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GM, Ford, Honda winners in 'Car Wars' study as industry growth continues

General Motors' plans to aggressively refresh its product lineup will pay off in the next four years with strong market share and sales, according to an influential report released Tuesday. Ford, Honda, and FCA are all poised to show similar gains as the auto industry is expected to remain healthy through the rest of the decade. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch study, called Car Wars, analyzes automakers' future product plans for the next four model years. By 2020, 88 percent of GM's sales will come from newly launched products, which puts it slightly ahead of Ford's 86-percent estimate. Honda (85 percent) and FCA (84 percent) follow. The industry average is 81 percent. Toyota checks in just below the industry average at 79 percent, with Nissan trailing at 76 percent. Car Wars' premise is: automakers that continually launch new products are in a better position to grow sales and market share, while companies that roll out lightly updated models are vulnerable to shifting consumer tastes. Though Detroit and Honda grade out well in the study, many major automakers are clumped together, which means large market-share swings are less likely in the coming years. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts the industry will top out with 20 million sales in 2018 and then taper off, perhaps as much as 30 percent by 2026. Not surprisingly, trucks, sport utility vehicles and crossovers will be the key battlefield in the next few years, Car Wars says. FCA will launch a critical salvo in 2018 with a new Ram 1500, followed by new generations of the Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra in 2019, and then Ford's F-150 for 2020, according to the study. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy said the GM trucks could be pulled ahead even earlier to 2018, prompting Ford to respond. "This focus on crossovers and trucks is a great thing for the industry," Murphy said. Cars Wars looks at Korean (76 percent replacement rate) and European companies more vaguely (70 percent), but argues their slower product cadence and lineups with fewer trucks puts them in weaker positions than their competitors through 2020. Related Video: This content is hosted by a third party. To view it, please update your privacy preferences. Manage Settings. Featured Gallery 2016 Chevrolet Silverado View 11 Photos Image Credit: Chevrolet Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Nissan Toyota study FCA

Japan wants to boost fuel-cell numbers 100x by 2020

How many hydrogen refueling stations will Japan need? Can each station handle 250 fuel-cell vehicles? They can in the Japanese government's new plans for hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle growth and station deployment throughout the country. With Prime Minister Shinzo Abe continuing to trumpet fuel cells as the advanced powertrain of the future, the government says the number of fuel-cell vehicle on its roads will multiply by 100 within the next four years, according to the Japan Times. Specifically, Japan, which is home to about 400 fuel-cell vehicles today, hopes to have 40,000 by 2020 and a whopping 800,000 by 2030. More importantly, Japan has 80 stations either in operation or slated to be deployed soon, and hopes to double that number by the end of the decade. For perspective's sake, the US has about two-dozen publicly accessible hydrogen fuel cell stations today, according to US Department of Energy. The newer ones are can dispense 100 kilogram a day, which can fuel 20-25 cars a day. Japanese automakers Honda and Toyota appear to be trying to do their parts in the H2 plan. Earlier this month, Honda started leasing its Clarity fuel-cell vehicle in Japan and is planning to bring them to California later in the year. The vehicle, which is priced at about $68,000 in Japan, is said to be able to travel about 466 miles on a full hydrogen tank, per the more lenient Japanese driving cycle (roughly 300 miles on the US scale). Honda will start production at a rate of 200 vehicles a year. With skin in the game, though, Honda indicated late last year that it was frustrated with what it said was the slow pace of fuel-cell station deployment in Japan, according to Bloomberg News. Honda was collaborating with hydrogen supply company Iwatani Corp. on what they called a "Smart Hydrogen Station," though that concept was in its testing phase as of last December. The Mirai also started sales in Japan and debuted in limited numbers in California last year. Last fall, Toyota set a rather lofty goal of selling 30,000 fuel-cell vehicles a year by 2020 as part of its Toyota Environmental Challenge 2050. Related Video: News Source: Japan TimesImage Credit: YOSHIKAZU TSUNO via Getty Images Green Honda Toyota Hydrogen Cars

Japan could consolidate to three automakers by 2020

Sergio Marchionne might see his dream of big mergers in the auto industry become a reality, and an analyst thinks Japan is a likely place for consolidation to happen. Takaki Nakanishi from Jefferies Group LLC tells Bloomberg the country's car market could combine to just three or fewer major players by 2020, from seven today. "To have one or two carmakers in a country is not only natural, but also helpful to their competitiveness," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "Japan has just too many and the resources have been too spread out. It's a natural trend to consolidate and reduce some of the wasted resources." Nakanishi's argument echoes Marchionne's reasons to push for a merger between FCA and General Motors. Automakers spend billions on research and development, but their competitors also invest money to create the same solutions. Consolidating could conceivably put that R&D money into new avenues. "In today's global marketplace, it is increasingly difficult for automakers to compete in lower volume segments like sports cars, hydrogen fuel cells, or electrified vehicles on their own," Ed Kim, vice president of Industry Analysis at AutoPacific, told Autoblog. Even without mergers, these are the areas where Japanese automakers already have partners for development. Kim cited examples like Toyota and Subaru's work on the BRZ and FR-S and its collaboration with BMW on a forthcoming sports car. Honda and GM have also reportedly deepened their cooperation on green car tech. After Toyota's recent buyout of previous partner Daihatsu, Nakanishi agrees with rumors that the automotive giant could next pursue Suzuki. He sees them like a courting couple. "For Suzuki, it's like they're just starting to exchange diaries and have yet to hold hands. When Toyota's starts to hold 5 percent of Suzuki's shares, this will be like finally touching fingertips," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "I absolutely do believe that we are not finished seeing consolidation in Japan," Kim told Autoblog. Rising development costs to meet tougher emissions regulations make it hard for minor players in the market to remain competitive. "The smaller automakers like Suzuki, Mazda, and Mitsubishi are challenged to make it on their own in the global marketplace. Consolidation for them may be inevitable." Related Video: