said there were no records of Ghosn's departure from Tokyo. She said his bail has been revoked, and Interpol had issued a wanted notice. Departure checks needed to be strengthened to prevent a recurrence, Mori said. While expressing deep regret over what had happened, Mori stopped short of outlining any specific action Japan might take to get Ghosn back. Japan does not have an extradition treaty with Lebanon. “Our nationÂ’s criminal justice system protects the basic human rights of an individual and properly carries out appropriate procedures to disclose the truth of various cases, and the flight of a suspect while out on bail is never justified,” she said in a statement. MoriÂ’s statement was the first public comment by a Japanese government official after the stunning escape of Ghosn, once a superstar of the auto industry. Tokyo prosecutors issued a similar statement Sunday. They had opposed Ghosn's release on bail, arguing he was a flight risk. First arrested in November 2018, Ghosn was out on bail over the last several months, and more recently had moved into a home in an upscale part of Tokyo. He has repeatedly said he was innocent. His statement from Beirut said he was escaping injustice. Japan's justice system has come under fire from human rights advocates for its long detentions, the reliance on confessions and prolonged trials. The conviction rate is higher than 99%. Even if Ghosn had been found innocent, the prosecutors could have appealed, and the appeals process could have lasted years. Ghosn's trial was not expected to start until April at the earliest. During that time, he had been prohibited from seeing his wife, and was only allowed a couple of video calls in the presence of a lawyer. Ghosn had been charged with underreporting his future compensation and breach of trust in diverting Nissan money for his personal gain. Although the details of his escape are not yet clear, Turkish airline company MNG Jet has said two of its planes were used illegally, first flying him from Osaka, Japan, to Istanbul, and then on to Beirut, where he arrived Monday and has not been seen since.