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Honda poised for growth, Detroit to hold steady, Car Wars study says

The automotive industry is expected to keep booming in the US over the next several years, but the train might start running out of steam in the long term, according to 2015's Car Wars report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy. The forecast focuses on changes between the 2016 and 2019 model years, and the latest trends appear similar in some cases to the past predictions. Sales are expected to keep growing and reach a peak of 20 million in 2018, according to the Detroit Free Press. The expansion is projected to come from a quick pace of vehicle launches, with an average of 48 introductions a year – 26 percent more than in 1996. Crossovers are expected to make up a third of these, maintaining their strong popularity. However, Murphy predicts a decline, as well. By 2025, total sales could fall to around 15 million units. As of May 2015, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for this year stands at 17.71 million. Like last year, Honda is predicted to be a big winner in the future thanks to products like the next-gen Civic. "Honda should be the biggest market share gainer," Murphy said when presenting the report, according to Free Press. Meanwhile, in a situation similar to Car Wars from 2012, a lack of many new vehicles is expected to cause a drop for Hyundai, Kia, and Nissan. Based on this forecast, Ford, General Motors, and FCA US will all generally maintain market share for the coming years. The report does make some future product predictions, though. The next Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra might come in 2019, which is earlier than expected. Also, Lincoln could get a Mustang-based coupe for 2017, a compact sedan for 2018 and an Explorer-based model in 2019, according to the Free Press. Related Video: News Source: The Detroit Free PressImage Credit: Nam Y. Huh / AP Photo Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Lincoln Car Buying fca us

EV tax credits: Here's every electric car or plug-in hybrid that qualifies

Starting on April 18, the Internal Revenue Service released new guidance for U.S. buyers shopping for a new electric or plug-in hybrid vehicle. On April 18th, the IRS showed only six fully electric vehicles on the qualified list, but a day later Volkswagen confirmed its U.S.-built ID.4 also qualifies. That means right now, seven fully electric vehicles qualify for the full $7,500 EV tax credit, with three more from Chevrolet coming for the 2024 model year (we would expect these 2024 models to roll out slowly and be difficult to find for at least the first few months they are on the market). In addition to those seven fully electric cars, two plug-in hybrids also qualify for the full $7,500 credit. To qualify, a vehicle must be assembled in North America and must meet a strict set of guidelines that cover where battery materials were sourced. If any battery materials come from certain countries (importantly including China), the vehicle's tax credit is automatically cut in half. Further, according to the IRS, the vehicle's manufacturer suggested retail price (MSRP) can't exceed $80,000 for vans, sport utility vehicles and pickup trucks or $55,000 for any other type of vehicle (basically meaning sedans). Electric vehicles that qualify for the full $7,500 EV tax credit: Cadillac Lyriq (2023-2024) Chevrolet Blazer EV (2024) Chevrolet Bolt EV (2023-2024) Chevrolet Bolt EUV (2023-2024) Chevrolet Equinox (2024) Chevrolet Silverado (2024) Ford F-150 Lightning — all models (2022-2023) Tesla Model 3 Performance (2022-2023) Tesla Model Y — all models (2022-2023) Volkswagen ID.4 — U.S.-built models (2022-2023) Plug-in hybrid cars that qualify for the full $7,500 EV tax credit: Chrysler Pacifica PHEV (2022-2023) Lincoln Aviator Grand Touring (2022-2023) A smaller credit is offered on fully electric cars and plug-in hybrids that are assembled in North America but have batteries with materials sourced from unqualified countries (mostly China).

Ford says utility vehicles are key to global growth

While most of us believe that small, fuel efficient cars are the key to global expansion for US automakers, Jim Farley, Ford's vice president of Global Marketing, thinks otherwise. Last week, we attended an exclusive sneak preview of the Ford Edge Concept in advance of the Los Angeles Auto Show, and Farley told us that it's actually utility vehicles that will help the Blue Oval gain market share overseas. "There is no other segment in our industry that is growing like utilities," he said. "We expect over the next five years this full family of [utility] vehicles to really drive our growth as a company."
And Farley has the numbers to back it up, too. Ford projects overall automotive sales to grow 23 percent from 2012 to 2017, but the company's utility vehicles are expected to boom by an impressive 41 percent during that same period. Much of that growth will be in China, where Ford estimates its utility sales will explode. "The biggest opportunity for us globally for utilities is in China," Farley said. "China utility growth is expected to more than double from where it is today to 2017, which isn't that far away." Most astounding is that Ford projects its own utility sales in China will eventually increase by more than 2,000 percent when smaller crossovers, such as the EcoSport and Kuga (sold as the Escape in North America), and the Edge and Explorer, are factored in.
Ford's VP also expects utilities to lead the way in the struggling European market. "With all the difficulties of the European market, there is one segment that has actually expanded in volume over the last several years even though the market is way down, and that's utilities," Farley told us. Ford estimates that their utility sales will grow 65 percent in Europe from 2012-2017. "The utility segment is projected to grow we think about thirty percent between now and 2017 in Europe, and we think we are going to grow twice that rate as a brand," Farley continued.