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Self-driving cars' problem (besides making them work): Too many players, not enough profit

For an detailed, interactive graphic about the many players in autonomous cars, click here. FRANKFURT/DETROIT — BMW and Daimler, the world's top luxury carmakers, have announced alliances with suppliers, talking up the virtues of having a bigger pool of engineers to develop a self-driving car. But another motive behind these deals, executives and industry experts told Reuters, is a concern that robocars may not live up to the profit expectations that drove an initial investment rush. Carmakers are increasingly looking to forego outright ownership of future autonomous driving systems in favor of spreading the investment burden and risk. The trend represents a clear shift in strategy from little more than a year ago when most automakers were pursuing standalone strategies focused on tackling the engineering challenge of developing a self-driving car, rather than on the business case. "Although it is a substantial market, it may not be worth the scale of investments currently being sunk into it," said a board member at one of the German carmakers, who declined to be identified because the matter is confidential. Dozens of companies — including carmakers and tech firms like Google and Uber — are vying for a market which, according to consulting firm Frost & Sullivan, will only make up about 10 to 15 percent of vehicles in Europe by 2030. There are sure to be losers. "It's impossible for me to believe there will be 50 successful autonomous vehicle software producers," said John Hoffecker, global vice chairman of Michigan-based consulting firm AlixPartners. In July last year, BMW became the first major carmaker to abandon its solo development of self-driving cars in favor of teaming up with chipmaker Intel and camera and software manufacturer Mobileye to build a platform for autonomous cars technology by 2021. The decision followed a trip by senior executives to visit startups and suppliers to gauge BMW's competitive position. "Sitting at other companies, one rattles off the technological challenges and safety aspects, and you come to realize that many of us are swimming in the same sludge," Klaus Buettner, BMW's vice president autonomous driving projects, told Reuters. "Everybody is investing billions.

Mercedes-Benz to boost stake in Aston Martin to 20%, lend it some tech

Daimler unit Mercedes-Benz is to lift its stake in Britain's Aston Martin to up to 20% by 2023, making it one of the struggling British carmaker's largest shareholders, Aston said on Tuesday. Aston Martin, popular for being James Bond's carmaker of choice, has suffered a torrid time since it went public two years ago, with its shares losing two-thirds of their value this year. The 107-year-old firm hired Tobias Moers, former CEO of Mercedes-AMG, as its new boss from August. Aston said the increase in Mercedes-Benz's stake, from 2.6% currently, would take place in several stages as part of a wider issue of 250 million shares at 50 pence each. The stock issued to the German group will have a maximum value of 286 million pounds ($372.7 million), it said. The deal will see an existing supply agreement between the two firms, in place since 2013, expanded to give Aston Martin access to key Mercedes' technology, including hybrid and electric drive systems. "We take another major step forward as our long-term partnership with Mercedes-Benz AG moves to another level, with them becoming one of the company's largest shareholders," said Aston's chairman and biggest shareholder Lawrence Stroll. The German firm will get the right to nominate one non-executive director to Aston Martin's board after its first shareholding increase, the London-listed firm said. Aston, which has started deliveries of its first sport utility vehicle, the DBX, said on Tuesday it swung into an adjusted core loss of 29 million pounds in the third quarter, versus a profit of 43 million pounds last year. Revenue in the period nearly halved to 124 million pounds, it said. Aston Martin is targeting annual capex of 250 million pounds to 300 million pounds per year between 2021 and 2025. It envisages production volumes of about 10,000 units, revenues of about 2 billion pounds and adjusted core profit of 500 million pounds by financial years 2024 or 2025.

How chasing Ferrari improved Aston Martin, with help from Mercedes-Benz

GAYDON, England — After decades of ups and downs, British carmaker Aston Martin Lagonda is charting a more efficient and profitable way forward, leaning on technology from shareholder Mercedes-Benz to make the costly leap to electric vehicles (EVs). Less than two years after billionaire Lawrence Stroll drove to the rescue of James Bond's car brand of choice, Aston Martin has undergone a manufacturing makeover to lift margins and help it become more like rival Ferrari. Stroll, Aston Martin's largest shareholder and executive chairman, who is also an avid fan of Ferrari, says after vehicle sales jumped 82% in 2021 the carmaker's transformation to long-term profitability is well under way, with new cars coming and funding secured through 2025. But analysts say Aston Martin, which has gone bust seven times since it was founded in 1913 and has flirted with death as often as Agent 007, is still burning through piles of cash. Some question its ability to generate Ferrari-like sales to fund the vast cost of electrification. "It's precarious and it is possible for this company to go bust," said Redburn equity research analyst Charles Coldicott. "I don't think it's a controversial thing to say even though Aston wouldn't like to hear it." Asked to comment on perceptions of a shaky future, an Aston Martin spokesman reiterated Stroll's view that the carmaker is well on the way to long-term profitability and that it has adequate access to cash. On a tour of the carmaker's Gaydon factory, Tobias Moers, formerly head of Mercedes' high-performance AMG brand and Aston Martin chief executive since August 2020, rattles off a list of moves including cutting one of two assembly lines and bringing more bespoke items like seats in-house. Perhaps the biggest shift has been to focus on higher-value customer-driven and customized orders — a big part of Ferrari's success — rather than over-producing and churning out sports cars wholesale, which then had to be discounted. "When I came in, the company was manufacturing-dominated instead of engineering-led, which for an auto luxury business is insane," Moers said. "In a company this size, you need maximum flexibility and agility." Moers has cut Aston Martin's inventory to 600 sports cars from 2,000 — its cars sell for an average of around 150,000 pounds ($195,750) — and customized orders now account for 50% of sales versus 6% when he joined the firm. At that point, the carmaker was in trouble after a disastrous 2018 public listing.