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2016: The year of the autonomous-car promise

About half of the news we covered this year related in some way to The Great Autonomous Future, or at least it seemed that way. If you listen to automakers, by 2020 everyone will be driving (riding?) around in self-driving cars. But what will they look like, how will we make the transition from driven to driverless, and how will laws and infrastructure adapt? We got very few answers to those questions, and instead were handed big promises, vague timelines, and a dose of misdirection by automakers. There has been a lot of talk, but we still don't know that much about these proposed vehicles, which are at least three years off. That's half a development cycle in this industry. We generally only start to get an idea of what a company will build about two years before it goes on sale. So instead of concrete information about autonomous cars, 2016 has brought us a lot of promises, many in the form of concept cars. They have popped up from just about every automaker accompanied by the CEO's pledge to deliver a Level 4 autonomous, all-electric model (usually a crossover) in a few years. It's very easy to say that a static design study sitting on a stage will be able to drive itself while projecting a movie on the windshield, but it's another thing entirely to make good on that promise. With a few exceptions, 2016 has been stuck in the promising stage. It's a strange thing, really; automakers are famous for responding with "we don't discuss future product" whenever we ask about models or variants known to be in the pipeline, yet when it comes to self-driving electric wondermobiles, companies have been falling all over themselves to let us know that theirs is coming soon, it'll be oh so great, and, hey, that makes them a mobility company now, not just an automaker. A lot of this is posturing and marketing, showing the public, shareholders, and the rest of the industry that "we're making one, too, we swear!" It has set off a domino effect – once a few companies make the guarantee, the rest feel forced to throw out a grandiose yet vague plan for an unknown future. And indeed there are usually scant details to go along with such announcements – an imprecise mileage estimate here, or a far-off, percentage-based goal there. Instead of useful discussion of future product, we get demonstrations of test mules, announcements of big R&D budgets and new test centers they'll fund, those futuristic concept cars, and, yeah, more promises.

2015 F-150 launch to curb Ford profits?

Ford is making a big bet on aluminum with its new 2015 F-150, and it's possible that the decision will hurt the company financially, at least in the short term. After earning a record $8.6 billion in 2013, the Blue Oval does not expect to set another record in 2014. According to Automotive News, that's "largely attributable to F Series," says Bob Shanks, Ford's Chief Financial Officer.
To retool for the new F-150, Ford will idle its Dearborn Truck Plant in Michigan for 11 weeks and the Ford Kansas City Assembly Plant in Missouri for 2 weeks. "3 of the 13 overall weeks occur during what normally is our summer shutdown timeframe," said Mike Levine, Ford Trucks Communication Manager, in an email to Autoblog. The extra 10 weeks will be preparing for the more aluminum-intensive construction for the trucks and will mean over 2 months of no F-150s being made. For comparison's sake, Chrysler boss Sergio Marchionne just confirmed that the 200 plant in Sterling Heights, MI will be down for 30 days to retool for the new model, but obviously there are many more F-150 production variables than for the midsize sedan.
Levine notes that Ford is already running three shifts at both plants, and says the automaker has plans to ensure that there is adequate supply of the full-size pickups during the retooling process. The company does not want to suffer a shortage of the vehicle that accounted for 31-percent of its 2013 US sales and an even bigger percentage of its profits.

Weekly Recap: Audi pulls back the curtain on its future

The E-Tron Quattro concept is the future of Audi. It embodies all of the traits that will make the brand – and electric-powered luxury vehicles – more relevant into the 2020s. Here's why: The E-Tron Quattro concept, which will debut next month at the Frankfurt Motor Show, is a large sport utility vehicle that promises a range of 311 miles. It's an all-electric daily driver that fits the needs of most Americans. In production – which Audi says starts in 2018 – this vehicle will seat five and likely be called the Q6. You can take your family from Boston to Philadelphia without recharging. That's mainstream. We're moving away from the industry's "science experiment" era (as General Motors product chief Mark Reuss once described the appearance of the first gen-Chevy Volt) to a period where electric vehicles are plausible and practical for many US buyers. The 2018 Q6's only holdup for the masses will be price. But if you can afford an Audi SUV, you'll be able to buy an all-electric version. The E-Tron concept uses Volkswagen Group's second-generation modular longitudinal platform. The lithium-ion battery is located between the axles and below the cabin. Urquhart says the production model will feature the automaker's latest battery technology developed with LG Chem and Samsung. IHS Automotive projects the Q6 will sell more than 40,000 units annually by the end of the decade. "The E-Tron Quattro is a precursor for what will be an exciting and landmark production model for Audi and will position the brand at the forefront of the premium EV market," IHS analyst Tim Urquhart wrote in a commentary. It's the Tesla-zation of America. It's the Tesla-zation of America. The Q6 will be a Model X fighter, and expect other automakers to follow suit, particularly in the luxury sector with SUVs and other large vehicles. They offer more space for the battery packs, and development costs can be recovered easier. "Premium brands have an inbuilt advantage in terms of introducing [electric] powertrains over more mainstream automotive brands," Urquhart wrote. OTHER NEWS & NOTES Analyst says Tesla stock could be worth $465 a share Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas sent shockwaves through the industry when he said Tesla stock has the potential to reach a whopping $465 a share. That's a leap from its $230.77 price at Friday's market close.