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How tariffs in China could cause a meltdown in the American South

While BMW is clearly a German company, the crossovers that are exceedingly important to it are actually made in Spartanburg, South Carolina. And more than that, the Spartanburg plant (physically located in the town of Greer) is where the corporate know-how and capability for those vehicles is concentrated. These are the vehicles – specifically, the BMW X3, X4, X5, X6, X7 – that drove record growth for the company in 2018, according to BMW. But whatÂ’s most notable about BMW Group Plant Spartanburg, given current events, is that according to the U.S. Department of Commerce it was the largest automotive exporter by value for the fifth year running in 2018. ThatÂ’s worth emphasizing: largest automotive exporter by value. Not GM. Not Ford. BMW. And where might one assume that more than a few of those X vehicles are shipped to? China. Some 360 miles southwest of Spartanburg is Mercedes-Benz U.S. International, Inc., in in Tuscaloosa County, Alabama. It started building vehicles in 1997. Since then, Daimler AG has invested in excess of $5.5 billion in the facility. It manufactures the crossover now known as the GLE, formerly the ML-Class. It also makes the GLE coupe and GLS. Daimler describes the Tuscaloosa facility as “the traditional home of SUV production” for those vehicles. When it reported its global 2018 sales, Daimler noted that on a global basis SUVs account “for more than a third of all Mercedes-Benz sales.” According to the Chinese finance ministry, on December 15th the Chinese government will impose a 25% tariff on automobiles (and a 5% tariff on auto parts) from the U.S. Certainly this is going to have a direct effect on the sales of vehicles that are manufactured in the U.S. and exported to China. BMW and Mercedes are going to take it on the chin for the vehicles that they make in plants that they invested in so heavily in the U.S. Which could potentially mean that people in places like Greer, South Carolina, and Vance, Alabama, are going to find themselves in the crosshairs of the combatants. Soo too could Lincoln, which produces vehicles in places like Louisville, Kentucky (Navigator), Chicago, Illinois (Aviator) and Flat Rock, Michigan (Continental). Although the Tesla Gigafactory 3 is rapidly nearing completion in Shanghai, it is worth noting that vehicles built in Fremont, California, are being sold in China in numbers that donÂ’t make Musk unhappy.

America was the unexpected theme at the 2017 Detroit Auto Show thanks to Trump

President-elect Donald Trump was not in attendance at this year's Detroit Auto Show, but it sure seemed like he was the target audience for many of the press conferences and announcements surrounding the event. Several manufacturers chose to play up existing and future commitments to the US in general and American jobs specifically in their presentations to the press, and we're pretty sure that has everything to do with Trump's recent targeting of automakers on Twitter. To us, it seemed automakers were going on the offensive to try and preempt any future tweet-shaming for investing in auto manufacturing anywhere but the US. The pro-America sentiment started the week prior to the auto show, with Ford announcing that it would build several future electrified vehicles at its Flat Rock Assembly Plant in Michigan and also cancel a $1.6 billion factory planned for Mexico. Ford announced the two items on the same day, but the reality is that they likely have no relation to each other; the Mexican plant is being skipped because the company doesn't need the extra capacity to build the Ford Focus right now. Trump was still happy to share the news on Twitter. Then, on Sunday, FCA announced it would invest $1 billion in manufacturing plants in Ohio and Michigan to produce the new Jeep Wagoneer, Grand Wagoneer, and Wrangler-based pickup. It's not as though those potential new jobs were on their way out of the US, necessarily, but FCA took the opportunity to mention that plant upgrades at the Warren Truck Plant would allow the company to build Ram heavy duty trucks, which are currently assembled in Mexico, there. CEO Sergio Marchionne confirmed that Trump and his proposed tariffs had nothing to do with the decision. We certainly believe that, but we also have to believe that the timing of the release, positive outcome for America, and zero gain for Mexico were all orchestrated. Again, Trump sent out a victory tweet as if this had been his doing. Ford then used its press conference at the show on Monday to reiterate the plans for Flat Rock and also confirm that the Ford Bronco and Ranger nameplates will be returning to the US market, and that both will be built at a plant in Michigan. Announcements of manufacturing locations are usually aimed at the UAW, which certainly has a stake in these things, but again this one was broadcast to the auto show crowd in general.

Ford surges with record 2Q profit

We already knew that the second quarter of 2015 has been good to General Motors. For Ford, though, it's been even better. The Blue Oval saw a net income of $1.9 billion, $800 million more than its larger cross-town rival. Pre-tax profits were even more impressive, at $2.9B. Those figures aren't only more impressive than what GM could conjure up, they improved handily over the same period in 2014. Net profits were up by $574 million, or a staggering 44 percent, while pre-tax profits saw a 10-percent bump over 2014. Ford Credit also had a strong quarter, raking in just over half a billion dollars before taxes. So yeah, Ford calling Q2 "outstanding" in its press release is no exaggeration. The vast majority of Ford's positive Q2 can be attributed to the North American market, which made up $2.6 billion of the company's pre-tax profits. South America, the Middle East, and Europe were all down, although Asia delivered some relief, making $192 million before taxes. Scroll down for the official press brief from Ford. JUL 28, 2015 | DEARBORN, MICH. FORD REPORTS STRONG SECOND QUARTER RESULTS; PRE-TAX PROFIT $2.9 BILLION; NET INCOME $1.9 BILLION DEARBORN, Mich., July 28, 2015 – Ford Motor Company [NYSE: Ford] today reported its 2015 second quarter financial results. View the press release here and visit shareholder.ford.com to view the slide presentation and access the webcast to Ford's second quarter earnings call, which begins at 9 a.m. EDT with Mark Fields, president and chief executive officer, and Bob Shanks, executive vice president and chief financial officer. Highlights Include: Outstanding second quarter; company on track for a breakthrough year Pre-tax profit of $2.9B, up $269M or 10 percent from a year ago excluding last year's special item charges Net income of $1.9B, up $574M or 44 percent from a year ago After-tax earnings per share of 47 cents, up 7 cents from a year ago excluding last year's special item charges Best Automotive quarterly profit since 2000 Wholesale volume up 2 percent, driven by North America and Europe Automotive revenue about equal, with higher net pricing and volume offset by unfavorable translation effects of the strong U.S.