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With Nissan dragging it down, Renault predicts a worsening year

PARIS — Renault warned revenue may decline this year, scrapping a previous goal, after first-half profit was hit by weakening car demand and an earnings collapse at alliance partner Nissan in the wake of the Carlos Ghosn scandal. Net income slumped by more than half to 970 million euros ($1.08 billion) in January-June as revenue fell 6.4% to 28.05 billion, the French carmaker said on Friday. Operating profit also dropped 13.6% to 1.65 billion euros. "Given the degradation in demand, the group now expects 2019 revenues to be close to last year's," Renault said — abandoning an earlier pledge to increase revenue before currency effects. A broad-based auto sales downturn has rattled the sector, prompting profit warnings and compounding challenges for Renault and Nissan as they struggle to turn the page on the Ghosn era. Their former alliance boss is now awaiting trial in Japan on financial misconduct charges he denies. Renault's bottom line was hit by an 826 million-euro drop in earnings from its 43.4%-owned partner. Nissan is cutting 12,500 jobs globally after an earnings collapse that it is keen to blame on Ghosn's leadership. But Renault's own performance - reflected in an operating margin that declined to 5.9% from 6.4% the year before - compares less favorably with domestic rival PSA Group. The Peugeot maker bucked the downturn with a record 8.7% profit margin unveiled on Wednesday. Alliance tensions flared after Ghosn's November arrest, worsened when Renault tried in vain to merge with Nissan then Fiat Chrysler, and may be affecting operational performance, investors fear. Citi analyst Raghav Gupta-Chaudhary flagged a lower-than-usual 258 million euros in joint purchasing savings for Renault. "We thought this would be weak in light of the well-documented difficulties with the alliance," he said. Renault blamed falling sales in France, as well as Turkey and Argentina, for a 7.7% revenue drop at its core automotive business, whose profit margin slid to 4% from 4.5%. Operating free cash flow also suffered, coming in at a negative 716 million euros as investment jumped by 742 million euros to 2.91 billion. Renault, which is counting on model launches including a new Clio mini to boost performance in the second half of 2019, nonetheless reiterated pledges to deliver positive full-year cash flow and a margin close to 6%. Renault shares were down 0.5% at 52.02 euros as of 0800 GMT in Paris, after initially falling as much as 2.7%.

Nissan and BMW want the UK to stay in the EU

Nissan and BMW are saying that the Brexit shouldn't become reality. It's a mixture of hope and threat because their planned investments in the UK risk to be damaged by the referendum's result. While those brands are still saying that every decision from the UK's people will be respected, you can sense a fear that every plan is going to be messed up. The problem is simple according to Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn: "For us, a position of stability is more positive than a collection of unknowns. It makes the most sense for jobs, trade and costs." For sure Nissan is not going to shut its plant in northeast England if the country exits the Union, but this could change plans for the future, as the so-called Brexit could cause an increase on costs and above all on competition. Nissan employs 8,000 people in the UK across its manufacturing, engineering, and design facilities, and a further 32,000 indirectly through dealerships and its supply chain. All these people produce almost half a million cars and 80 percent of those are exported, so just imagine how taxes could affect prices and sales. If the EU's borders get smaller, Nissan will face some problems with customs duties the foreign products struggle with, as other Japanese automakers have so far, while importing their cars into the Union. Nissan is not the only maker interested in the outcome of the referendum to be held June 23; BMW is of the same mood, hoping Brexit won't become reality. The Germans already warn Mini and Rolls-Royce employees that the exit of UK from the Union could cause problems with increasing costs and higher prices due to tariff barriers. BMW CEO Harald Krueger at the Geneva auto show said "a UK vote to exit the European Union would cloud the future of the automaker's UK brands, which include Mini, along with Rolls-Royce". What's happening in this case is not only an English issue. In fact, although every decision taken by the UK's people must be respected, the automakers are right when saying they hope it is not going to happen, as you hope no one changes the cards during the game. Image Credit: Nissan Government/Legal BMW Nissan brexit open road

China's largest dealer body pushes back against foreign automakers over huge inventories

Do not think for a second that automakers forcing inventory on dealers in order to pad the numbers is a ruse known only in the US. Stories of individual brands have hinted at the trouble Chinese dealerships are having trying to move units as the country's economic growth remains hot but comes off the boil, like the one revealing that 95 percent of Toyota-FAW showrooms are losing money. Yet Toyota isn't the only culprit, and the issue has become so dire that the China Automobile Dealers Association (CADA), the largest dealer body in the country, has written to the government to complain. Chinese car sales are expected to close out the year with an annualized growth of six-percent, down from last year's 14 percent when targets were set, while in the background the pace of overall economic expansion is the slowest its been since the early nineties. Automakers, shipping cars on schedule to make their earlier targets, have blown up inventories such that they are an average of 1.8 times monthly sales, when the preferred multiplier is from 0.9 to 1.2. According to the CADA, the price wars and necessary incentives mean that only 30 percent of dealers are operating in the black. That number is down a whopping forty percent since 2010. In response, Toyota has already said it will not make its 2014 target of 1.1 million cars sold. We're a long way from 2012, when Toyota planned on selling 1.8 million cars in China in 2015, a target that's now as realistic as a manticore. BMW, Honda and Nissan have erased numbers on their spreadsheets, too; BMW growth dropped from 20 percent to 8 percent midyear after it began "reducing wholesale supplies," and Honda has been reworking its plans as sales have decreased each of the past six months. It's a big deal for Chinese dealers to begin protesting publicly, the CADA saying, "In the past, dealers were angry, but dared not speak out. But now, they have to shout because the situation is getting so unbearable." With six-percent growth forecast for next year and dealers unwilling to remain underwater, The Year of the Sheep coming in 2015 could portend meaning beyond the zodiac. News Source: ReutersImage Credit: AP Photo/Andy Wong BMW Honda Nissan Toyota Car Buying Car Dealers