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Lincoln Nautilus, Ford Edge latest prediction: Production ends in July 2024

In June, Auto Forecast Solutions put out a report compiled by its vice president of global forecasting, Sam Fiorani. One item in the report covered how Fiorani had heard from "multiple sources" that Ford shut down the program to replace the Edge crossover in 2023. Assuming this came to pass, with the Lincoln Nautilus based on the Edge, the inference is that the Nautilus would retire at or around the same time. Ford's response to media queries about the report was either "No comment" or PR-speak deflection. Lincoln's statement on the matter to Motor1, a crafty non-answer, was, "The Nautilus plays and will continue to play an important role in Lincoln’s growing SUV portfolio which includes the Corsair, Aviator and Navigator. Lincoln is investing in growth segments like SUVs and we have no plans to exit the segment." It's possible Lincoln has no plans to leave the segment, but the Nautilus might, according to a fresh, unsourced report in Ford Authority. The site claims the Nautilus will end production at the Oakville Assembly Plant in Ontario, Canada, in July 2024.  Again, we can't know how much, if any of this, is true. But we're zeroing in on a timeline for the potential end of the Edge and Nautilus in the U.S. Those are the only two products Oakville currently builds, and when the Canadian union Unifor asked Ford about the reports in June, Ford couldn't offer union reps anything concrete or reassuring. The Detroit News quoted Unifor chief Jerry Dias as saying of the automaker, "There is no question, they are going through a major evaluation of their portfolio, based on a whole host of things."   We could be seeing one of the earlier theories for Edge's potential demise coming true. Some analysts suspect Ford could be pruning its crossover lineup because it has too many similarly-sized offerings at the moment, the Edge hasn't met its sales targets in Europe, and more compact crossovers are on the way that could bring better street cred if they're associated with the Bronco or Bronco Sport. Unifor and Ford are now in negotiations over a new contract, so it's possible we'll get more clarity in the next month or so about Ford's plans and what will come of Oakville and its roughly 4,000 workers. If Ford walks away from the assembly plant, it will only have two engine plants left in Canada, and no vehicle assembly north of the border for the first time in about a century.

Will Ford's SUV blitz include the Bronco?

Ford announced this week it will add four sport-utility vehicles in the next four years, an ambitious bet on a segment the industry once shunned. This led to wild speculation about what form these utes will take. Here's what we know: They will be new nameplates, and Ford is thinking globally. That means at least one might not be a product with US intent. They will also be in segments where the company does not currently compete, Ford said. The Blue Oval isn't specifying exactly what's it's doing, so here are some of our theories. We think one will be called the Bronco, which is great news for enthusiasts. We hope it follows the Mustang playbook with some heritage styling, but a thoroughly modern execution. Ford needs an off-road Jeep Wrangler-fighter. Fuel prices are low and it's been 22 years since the infamous O.J. Simpson white Bronco chase. This is the best chance Ford will ever have to bring back this iconic name. Our man on the ground at the Chicago Auto show, Sebastian Blanco, reported that Ford sales and marketing vice president Mark LaNeve said a "mini utility" will also be one of the utes. This could be primarily an overseas play. We've also seen lots of spy shots of the EcoSport, a small crossover that Ford sells in India and other overseas markets, being tested on American roads. That is an existing nameplate. Maybe Ford adds a small ute related to the EcoSport in the United States, but calls it something else. We think Lincoln gets a three-row SUV out of the deal. It could slot between the MKX, which was new last year, and the Navigator. Lincoln is leaving money on the table by not being in this segment. The platform could be used for a Ford at some point, too. The Blue Oval brand does actually have a tweener three-row vehicle, the Flex, but this chassis might underpin a replacement. Or maybe Ford makes one of these a hybrid. The company laid out ambitious plans in December to ramp up its electrification strategy, something that could mean a dedicated hybrid SUV (Kia unveiled one of those right after LaNeve's speech in Chicago). It's also possible hybrid technology will be integrated into this new portfolio. The Escape used to have a hybrid sibling. Whatever form they ultimately take, Ford is betting heavily on SUVs. The company thinks they are what Baby Boomers and Millenials want and expects the segment will continue to grow. It's important to note: this will be a diversified strategy.

Detroit Three to lose dominance of North American auto output in 2017

DETROIT — North American vehicle production by the unionized Detroit Three automakers will fall behind the combined North American output of Tesla and automakers from Europe and Asia for the first time this year, IHS Markit forecast on Wednesday. In 2017, the Detroit Three could build 8.6 million vehicles in North America, while Tesla and foreign automakers build 8.7 million, IHS Markit analyst Joe Langley said. By 2024, the gap will widen, with Asian and European automakers and Tesla combining to build about 9.8 million vehicles in North America. General Motors, Ford and the North American operations of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV will combine to build 8.1 million vehicles, down 6 percent from this year. Mexico is on track to increase its share of North American vehicle production, Langley said, moving to 4.5 million vehicles a year by 2024 from about 4 million vehicles currently. The milestone for the growth of Tesla and foreign automakers in North America comes as the Trump administration is pushing to limit imports of vehicles from Mexico in negotiations to overhaul the North American Free Trade Agreement. The declining share of North American vehicle production for the Detroit automakers also challenges U.S. and Canadian unions that represent their workers. Canadian workers are on strike at a GM factory in Ontario to protest the automaker's decision to cut jobs and move to Mexico some production of sport utility models built there. Foreign automakers over the past year have announced plans for a wave of new or expanded plants in North America, while Tesla is ramping up to build as many as 500,000 cars a year at its plant in Fremont, Calif. Often referred to as "transplants," the foreign-owned factories are poised to become the mainstream of the North American auto industry. Automakers are increasingly using factories in China or Mexico to build vehicles that used to be assembled solely in the United States, Langley said. He cited as an example Ford's decision to shift production of the Focus small car for North America to a Chinese assembly plant. Reporting by Joseph WhiteRelated Video: Image Credit: Reuters Plants/Manufacturing Chrysler Ford GM