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Japanese automakers welcome North American trade deal, fear what's next

TOKYO — Toyota, Nissan and Mazda welcomed on Tuesday the revised North America trade deal that left Japanese automakers unscathed, but they may face a bumpy ride when Washington and Tokyo hold new talks on over $40 billion of annual U.S. auto imports from Japan. The United States and Canada reached an agreement on Sunday to update the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement after Washington had forged a separate trade deal with Mexico in August. The updated deal effectively maintains the auto industry's current footprint in North America, and spares Canada and Mexico from the prospect of U.S. national security tariffs on their vehicles. Mazda, which ships cars to the United States from Mexico and Japan, called the deal a "big step forward". Nissan, which makes the cars it sells in the United States locally as well as in Mexico, Japan and other countries, said it was "encouraged" by the agreement. Toyota, Japan's biggest automaker, said it was "pleased" that a basic deal was reached. Other automakers were not immediately available for comment. While the deal has removed the risk that the disintegration of the pact would have posed to automakers, bigger risks loom large for Japanese firms as a chunk of the roughly 7 million cars they sold in the U.S. last year were shipped from Japan, and a trade deal between Washington and Tokyo has yet to be agreed. The United States and Japan last week agreed to begin fresh trade talks, with U.S. President Donald Trump seeking to address Japan's $69 billion trade surplus, of which nearly two-thirds comes from auto exports. Washington is also investigating the possibility of slapping 25 percent tariffs on auto imports on national security grounds, although it has agreed with Japan to put any new tariffs on hold during the talks. Analysts say the United States may take a tougher stance on auto imports from Japan than from its neighbors. "If Japan requests an exemption from the 25 percent tariffs under consideration, Washington could propose a more strict cap on imports than it agreed to with Mexico and Canada," said Koji Endo, senior analyst at SBI Securities. "That would be a risk." This could be a big blow to Japan, as the United States is a key source of revenue for Japanese automakers including Toyota, Nissan and Honda. The U.S. market accounts for a quarter or more of their annual global vehicle sales, and of their total U.S.

Honda sees sales up but profit sliding 16 percent in 2017-18

TOKYO - Honda forecasts a 16 percent fall in operating profit for the current financial year as the Japanese automaker sees higher auto sales being offset by a stronger yen and research-and-development costs. Japan's No. 3 automaker said it expects an operating profit of 705 billion yen ($6.34 billion) in the current FY2018, down from 840.7 billion yen posted in the fiscal year just ended, and lower than an average estimate of 850.8 billion yen from 23 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. It sees a 14 percent slide in net profit to 530.0 billion yen this year, down from 616.5. Honda's projections are based on a forecast that the yen will average 105 yen to the U.S. dollar through next March, stronger than the 108 yen rate in the year just ended.BUT CAR SALES ARE UP At the same time, there's good news as Honda expects its global vehicle sales to edge up 1 percent to 5.08 million this year, bolstered by growth in Asian sales to 2.06 million units, beating out North America to become Honda's top market as more Chinese drivers flock to its cars. The company expects to sell 1.92 million vehicles in North America, 2.5 percent less than the year just ended as it struggles to sell sedans including the Accord, which have fallen out of fashion in the past few years. Honda has been ramping up production of SUVs to keep up with strong demand for larger models in the United States, although overall vehicle sales show signs of slowing following a boom cycle after the global financial crisis. Mazda is taking a similar strategy, announcing on Friday it would expand production of SUV crossover models at home, while equipping overseas plants to enable more flexible production of models according to market needs. Japan's No. 5 automaker forecast a 19 percent jump in operating profit for the current financial year as it expects higher sales volumes, particularly in North America, to help it recover from last year's profit slump.A CONSERVATIVE OUTLOOK Executive Vice President Seiji Kuraishi acknowledged that Honda's expected currency hit of 95 billion yen was based on a "conservative" yen forecast, adding that growing costs to create next-generation cars would also impact earnings. "Our costs are rising to develop new technologies which will be needed in the future, like automated driving functions and electric cars," he told reporters at a results briefing.

Mazda patent shows rotary placement in complex AWD hybrid layout

If we were playing alt-powertrain Bingo, a recent Mazda patent application filed in Japan would be one or two letters from victory. What's exciting about the patent, discovered by Japanese outlet T's Media via Motor Trend, is that while it makes a case for an internal combustion engine of any configuration, one of the drawings showing a rotary engine. The wild bit is that the whole powertrain comprises the ICE, a transaxle, two tiny in-wheel electric motors turning the front wheels, a third electric motor in the driveline, a capacitor, a lithium-ion battery, and three inverters. Motor Trend parsed the mechanics, and the way it reads, Doc Brown couldn't have done a better job. The rotary engine at the front turns the rear wheels, but not directly. Instead of a flywheel on back of the engine, the drawing shows a 25-kW electric motor and an inverter, then a driveshaft running to the transaxle. Along the axis of the transmission tunnel in a normal car, between the inverter and the transaxle, lies a 3.5-kWh battery running at 48 volts. MT writes that the electric motor can add its output to the ICE output to drive the rear wheels, or the e-motor can turn the rear axle on its own. Up front, two inverters and a double-layer capacitor join the ICE in the engine bay. The capacitor and tiny hub motors in the front wheels run at 120 volts, a higher voltage than the rest of the electrical system, so that the small in-wheel motors can generate the same torque as a larger motor running at a lower voltage. The AWD system acts on-demand. Given the signal, the capacitors discharge their energy to the wheel motors, and recover energy from braking. When the capacitors are at full charge, they send excess regen energy to the lithium-ion battery; conversely, the battery can recharge the capacitors when they're low and the front hub motors need power. The patent explains that the ICE works with the rear e-motor to drive the rear wheels at low speeds, the front motors called on to "generate an output only when a large output is required in the high vehicle speed range." The rather complicated system is focused on providing the benefits of a hybrid system and all-wheel drive, but at lower weight than one would expect. A rotary serves due to its compactness, but one of the drawings shows an engine with a V layout. Hub motors get dinged for adding unsprung weight, hence the small motors here.