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Japan could consolidate to three automakers by 2020

Sergio Marchionne might see his dream of big mergers in the auto industry become a reality, and an analyst thinks Japan is a likely place for consolidation to happen. Takaki Nakanishi from Jefferies Group LLC tells Bloomberg the country's car market could combine to just three or fewer major players by 2020, from seven today. "To have one or two carmakers in a country is not only natural, but also helpful to their competitiveness," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "Japan has just too many and the resources have been too spread out. It's a natural trend to consolidate and reduce some of the wasted resources." Nakanishi's argument echoes Marchionne's reasons to push for a merger between FCA and General Motors. Automakers spend billions on research and development, but their competitors also invest money to create the same solutions. Consolidating could conceivably put that R&D money into new avenues. "In today's global marketplace, it is increasingly difficult for automakers to compete in lower volume segments like sports cars, hydrogen fuel cells, or electrified vehicles on their own," Ed Kim, vice president of Industry Analysis at AutoPacific, told Autoblog. Even without mergers, these are the areas where Japanese automakers already have partners for development. Kim cited examples like Toyota and Subaru's work on the BRZ and FR-S and its collaboration with BMW on a forthcoming sports car. Honda and GM have also reportedly deepened their cooperation on green car tech. After Toyota's recent buyout of previous partner Daihatsu, Nakanishi agrees with rumors that the automotive giant could next pursue Suzuki. He sees them like a courting couple. "For Suzuki, it's like they're just starting to exchange diaries and have yet to hold hands. When Toyota's starts to hold 5 percent of Suzuki's shares, this will be like finally touching fingertips," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "I absolutely do believe that we are not finished seeing consolidation in Japan," Kim told Autoblog. Rising development costs to meet tougher emissions regulations make it hard for minor players in the market to remain competitive. "The smaller automakers like Suzuki, Mazda, and Mitsubishi are challenged to make it on their own in the global marketplace. Consolidation for them may be inevitable." Related Video:

Latest Honda promo film is a Never Ending Race against emissions

A new Honda promotional video shows clips of a hazy, smog-choked Los Angeles in the 1960s and 1970s, and then gives the company credit for its lead role in cutting vehicle-emissions by a factor of one thousand since 1970. Self-serving? Sure. Then again, this LA-native reporter born in 1970 can't help but be somewhat appreciative. The nearly five-minute video takes a tour through Honda history, showing the Japanese automaker using its experience designing race cars to help develop smaller engines such as its four-cylinder CVCC. An early proponent of California's Clean Air Act, Honda recounts its low-emissions history with the first production low-emission vehicle (the 1996 Civic) and the first production ultra-low-emission vehicle (the 1998 Accord), and says it's approaching "near zero emissions" for its new cars. For anyone keeping track, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said late last year that Honda's 2013 model-year vehicles averaged an even 27 miles per gallon, and that's with a fairly limited number of hybrids and plug-ins sold. That number was up from its 26.6 mpg in 2012 and second only to Mazda's 27.5 mpg among the major automakers. The overall 2013 average was 24.0 mpg. Read Honda's press release here and check out the Honda video below. This content is hosted by a third party. To view it, please update your privacy preferences. Manage Settings. Honda's "Never Ending Race" Documents its Four-Decade Battle Against Air Pollution Third film in award-winning Environmental Short Film Series explores Honda's voluntary efforts to reduce vehicle emissions over forty-year period Honda's successful demonstration of low-emissions vehicle technology led state of California to adopt new, more stringent emissions regulations New-vehicle emissions are 1/1000th of 1970 levels Next environmental "race" is against global climate change TORRANCE, Calif., Feb. 13, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- As unprecedented levels of pollution choked the nation's largest cities in the early 1970's, a group of automobile engineers secretly toiled to develop an engine technology that would significantly reduce pollution from automobiles.

GM, Ford, Honda winners in 'Car Wars' study as industry growth continues

General Motors' plans to aggressively refresh its product lineup will pay off in the next four years with strong market share and sales, according to an influential report released Tuesday. Ford, Honda, and FCA are all poised to show similar gains as the auto industry is expected to remain healthy through the rest of the decade. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch study, called Car Wars, analyzes automakers' future product plans for the next four model years. By 2020, 88 percent of GM's sales will come from newly launched products, which puts it slightly ahead of Ford's 86-percent estimate. Honda (85 percent) and FCA (84 percent) follow. The industry average is 81 percent. Toyota checks in just below the industry average at 79 percent, with Nissan trailing at 76 percent. Car Wars' premise is: automakers that continually launch new products are in a better position to grow sales and market share, while companies that roll out lightly updated models are vulnerable to shifting consumer tastes. Though Detroit and Honda grade out well in the study, many major automakers are clumped together, which means large market-share swings are less likely in the coming years. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts the industry will top out with 20 million sales in 2018 and then taper off, perhaps as much as 30 percent by 2026. Not surprisingly, trucks, sport utility vehicles and crossovers will be the key battlefield in the next few years, Car Wars says. FCA will launch a critical salvo in 2018 with a new Ram 1500, followed by new generations of the Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra in 2019, and then Ford's F-150 for 2020, according to the study. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy said the GM trucks could be pulled ahead even earlier to 2018, prompting Ford to respond. "This focus on crossovers and trucks is a great thing for the industry," Murphy said. Cars Wars looks at Korean (76 percent replacement rate) and European companies more vaguely (70 percent), but argues their slower product cadence and lineups with fewer trucks puts them in weaker positions than their competitors through 2020. Related Video: This content is hosted by a third party. To view it, please update your privacy preferences. Manage Settings. Featured Gallery 2016 Chevrolet Silverado View 11 Photos Image Credit: Chevrolet Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Nissan Toyota study FCA