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FCA close to paying off debt, outperforming Ford in earnings

FCA boosting output of SUVs, trucks in U.S. Marchionne says the company no longer needs a merger partner FCA expects to pay off all debt this year "There's a very strong likelihood that we will outperform Ford" MILAN/DETROIT — Fiat Chrysler's shift to sell more trucks and SUVs boosted margins yet again in its North American profit center, making Chief Executive Sergio Marchionne confident he can hit most of the final targets of his five-year turnaround plan. FCA has been retooling some U.S. factories to boost output of lucrative sport-utility vehicles and trucks while ending production of some unprofitable sedans. This put the world's seventh-largest carmaker on track to become debt-free by the end of the year, and allowed Marchionne to make good on his promise to close the gap on larger U.S. rivals General Motors (GM) and Ford. "There's a very strong likelihood that we will outperform Ford in terms of operating earnings in 2018," Marchionne told analysts on an earnings call Thursday. "That's something that if I told any of us in the room here that would've been doable five years ago, nobody would have believed it." As the 65-year-old executive prepares to hand over the reins to an internal successor next year, he said the improvements mean the company no longer needed a partner to survive. The carmaker has often been the subject of merger speculation, especially after its unsuccessful 2015 attempt to tie up with GM. "The necessity to find a partner, to try and guarantee our survival, going forward, is put to bed. I mean we're done," Marchionne told analysts on a post-results conference call. North America accounted for 71 percent of earnings last quarter, and profit margins in the region rose to 8 percent from 7.1 percent a year earlier, even as shipments fell 3 percent. Meanwhile Ford's automotive margin for North America slipped to 6.8 percent, down from 8.5 percent a year earlier.FCA trimmed its expectations for 2018 revenues and forecast adjusted operating profit of at least 8.7 billion euros, at the lower end of a previously given range. Analysts said FCA's margin improvement was impressive, and it could be on the cusp of a big boost from its new Jeep Wrangler and Jeep Cherokee models and its Ram 1500 truck. FCA ready to pay off its debt But the Italian-American carmaker expects to cancel all debt during 2018 — possibly by the end of June — and generate around 4 billion euros in net cash by the end of the year.

Marchionne urges industry consolidation, again

Sergio Marchionne isn't just an instigator of mergers – he's also a staunch advocate for their need in the industry. And he seems convinced another big one will happen in the next few years. "I am absolutely certain that before 2018 there will be a merger," said Marchionne. "It's my personal opinion, based on a gut feeling." Though the terms "absolutely certain" and "gut feeling" would seem to convey vastly different degrees of certainty, his chief's statement would seem to suggest some inside knowledge of an impending deal. Marchionne, of course, brokered the consolidation of the Fiat Chrysler Automobiles empire over which he now presides, and has been actively seeking another merger to help reduce redundancy and overhead between major automakers in the industry. With which automaker he might be seeking such a merger, however, remains a big question. He was recently reported to have approached Mary Barra regarding a potential merger with General Motors, but was said to have been rebuffed. The Italian-Canadian executive may not be alone in his advocacy for industry consolidation, though. Opel chief Karl-Thomas Neumann said that "In principle, Marchionne is right – the auto industry develops the same things ten times over." Bringing major automakers together would ostensibly reduce that redundancy. Marchionne had been linked to a potential takeover of Opel when GM was shedding brands post-bankruptcy, but in the end the Detroit giant opted to keep its European division in-house.

China-FCA merger could be a win-win for everyone but politicians

NEW YORK — Fiat Chrysler boss Sergio Marchionne has said the car industry needs to come together, cut costs and stop incinerating capital. So far, his words have mostly fallen on deaf ears among competitors in Europe and North America. But it appears Marchionne has finally found a receptive audience — in China. FCA shares soared Monday after trade publication Automotive News reported the $18 billion Italian-American conglomerate controlled by the Agnelli family rebuffed a takeover from an unidentified carmaker from the Chinese mainland. As ugly as the politics of such a combination may appear at first blush, a transaction could stack up industrially, and perhaps even financially. A Sino-U.S.-European merger would create the first truly global auto group. That could push consolidation to the next level elsewhere. Moreover, China is the world's top market for the SUVs that Jeep effectively invented, so it might benefit FCA financially. A combo would certainly help upgrade the domestic manufacturer; Chinese carmakers have gotten better at making cars, but struggle to build global brands, and they need to develop export markets. Though frivolous overseas shopping excursions by Chinese enterprises are being reined in by Beijing, acquisitions that support the modernization and transformation of strategic industries still receive support, and the government considers the automotive industry to be strategic. A purchase of FCA by Guangzhou Automobile, Great Wall or Dongfeng Motors would probably get the same stamp of approval ChemChina was given for its $43 billion takeover of Syngenta. What's standing in the way? Apart from price (Automotive News said FCA's board deemed the offer insufficient) there's the not-insignificant matter of politics. Even as FCA shares soared, President Donald Trump interrupted his vacation to instruct the U.S. Trade Representative to look into whether to investigate China's trade policies on intellectual property. Seeing storied Detroit brands like Jeep, Chrysler, Ram and Dodge handed off to a Chinese company would provoke howls among Trump's economic-nationalist supporters. It might not play well in Italy, either, to see Alfa Romeo and Maserati answering to Wuhan instead of Turin — though Automotive News said they might be spun off separately. Yet, as Morgan Stanley observes, "cars don't ship across oceans easily," and political considerations increasingly demand local manufacture of valuable products.