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Analysts wary over FCA lawsuit but say emissions not as bad as VW

MILAN - Any potential fines Fiat Chrysler (FCA) may need to pay to settle a US civil lawsuit over diesel emissions will unlikely top $1 billion, analysts said, adding the case appeared less serious than at larger rival Volkswagen. The US government filed a civil lawsuit on Tuesday accusing FCA of illegally using software to bypass emission controls in 104,000 vehicles sold since 2014, which it said led to higher than allowable levels of nitrogen oxide (NOx) that are blamed for respiratory illnesses. FCA's shares dropped 16 percent in January when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first raised the accusations, adding the carmaker could face a maximum fine of about $4.6 billion. The stock has been under pressure since. Volkswagen agreed to spend up to $25 billion in the United States to address claims from owners, environmental regulators, U.S. states and dealers. FCA, which sits on net debt of 5.1 billion euros ($5.70 billion), lacks VW's cash pile but analysts said its case looked much less severe. While VW admitted to intentionally cheating, Fiat Chrysler denies any wrongdoing. Authorities will have to prove that FCA's software constitutes a so-called "defeat device" and that it was fitted in the vehicles purposefully to bypass emission controls. Even if found guilty, the number of FCA vehicles targeted by the lawsuit is less than a fifth of those in the VW case. Applying calculations used in the German settlement, analysts estimate potential civil and criminal charges for Fiat Chrysler of around $800 million at most. Barclays has already cut its target price on the stock to take such a figure into account. Analysts also noted that FCA's vehicles are equipped with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for cutting NOx emissions, so it is likely that any problem could be fixed through a software update. "Should this be the case, we estimate a total cost per vehicle of not more than around $100, i.e. around $10 million in aggregate," Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers said in a note. The estimates exclude any additional investments FCA may be asked to make in zero emissions vehicles infrastructure and awareness as was the case with VW. FCA said last week it would update the software in the vehicles in question, hoping it would alleviate the regulators' concern, but analysts said it may have been too little too late. The carmaker is also facing accusations over its diesel emissions in Europe.

Trucks, SUVs — and Camry — shine in mixed U.S. January vehicle sales

DETROIT — Automakers posted mixed U.S. new vehicle sales data for January, with American consumers continuing to abandon passenger cars for the larger pickup trucks, SUVs and crossover models that manufacturers also love because they are far more profitable. Total industry auto sales for the month rose 1 percent versus January 2016. According to Autodata Corp, which tracks industry sales, the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of U.S. car and light truck sales in January fell to 17.12 million units from 17.44 million a year earlier. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a January SAAR of 17.2 million units. U.S. auto industry sales fell 2 percent in 2017 to 17.23 million vehicles after hitting a record high in 2016 and are expected to drop further in 2018 despite a solid economy. Interest rates are rising and around 4 million late-model used cars will return to dealer lots this year to compete with more expensive new ones. Automakers have used consumer discounts to boost sales, a growing concern for observers who say this undermines resale values and profits. Discounts declined in January, but remained above 10 percent of manufacturers' recommended prices. ""I think the industry has accepted that (sales) volumes will fall somewhat in 2018 ... and I don't think the industry is going to go over the cliff with insane incentives," Mike Jackson, chief executive officer of AutoNation Inc, told Reuters after his company, the largest U.S. auto retail chain, posted a higher quarterly net profit. Mark Wakefield, head of the North American automotive practice for consultancy AlixPartners, had a gloomier perspective. The industry's less-than-stellar sales performance for January showed "we are now past the peak," he said. "Automakers are now selling the deal instead of the vehicle," he said. "That's a tough spot to be in because that treadmill is hard to get off once you're on it." General Motors January sales rose 1.3 percent, driven by a 16 percent rise in fleet sales. Sales to consumers fell 2.4 percent. GM posted strong gains for models such as the Silverado pickup truck and Equinox crossover model, while its passenger cars continued to struggle. Ford The Blue Oval posted a 6.6 percent sales decline for January, with retail sales down 4.3 percent. Sales of Ford's F-Series pickup trucks - America's best-selling vehicle brand for decades — rose 1.6 percent. Passenger cars were down more than 23 percent.

2018 Honda Odyssey bests Pacifica, Sienna in minivan crash, LATCH tests

Honda has a lot to be proud of following the latest round of passenger small-overlap crash testing by the IIHS. The safety organization tested the 2018 Honda Odyssey, 2018 Chrysler Pacifica and 2018 Toyota Sienna, and the Odyssey managed the best rating of "Good." The Pacifica followed behind with an "Acceptable" rating, and the Sienna brought up the rear with just a "Marginal." Both the Pacifica and Sienna lost points because the structure around the passengers collapsed to differing extents, leading to parts of the structure intruding into the passenger compartment. The Pacifica didn't intrude enough to harm passengers, with each injury area still having a Good rating, but the Sienna's structure intruded far enough to potentially harm the leg and foot areas, leading to an Acceptable rating in those specific areas. In addition to the small overlap crash test, the IIHS evaluated all three minivans for LATCH child seat anchor ease of use. Once again, the Odyssey aced the test with a Good+ rating, which is awarded for both ease of use and offering multiple anchor point options. The Pacifica and Sienna swap the crash test ratings, with a Marginal for the Chrysler and an Acceptable for the Sienna. The Odyssey and Pacifica can both brag that they're Top Safety Picks, and they'd get Top Safety Pick+ awards if they weren't hampered by headlights that only get Acceptable ratings. The Toyota Sienna fails to earn the regular Top Safety Pick award because both small overlap tests yielded results that were too low. Only one other minivan tested by IIHS has the Top Safety Pick rating, and that's the Kia Sedona. It earns an Acceptable rating in LATCH usability, and its headlights actually earned a Good rating. It hasn't undergone passenger-side small overlap crash testing yet. If it fares well, it could get bumped up to a Top Safety Pick+ rating. Related Video: Image Credit: IIHS Chrysler Honda Toyota Safety Minivan/Van consumer toyota sienna chrysler pacifica IIHS Top Safety Pick