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Analysts wary over FCA lawsuit but say emissions not as bad as VW

MILAN - Any potential fines Fiat Chrysler (FCA) may need to pay to settle a US civil lawsuit over diesel emissions will unlikely top $1 billion, analysts said, adding the case appeared less serious than at larger rival Volkswagen. The US government filed a civil lawsuit on Tuesday accusing FCA of illegally using software to bypass emission controls in 104,000 vehicles sold since 2014, which it said led to higher than allowable levels of nitrogen oxide (NOx) that are blamed for respiratory illnesses. FCA's shares dropped 16 percent in January when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first raised the accusations, adding the carmaker could face a maximum fine of about $4.6 billion. The stock has been under pressure since. Volkswagen agreed to spend up to $25 billion in the United States to address claims from owners, environmental regulators, U.S. states and dealers. FCA, which sits on net debt of 5.1 billion euros ($5.70 billion), lacks VW's cash pile but analysts said its case looked much less severe. While VW admitted to intentionally cheating, Fiat Chrysler denies any wrongdoing. Authorities will have to prove that FCA's software constitutes a so-called "defeat device" and that it was fitted in the vehicles purposefully to bypass emission controls. Even if found guilty, the number of FCA vehicles targeted by the lawsuit is less than a fifth of those in the VW case. Applying calculations used in the German settlement, analysts estimate potential civil and criminal charges for Fiat Chrysler of around $800 million at most. Barclays has already cut its target price on the stock to take such a figure into account. Analysts also noted that FCA's vehicles are equipped with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for cutting NOx emissions, so it is likely that any problem could be fixed through a software update. "Should this be the case, we estimate a total cost per vehicle of not more than around $100, i.e. around $10 million in aggregate," Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers said in a note. The estimates exclude any additional investments FCA may be asked to make in zero emissions vehicles infrastructure and awareness as was the case with VW. FCA said last week it would update the software in the vehicles in question, hoping it would alleviate the regulators' concern, but analysts said it may have been too little too late. The carmaker is also facing accusations over its diesel emissions in Europe.

Hyundai reportedly eyeing a takeover of FCA

The CEO of Hyundai Motor Group plans to launch a takeover bid for Fiat Chrysler ahead of the planned retirement of FCA Chief Executive Sergio Marchionne next spring, Asia Times reports, citing unnamed sources close the situation. CEO Chung Mong-koo will wait for an expected decline in the Italian-American automaker's shares to make his move. Hyundai isn't commenting on the rumors, unsurprisingly, but would presumably stand to benefit by gaining Chrysler's dealer network and the lucrative Jeep brand and probably Ram, too. An FCA spokeswoman in Auburn Hills told Autoblog the company had no comment. But like any story about a possible takeover, this one gets complicated with inside players — and President Trump's posturing on international trade issues. FCA has been the subject of takeover interest before, including by Hyundai, but Marchionne has denied a merger was likely, instead saying his company was in talks with the Korean automaker about a technical partnership. In 2015, Marchionne lobbied General Motors hard, but unsuccessfully, for a tie-up; he was also spurned by Volkswagen. Marchionne had repeatedly stressed the need for car companies to merge to decrease overcapacity and better afford the massive investments needed for things like autonomous and electric vehicles. In the case of Hyundai's reported interest, there is a cast of characters. One is Paul Singer, principal of the hedge fund Elliott Management, an activist shareholder with a $1 billion stake in Hyundai and a major owner of equities in Fiat's home turf of Italy. Then there is FCA Chairman John Elkann, who reportedly disagrees with Marchionne on a successor as CEO of Fiat Chrysler but has little interest in running the company himself and would prefer a merger. Compounding things is what the Trump administration would think of a further blending of Fiat Chrysler's international DNA, though a deal with a Korean automaker is thought to be more palatable to the president and members of Congress than by a Chinese conglomerate like Great Wall Motor, which has confirmed its interest in taking over all or parts of FCA. The full Asia Times piece is here. Related Video: News Source: Asia TimesImage Credit: REUTERS/Rebecca Cook Chrysler Fiat Hyundai Jeep RAM Sergio Marchionne FCA merger takeover

What's in a trademark? Sometimes, the next iconic car name

The United States Patent and Trademark Office is a treasure trove for auto enthusiasts, especially those who double as conspiracy theorists.
Why has Toyota applied to trademark "Supra," the name of one of its legendary sports cars, even though it hasn't sold one in the United States in 16 years? Why would General Motors continue to register "Chevelle" long after one of the most famous American muscle cars hit the end of the road? And what could Chrysler possibly do with the rights to "313," the area code for Detroit?