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U.S. new-vehicle sales in 2018 rise slightly to 17.27 million [UPDATE]

DETROIT — Sales of new vehicles in the U.S. rose slightly in 2018, defying predictions and highlighting a strong economy. Automakers reported an increase of 0.3 percent over a year ago to 17.27 million vehicles. The increase came despite rising interest rates, a volatile stock market, and rising car and truck prices that pushed some buyers out of the new-vehicle market. Industry analysts and automakers said strong economic fundamentals pushed up sales and should keep them near historic highs in 2019. "Economic conditions in the U.S. are favorable and should continue to be supportive of vehicle sales at or around their current run rate," Ford Chief Economist Emily Kolinski Morris said after the company and other automakers announced their sales numbers Thursday. That auto sales remain near the 2016 record of 17.55 million is a testimonial to the strength of the economy, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. The job market, he said, has created new employment, and wage growth has accelerated. "That's fundamental to selling anything," he said. "If there are lots of jobs and people are getting bigger paychecks, they will buy more." The unemployment rate is 3.7 percent, a 49-year low. The economy is thought to have grown close to 3 percent last year, its best performance in more than a decade. Consumers, the main driver of the economy, are spending freely. The Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate four times in 2018 but is only expected to raise it twice this year. Auto sales also were helped by low gasoline prices and rising home values, Zandi said. It all means that people are likely to keep buying new vehicles this year even as they grow more expensive. The Edmunds.com auto-pricing site estimates that the average new vehicle price hit a record $35,957 in December, about 2 percent higher than the previous year. It will be harder for automakers to keep the sales pace above 17 million because they have been enticing buyers for several years now with low-interest financing and other incentives, Zandi said. He predicts more deals in the coming year as job growth slows and credit tightens for higher-risk buyers. Edmunds, which provides content, including automotive tips and reviews, for distribution by The Associated Press, predicts that sales will drop this year to 16.9 million.

GM program sees dealers taking on way more loaner cars

Given the volume of vehicles we're talking about, this is a significant development for GM's bottom line. Bring your car into the dealership for service, and you may need a loaner car in exchange. And with so many recalls being carried out, that means a lot of loaners – especially at General Motors dealerships. That could be one of the reasons why GM is massively expanding its loaner fleet program. While many Chevrolet and Buick-GMC dealerships have an on-site rental car location operated by a third party like Enterprise (which may or may not provide a GM vehicle), others manage their own loaner fleets. But while the range of dealerships operating such fleets was once small, reports Automotive News, the number has been growing rapidly: from the locations responsible for only 20 percent of those brands' sales two years ago to about 90 percent today. The impetus for that growth comes down to a massive expansion of GM's Courtesy Transportation Program. The initiative encourages dealers to ramp up their loaner fleet to a maximum size determined by GM, with a mix determined by the dealer itself, so that a showroom in Texas can be bolstered with a fleet of pickup trucks and a dealer in California can employ more Volt and Camaro Convertible loaners. The dealership gets a $500 credit for each vehicle its puts in its fleet, and can use those vehicles as loaners for service customers, as multi-day test drivers or to rent out separately. The vehicles remain in the dealer's fleet for 90 days or 7,500 miles, then they can be sold as used, but with new-car incentives. The dealer gets a fleet of loaners, customers get to use the loaners, try out a new car overnight or buy a barely used car with attractive incentives, and GM gets to clock more sales. But therein lies the kicker: the automaker counts the dispatch of the loaner new vehicle to the dealership as a new-car sale, which could end up distorting its sales figures. Counting loaner vehicles as sold vehicles is something of an industry-standard practice, but given the volume of vehicles we're talking about, this is a significant development for GM's bottom line. One dealership - Paddock Chevrolet in Kenmore, NY, for example - had no loaner fleet two years ago, but now runs a fleet of 50 vehicles. Multiply that by the 4,000 or so dealers GM has across America and you're talking about the potential for hundreds of thousands of these sorts of sales.

Will GMC enter the subcompact crossover segment after all?

GMC last year categorically ruled out launching a subcompact crossover positioned below the Terrain, but the decade-old rumor refuses to die. The on-again, off-again model is back on track for production, according to a recent report. Citing anonymous sources, enthusiast website GM Authority claims the soft-roader is closer than ever to receiving the proverbial green light for production. It hasn't been approved yet, so development work hasn't started. What it will look like if it receives a thumbs-up from executives is up in the air, but GMC can take several paths into this lucrative (and increasingly popular) segment of America's new-car market. Chevrolet has two fighters in the ring: the Trailblazer and the Trax. GMC could feasibly choose one, put it in a brand-specific wrapper, and call it a day. It could also design its entry from scratch, though this option would take longer and cost significantly more. Either way, the model will allegedly be called Granite or Graphyte, and it will be positioned below the Terrain in terms of size and price, meaning it would likely start above $20,000. In 2019, GMC explained it ruled out expanding its range towards the bottom to position itself as a premium brand. It wanted to focus on high-profit models, like the Sierra and the Canyon, but the crossover's ever-increasing popularity may have proven too alluring to resist. Besides, small and premium aren't mutually exclusive, and downsizing would help the brand increase its annual sales. If you're experiencing deja vu, it's likely because we've heard murmurs about a city-friendly GMC since the Granite concept (pictured) made its debut during the 2010 edition of the Detroit Auto Show. It was approved for production that year, approved again in 2011 (tentatively on a Cruze platform), and abruptly canceled in 2012. GMC hasn't commented on the report, so we'll need to be patient to find out if it's accurate — and how it would differentiate its entry-level crossover from Buick's. In the meantime, the company is putting the final touches on the electric Hummer, which will be offered as a pickup and as an SUV, and it's about to unveil the 2022 Sierra. Featured Gallery GMC Granite Concept Rumormill GMC Crossover