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Ferrari, not Tesla, might be the stock to buy

Last week Tesla's earnings – or lack thereof – were one of the big stories in the auto industry. As usual, the electric carmaker didn't make money, but the news sent the market, analysts, and Tesla's devoted fans into a lather. But another company, this plucky upstart called Ferrari, also attracted a positive reaction from the market and actually had the financials to back it up. Ferrari posted net revenues of $898 million (at today's exchange rates) EBITDA of $265 million (a slightly complicated way to snapshot financial performance) and an adjusted net profit of $136 million in the first quarter. The company delivered 2,003 cars, and sales of its V12 models increased 50 percent. It quietly made progress nearly a year and a half into its life as an independent automaker. For 2017, Ferrari expects to deliver 8,400 cars and rake in net revenue of $3.6 billion. No one thought Ferrari would flounder when Fiat Chrysler Automobiles spun it off in fall 2015. With a rich history, expensive products, and its own loyal fan base that's arguably even larger than Tesla's, the company seemed poised for success, though skeptics wondered how it might fare after longtime chief Luca di Montezemolo stepped down before the spinoff. Plus, the company remains within the FCA sphere, as its key stakeholders are largely connected to its former parent in some way, and Chairman Sergio Marchionne also steers FCA. Last week's results showed Ferrari is gaining footing in the evolving automotive world, and analysts responded. UBS analyst Michael Binetti reiterated Ferrari stock (RACE on the NYSE) as buy status and raised his target price from $85 to $92. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas was even more bullish, raising projections to $100 in the next 12 months. Shares were trading around $82 Monday morning. Both analysts viewed Ferrari as something different than a conventional automaker stock, with Binetti comparing it to luxury house Hermes, which produces high margins even for a specialty goods maker. Jonas suggested Ferrari's singular reputation and history (16 Formula One Constructors titles, the most ever) could insulate its products when autonomous and electric cars become even more commonplace. "In our view, a Ferrari is not transportation," he wrote in a note to clients. "Ownership is viewed as an exclusive club, and membership requires more than just money.

Sebastian Vettel's 13-race losing streak reflects Ferrari's struggles

MONACO — Sebastian Vettel's barren spell with Ferrari stretches to a dismal 13 Formula One races without a win, dating back to the Belgian Grand Prix last August. The veteran driver still holds No. 1 status at Ferrari mainly because of his experience. At times this season he has been slower than Charles Leclerc, his young and highly-motivated colleague keen to make an impression in his first season with the team. When asked if Vettel's performances had fallen below expectations for a four-time world champion, team boss Mattia Binotto defended him and said the problems were not down to the 31-year-old German. "First we need a good car ... which is performing sufficiently well to win," Binotto said. "It may be frustrating for him, no doubt. But first it's our duty to give him (one) that he can perform well (in)." The car is apparently not an issue Ferrari had anticipated. After strong performances in pre-season testing, it was touted as the team to beat, and even five-time champion Lewis Hamilton — winner of the past two championships — said so. But Hamilton and Mercedes teammate Valtteri Bottas have won all five races this season while Ferrari has a measly three podium places. The team's last win was by Kimi Raikkonen at the United States GP last October, two months after Vettel's victory in Spa. While Mercedes is all about smooth running, Ferrari's car is blighted by a front suspension issue, a deficit in cornering speed and such basic trouble as getting enough heat into the tires quickly enough. Ferrari's passionate tifosi fans, who are waiting for a first drivers' title since Raikkonen in 2007, are not happy with the current standings. Vettel is fourth, nearly 50 points behind championship leader Hamilton, while Leclerc is fifth. "After winter testing our confidence in the performance was higher than today," Binotto said with an air of resignation. "There are a lot of points to recover." Binotto has been with Ferrari a long time and was promoted from chief technical officer to team principal in January. He took over the role from Maurizio Arrivabene after two frustrating years in which Ferrari blew the title race, due to a bizarre combination of panicky errors from Vettel and a string of baffling strategical and technical mistakes within the team. Now there are worrying echoes of 2016 — when Ferrari failed to win a single race and Mercedes crushed its rivals.

Ferrari looks to cut 20% total C02 emissions over 7 years

In the late 1970s, performance cars suffered a huge blow when the necessity for better economy and lower emissions crippled their power. It took nearly a decade for the horsepower to return. Today, we're in the middle of another push for greater vehicle efficiency, but don't expect another era of malaise this time. Instead, lightweight materials, turbos and hybrids mean that everyone can be happy. However, the pressure to clean up isn't just for the mass market, supercars must improve too, but Ferrari at least seems to be taking on the challenge in stride.
Ferrari Powertrain Director Vittorio Dini recently told Automotive News Europe that the Prancing Horse will improve its current average C02 emissions of 270 grams per kilometer by 20 percent by 2021, to reach about 216 grams of C02 per kilometer. To achieve these lofty ambitions, the company will exploit a relatively simple path. "In the future, all of our V8s will use turbos," said Dini said to ANE. Also, its V12s will use hybridization because it'll be a better choice for them compared to the heat of multiple turbos, he claimed.
The first steps of this strategy are already in front of us. The new California T ditches its naturally aspirated V8 in favor of a smaller displacement, more powerful turbocharged unit, and the LaFerrari is already using the hybrid V12. Dini's quote certainly lends some credence to the rumor that the 2015 refresh for the 458 Italia may use an even more powerful version of the California's turbo V8. With a new Ferrari model planned for each year between now and 2018, the Prancing Horse seems unperturbed by any threats posed by emissions.