1950 Ford F-1 Pickup on 2040-cars

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2016: The year of the autonomous-car promise

About half of the news we covered this year related in some way to The Great Autonomous Future, or at least it seemed that way. If you listen to automakers, by 2020 everyone will be driving (riding?) around in self-driving cars. But what will they look like, how will we make the transition from driven to driverless, and how will laws and infrastructure adapt? We got very few answers to those questions, and instead were handed big promises, vague timelines, and a dose of misdirection by automakers. There has been a lot of talk, but we still don't know that much about these proposed vehicles, which are at least three years off. That's half a development cycle in this industry. We generally only start to get an idea of what a company will build about two years before it goes on sale. So instead of concrete information about autonomous cars, 2016 has brought us a lot of promises, many in the form of concept cars. They have popped up from just about every automaker accompanied by the CEO's pledge to deliver a Level 4 autonomous, all-electric model (usually a crossover) in a few years. It's very easy to say that a static design study sitting on a stage will be able to drive itself while projecting a movie on the windshield, but it's another thing entirely to make good on that promise. With a few exceptions, 2016 has been stuck in the promising stage. It's a strange thing, really; automakers are famous for responding with "we don't discuss future product" whenever we ask about models or variants known to be in the pipeline, yet when it comes to self-driving electric wondermobiles, companies have been falling all over themselves to let us know that theirs is coming soon, it'll be oh so great, and, hey, that makes them a mobility company now, not just an automaker. A lot of this is posturing and marketing, showing the public, shareholders, and the rest of the industry that "we're making one, too, we swear!" It has set off a domino effect – once a few companies make the guarantee, the rest feel forced to throw out a grandiose yet vague plan for an unknown future. And indeed there are usually scant details to go along with such announcements – an imprecise mileage estimate here, or a far-off, percentage-based goal there. Instead of useful discussion of future product, we get demonstrations of test mules, announcements of big R&D budgets and new test centers they'll fund, those futuristic concept cars, and, yeah, more promises.

What next for Alan Mulally?

Alan Mulally has emerged as a hero when it comes to American manufacturing. He came to Ford in 2006 after serving as head of Boeing's commercial aircraft division, streamlined operations, sold off the costly elements of its Premier Automotive Group and saved Ford from having to be bailed out by the federal government like its cross-town rivals Chrysler and General Motors did. But as we reported mere days ago, he's widely expected to step down from the chief executive's office at Ford shortly.
So what's next for one of the most successful executives in the business? Hard to say, but don't expect Mulally to disappear into retirement. Though he didn't ultimately take the top job at Microsoft, industry insiders expect to see him in another influential position - likely as a board director or even chairman of another company. (We say "another company" and not Ford because while Bill Ford may have stepped aside as CEO to bring Mulally on board in the first place, we don't see him giving up his chairmanship of the board also.)
Mulally has likely already lined up his next move, and could either announce what that move will be as soon as Ford confirms Mark Fields as his successor, or could wait awhile. Insiders speculate that he could leverage his transportation and aerospace experience into a position at General Electric or a major airline, his manufacturing expertise to benefit a company like Procter & Gamble or his management skills at a consultancy firm.

Recharge Wrap-up: Daimler spending big for fuel cells, Ford Go!Drive experiment advances

Ford's Go!Drive experiment is entering its beta phase in London. The project, which is one of the automaker's global smart mobility experiments, uses a mobile app for on-demand carsharing of Ford Focus Electric and Ford Fiesta vehicles. The beta phase involves increasing the number of available vehicles from 20 to 50, and collecting new data from users. The program offers one-way rentals and guaranteed parking, with no membership fees and a cost of 26 cents per minute. Ford hopes to get 2,000 drivers involved in the program. Read more at Green Car Congress. Daimler will invest billions of dollars to upgrade the Mercedes-Benz Unterturkheim plant over the next few years. This year alone, it plans to spend $1.06 billion. The company expects cost savings "in the range of hundreds of millions of euros until 2020," while maintaining its workforce of 18,700 employees and adding 150 vocational training positions. The upgrades will allow the plant to become a center for building more efficient engines, hybrid powertrains and fuel cell systems. "Alternative drive systems are an important element of our future mobility," says Mercedes-Benz's Markus Schafer. "Their share of automotive production is set to steadily rise over the next few years, complementing our highly efficient engines within the portfolio. This is what we have laid the groundwork for today." Read more at Reuters, or in the press release below. The Department of Energy is providing $20 million in funding for the development of more efficient high speed industrial motors and drives. Ditching old motors and gearboxes for ones that use integrated power electronics could help decrease the energy consumption of the industrial sector, which currently uses more than 25 percent of the electricity generated in the US. The projects being funded will reduce losses and decrease the size of drive systems used in industries like petroleum refining and natural gas, which could affect the lifecycle efficiency of transportation fuels. Read more at Energy.gov.