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GM, Ford, Honda winners in 'Car Wars' study as industry growth continues

General Motors' plans to aggressively refresh its product lineup will pay off in the next four years with strong market share and sales, according to an influential report released Tuesday. Ford, Honda, and FCA are all poised to show similar gains as the auto industry is expected to remain healthy through the rest of the decade. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch study, called Car Wars, analyzes automakers' future product plans for the next four model years. By 2020, 88 percent of GM's sales will come from newly launched products, which puts it slightly ahead of Ford's 86-percent estimate. Honda (85 percent) and FCA (84 percent) follow. The industry average is 81 percent. Toyota checks in just below the industry average at 79 percent, with Nissan trailing at 76 percent. Car Wars' premise is: automakers that continually launch new products are in a better position to grow sales and market share, while companies that roll out lightly updated models are vulnerable to shifting consumer tastes. Though Detroit and Honda grade out well in the study, many major automakers are clumped together, which means large market-share swings are less likely in the coming years. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts the industry will top out with 20 million sales in 2018 and then taper off, perhaps as much as 30 percent by 2026. Not surprisingly, trucks, sport utility vehicles and crossovers will be the key battlefield in the next few years, Car Wars says. FCA will launch a critical salvo in 2018 with a new Ram 1500, followed by new generations of the Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra in 2019, and then Ford's F-150 for 2020, according to the study. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy said the GM trucks could be pulled ahead even earlier to 2018, prompting Ford to respond. "This focus on crossovers and trucks is a great thing for the industry," Murphy said. Cars Wars looks at Korean (76 percent replacement rate) and European companies more vaguely (70 percent), but argues their slower product cadence and lineups with fewer trucks puts them in weaker positions than their competitors through 2020. Related Video: This content is hosted by a third party. To view it, please update your privacy preferences. Manage Settings. Featured Gallery 2016 Chevrolet Silverado View 11 Photos Image Credit: Chevrolet Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Nissan Toyota study FCA

November U.S. new car sales mixed as automakers deepen discounts

DETROIT — Major automakers posted mixed U.S. November new vehicle sales on Friday and predicted a competitive December as they rushed to sell vehicles and boost their numbers before 2017 ends. Automakers are trying to sell down 2017 model-year vehicles, offering high discounts to consumers as the year-end nears. In 2016, the industry reported record annual sales of 17.55 million units. According to consultancies J.D. Power and LMC, discounts have been above 10 percent of the average transaction price for 16 of the past 17 months, a level experts say is unhealthy and unsustainable. The November sales results come as the National Automobile Dealers Association said on Friday it expects new vehicle sales to decline to 16.7 million units in 2018, after dropping to 17.1 million for the full year in 2017. If that forecast comes true, the race to move new vehicles off dealers' lots will only intensify next year. Brandon Mason, a director at PwC's automotive practice, said a worrying trend for the industry was a rising number of subprime loans. He said subprime levels are at just over 20 percent of originations, against more than 30 percent prior to the Great Recession, but recent increases remain a concern. "That's a bit of a red flag," Mason said. "It's something to keep an eye on as we move into 2018." November results by automaker: General Motors: Sales fell 2.9 percent, with sales to consumers flat against the same month in 2016. Much of the decrease was driven by lower fleet sales. GM said strong SUV and crossover sales pushed its average transaction price for the month above $37,000 for the first time. The level of unsold cars, which has been a concern for analysts and the industry, rose slightly to 83 days' supply, from 80 days at the end of October. "More vehicles are sold in December than any other month, and we are very well positioned because we have momentum in so many segments, but especially in crossovers," said Kurt McNeil, U.S. vice president of sales operations. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles: Fleet sales are low-margin, and FCA in particular has targeted a significant reduction in this type of sale in 2017. It posted a 4 percent overall decrease in sales for November, but fleet sales were down 25 percent while sales to consumers were up 2 percent on the year. Ford: The No. 2 U.S. automaker reported a 6.7 percent increase for the month, with fleet sales up nearly 26 percent and retail sales 1.3 percent higher than in November 2016.

Nissan to pull out of venture fund with Renault in cost-cutting drive, insiders say

TOKYO — Nissan is likely to pull out from a venture capital fund it runs with alliance partners Renault and Mitsubishi Motors, as part of the Japanese automaker's drive to cut costs and conserve cash, two sources said. Nissan will formally take a decision on whether to leave the fund, Alliance Ventures, by the end of this month, the two Nissan insiders told Reuters, declining to be identified because the information has not been made public. The likely move comes after Nissan's junior partner, Mitsubishi Motors Corp, told an alliance meeting last week that it would no longer continue to inject money into the fund, one of the sources said. The decision to leave the Amsterdam-based fund was all but a done deal, the other source said, adding: "Of course we're out. The house is on fire." A Nissan spokeswoman said it was speculation and declined to comment. A Mitsubishi spokesman said no decision had been made. The move comes as Nissan — which has seen its earnings slump — is now facing a downturn in China, its biggest market, due to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. China sales plunged 80% last month. It also highlights the extent of the automaker's cost-cutting under new CEO Makoto Uchida, who is under pressure for a quick turnaround. Alliance Ventures is aimed at finding "learning opportunities" for the alliance through investing in startups, and is supposed get up to $200 million (153.3 million pounds) a year from the three alliance partners, although it never achieves that full amount, the first source said. It was set up under former alliance head Carlos Ghosn, whose dramatic arrest in Japan culminated in an escape to his childhood home of Lebanon in December. Ghosn faces multiple charges in Japan, including of under-reporting earnings and misappropriation of company funds, all of which he denies. According to its website, the fund was set up with a $200 million initial investment and aims for up to $1 billion by 2023. Portfolio companies include WeRide, a Chinese robo-taxi startup and Tekion Corp, a cloud-based retail platform for cars. "It wasn't established by Ghosn as a way to make money. It was for those learning opportunities we get from investing in smart startups," the first source said. "But given the tough financial situation we are facing, we are looking at investment return." Reporting by Norihiko Shirouzu; Editing by David Dolan/Louise Heavens/Susan Fenton.