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China-FCA merger could be a win-win for everyone but politicians

NEW YORK — Fiat Chrysler boss Sergio Marchionne has said the car industry needs to come together, cut costs and stop incinerating capital. So far, his words have mostly fallen on deaf ears among competitors in Europe and North America. But it appears Marchionne has finally found a receptive audience — in China. FCA shares soared Monday after trade publication Automotive News reported the $18 billion Italian-American conglomerate controlled by the Agnelli family rebuffed a takeover from an unidentified carmaker from the Chinese mainland. As ugly as the politics of such a combination may appear at first blush, a transaction could stack up industrially, and perhaps even financially. A Sino-U.S.-European merger would create the first truly global auto group. That could push consolidation to the next level elsewhere. Moreover, China is the world's top market for the SUVs that Jeep effectively invented, so it might benefit FCA financially. A combo would certainly help upgrade the domestic manufacturer; Chinese carmakers have gotten better at making cars, but struggle to build global brands, and they need to develop export markets. Though frivolous overseas shopping excursions by Chinese enterprises are being reined in by Beijing, acquisitions that support the modernization and transformation of strategic industries still receive support, and the government considers the automotive industry to be strategic. A purchase of FCA by Guangzhou Automobile, Great Wall or Dongfeng Motors would probably get the same stamp of approval ChemChina was given for its $43 billion takeover of Syngenta. What's standing in the way? Apart from price (Automotive News said FCA's board deemed the offer insufficient) there's the not-insignificant matter of politics. Even as FCA shares soared, President Donald Trump interrupted his vacation to instruct the U.S. Trade Representative to look into whether to investigate China's trade policies on intellectual property. Seeing storied Detroit brands like Jeep, Chrysler, Ram and Dodge handed off to a Chinese company would provoke howls among Trump's economic-nationalist supporters. It might not play well in Italy, either, to see Alfa Romeo and Maserati answering to Wuhan instead of Turin — though Automotive News said they might be spun off separately. Yet, as Morgan Stanley observes, "cars don't ship across oceans easily," and political considerations increasingly demand local manufacture of valuable products.

The Chrysler brand could be axed under Stellantis management

MILAN — While running NissanÂ’s North American operations from 2009 to 2011, Carlos Tavares had a reputation for closely watching costs with little tolerance for vehicles or ventures that didnÂ’t make money. Experts say that means Tavares, currently the head of PSA Group, is likely to follow that blueprint when he becomes leader of a merged PSA and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles. The low-performing Chrysler brand might get the axe as could slow-selling cars, SUVs or trucks that lack potential. Already the companies are talking about consolidating vehicle platforms — the underpinnings and powertrains — to save billions in engineering and manufacturing costs. That could mean job losses in Italy, Germany and Michigan as PSA Peugeot technology is integrated into North American and Italian vehicles. “You canÂ’t be cost efficient if you keep the entire scale of both companies,” said Karl Brauer, executive analyst for the iSeeCars.com auto website. “WeÂ’ve seen this show before, and weÂ’re going to see it again where they economize these platforms across continents, across multiple markets.” Shareholders of both companies are to meet Monday to vote on the merger to form the worldÂ’s fourth-largest automaker, to be called Stellantis. The deal received EU regulatory approval just before Christmas. Tavares, who for years has wanted to sell PSA vehicles in the U.S., wonÂ’t take full control of the merged companies until the end of January at the earliest. He likely will target Europe for consolidation first, because thatÂ’s where Fiat vehicles overlap extensively with PSAÂ’s, said IHS Markit Principal Auto Analyst Stephanie Brinley. Europe has been a money-loser for FCA, and factories in Italy are operating way below capacity — a concern for unions, given FiatÂ’s role as the largest private sector employer in the country. “We are at a crossroads,Â’Â’ said Michele De Palma of the FIOM CGIL metalworkersÂ’ union. “Either there is a relaunch, or there is a slow agonizing closure of industry, in particular the auto industry, in Italy.” ItalyÂ’s hopes lie with the luxury Maserati and sporty Alfa Romeo brands, but De Palma said investments are needed to bring hybrid and electric technology up to speed. FiatÂ’s Italian capacity stands at 1.5 million vehicles, but only a few hundred thousand are being produced each year. Most factories were on rolling short-term layoffs due to lack of demand, even before the pandemic.

The UAW's 'record contract' hinges on pensions, battery plants

DETROIT - After nearly four weeks of disruptive strikes and hard bargaining, the United Auto Workers and the Detroit Three automakers have edged closer to a deal that could offer record-setting wage gains for nearly 150,000 U.S. workers. General Motors, Ford Motor and Chrysler parent Stellantis have all agreed to raise base wages by between 20% and 23% over a four-year deal, according to union and company statements. Ford and Stellantis have agreed to reinstate cost-of-living adjustments, or COLA. The companies have offered to boost pay for temporary workers and give them a faster path to full-time, full-wage status. All three have proposed slashing the time it takes a new hire to get to the top UAW pay rate. The progress in contract talks follows the first-ever simultaneous strike by the UAW against Detroit's Big Three automakers. The union began the strike on Sept. 15 in hopes of forcing a better deal from each major automaker. But coming close to a deal is not the same thing as reaching a deal. Big obstacles remain on at least two major UAW demands: restoring the retirement security provided by pre-2007 defined benefit pension plans, and covering present and future joint- venture electric vehicle battery plants under the union's master contracts with the automakers. On retirement, none of the automakers has agreed to restore pre-2007 defined-benefit pension plans for workers hired after 2007. Doing so could force the automakers to again burden their balance sheets with multibillion-dollar liabilities. GM and the former Chrysler unloaded most of those liabilities in their 2009 bankruptcies. The union and automakers have explored an approach to providing more income security by offering annuities as an investment option in their company-sponsored 401(k) savings plans, people familiar with the discussions said. Stellantis referred to an annuity option as part of a more generous 401(k) proposal on Sept. 22. Annuities or similar instruments could give UAW retirees assurance of fixed, predictable payouts less dependent on stock market ups and downs, experts said. Recent changes in federal law have removed obstacles to including annuities as a feature of corporate 401(k) plans, said Olivia Mitchell, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School and an expert on pensions and retirement. "Retirees want a way to be assured they won't run out of money," Mitchell said.