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The next steps automakers could take after sales drop again in April

DETROIT (Reuters) - Major automakers on Tuesday posted declines in U.S. new vehicle sales for April in a sign the long boom cycle that lifted the American auto industry to record sales last year is losing steam, sending carmaker stocks down. The drop in sales versus April 2016 came on the heels of a disappointing March, which automakers had shrugged off as just a bad month. But two straight weak months has heightened Wall Street worries the cyclical industry is on a downward swing after a nearly uninterrupted boom since the Great Recession's end in 2010. Auto sales were a drag on U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product, with the economy growing at an annual rate of just 0.7 percent according to an advance estimate published by the Commerce Department last Friday. Excluding the auto sector the GDP growth rate would have been 1.2 percent. Industry consultant Autodata put the industry's seasonally adjusted annualized rate of sales at 16.88 million units for April, below the average of 17.2 million units predicted by analysts polled by Reuters. General Motors Co shares fell 2.9 percent while Ford Motor Co slid 4.3 percent and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's U.S.-traded shares tumbled 4.2 percent. The U.S. auto industry faces multiple challenges. Sales are slipping and vehicle inventory levels have risen even as carmakers have hiked discounts to lure customers. A flood of used vehicles from the boom cycle are increasingly competing with new cars. The question for automakers: How much and for how long to curtail production this summer, which will result in worker layoffs? To bring down stocks of unsold vehicles, the Detroit automakers need to cut production, and offer more discounts without creating "an incentives war," said Mark Wakefield, head of the North American automotive practice for AlixPartners in Southfield, Michigan. "We see multiple weeks (of production) being taken out on the car side," he said, "and some softness on the truck side." Rival automakers will be watching each other to see if one is cutting prices to gain market share from another, he said, instead of just clearing inventory. INVESTORS DIGEST BAD NEWS Just last week GM reported a record first-quarter profit, but that had almost zero impact on the automaker's stock. The iconic carmaker, whose own interest was once conflated with that of America's, has slipped behind luxury carmaker Tesla Inc in terms of valuation.

The tricky business of octane, power, and MPG

Given tepid green-car sales numbers this year, consumers in the US aren't making the transition away from internal combustion engines too quickly. Regulations are still mandating cleaner emissions, though. In addition to downsizing and turbocharging, there's growing consideration about moving to higher-octane fuel to improve overall efficiency. In a new report, engineers at FCA, Ford and General Motors Powertrain are showing that it could work, too. The major advantage to higher-octane fuel is that it supports higher compression ratios. That in turn can lead to more power from burning the same amount of gas. "Higher ethanol content is one available option for increasing the octane ratings of gasoline and would provide additional engine efficiency benefits for part and full load operation," the researchers write in the study's abstract. The authors even think it could be possible to update some modern vehicles' engine calibration to be optimized for the better gas. While the benefits are there, we still have a long way to go before higher-octane fuel becomes a national standard. According to Green Car Congress, 87 percent of the gas sold in the US is regular grade 87-octane. Meanwhile, premium 91-93 octane makes up just 10 percent. The various grades of fuel illuminate even more annoyances with the current system. For example, Ford generally recommends 93-octane for EcoBoost engines, and the power outputs that the company publishes are based on using it. However according to Green Car Reports, such premium gas is very difficult to find in some regions of the US, especially along the West Coast. The powertrains still run on lesser grades but with lower power output. The researchers' discussion of possibly increasing ethanol in gas also comes during a heated debate on the substance. The current administration is pushing for less of the corn-based fuel in the coming years. Although, several presidential hopefuls might be favor of reversing that course.

Ford and Chrysler reducing summer plant shutdowns

Most domestic automaker assembly plants traditionally take a couple of weeks off during the summer. The shutdowns give each plant time for much needed repairs and maintenance, and in some cases, help better align production with demand. Not this year, though, as demand for many models is outstripping what Ford, Chrysler and General Motors plants can produce.
Ford has announced that it will shorten its annual summer shutdown for most North American plants from two weeks to one. The shorter shutdown will increase the carmaker's annual North American production by 40,000 units on top of the 200,000 extra units that it was already planning to produce this year versus last. Automotive News reports that Ford produced 2.8 million vehicles on this continent in 2012, and that output this year has already increased 13 percent through April.
Chrysler, meanwhile, is also operating at full tilt and plans to run some plants through the summer with no shutdown at all. Those not getting a break include Jefferson North where the Jeep Grand Cherokee and Dodge Durango are assembled, Toledo North that will assemble the new Cherokee, and Conner Avenue, home of SRT Viper production. Other assembly plants will be down for a single week, while all of Chrysler's engine and transmission plants except one in Indiana will continue operating with no shutdown this summer.