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GM sees 'strong year' in 2018, then gold in Chevy Silverado for 2019

DETROIT — General Motors said on Tuesday it expects earnings in 2018 to be largely flat compared with 2017, but that profits should pick up pace in 2019 as its revamped line of high-margin pickup trucks hits the U.S. market. The 2018 earnings outlook was above market expectations, sending GM shares up more than 3 percent in premarket trading. "GM had a very good 2017 as we continued to transform our company to be more focused, resilient and profitable," GM Chief Executive Mary Barra said in a statement. "We are positioned for another strong year in 2018 and an even better one in 2019." GM and its Detroit rivals, Ford and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, are bringing on new trucks at a time when overall U.S. new vehicle sales have been falling, but truck sales continue to grow as consumers abandon passenger cars in favor of pickups, SUVs and crossovers. GM on Saturday fired a new round in the battle for profits from one of the U.S. auto industry's most lucrative segments when it showed a new generation of its Chevrolet Silverado pickup truck at the Detroit auto show. The new Silverado, a highlight of the event, is the successor to GM's best-selling vehicle in North America. Sales of the current Silverado rose nearly 2 percent to 585,000 vehicles in 2017. In the coming months, the company will also reveal a revamped GMC Sierra pickup truck. U.S. new vehicle sales fell 2 percent in 2017 after hitting a record high in 2016, and are expected to drop further in 2018 as interest rates rise and more late-model used cars return to dealer lots to compete with new ones. GM said on Tuesday that while it retools a factory in Ft. Wayne, Indiana, to make the new pickup trucks, it will shift some production to an Oshawa, Ontario, plant in order to avoid missing sales in a hot market for the vehicles. The No. 1 U.S. automaker said it will record a $7 billion non-cash charge for its fourth-quarter 2017 earnings related to deferred tax assets. GM said it expects capital expenditure in 2018 of around $8.5 billion, about $1 billion of which will go toward funding self-driving car technology. Last week, the company said it is seeking U.S. government approval for a fully autonomous car — one without a steering wheel, brake pedal or accelerator pedal — to enter the automaker's first commercial ride-sharing fleet in 2019. GM said it expects 2017 earnings per share at the high end of its previously forecast range of $6 to $6.50.

GM's Oshawa plant may close after Camaro production moves

Most of the time, when vehicle production is moved from one assembly plant to another, it spells bad news for the former. While General Motors won't go so far as to say its Oshawa, Ontario factory, which is losing the Chevrolet Camaro to the Lansing Grand River plant, is in trouble, analysts seem to think the factory's days are numbered. Forecasts for the facility are far from positive. The loss of the Camaro this year, combined with GM's targeted shutdown of a single-shift assembly line responsible for the fleet-only Chevy Impala Limited and the Equinox crossover is a bad enough omen. But with AutoForecast Solutions CEO Joe McCabe telling The Detroit News that the plant's other two products, the Cadillac XTS and Buick Regal, aren't likely to stick around beyond 2017, things look decidedly grim at Oshawa. "There is a fairly strong chance that the plant could close," Jeff Schuster, senior VP of forecasting for LMC Automotive, told The Detroit News. That doesn't mean that Unifor, Canada's auto union, and the Canadian government are going to let the factory die without a fight. And with the latter chipping in $10 billion as part of GM's 2009 bailout, you might think it has a degree of leverage in the situation. A meeting between the government and the Detroit Three at the 2015 North American International Auto Show revealed that Oshawa is already a topic of conversation. "We made it very clear that we would like to see an indication on the future of Oshawa sooner, in particular because the timing is very challenging for our supply chain to be able to adjust to potentially future orders or changes, but also to know that there are going to be future opportunities at Oshawa," Ontario's Minister of Economic, Development, Employment and Infrastructure Brad Duguid told The Detroit News. "Bottom line: It's time they made a longer-term commitment here," Unifor President Jerry Dias said, echoing Duguid's statements. It's unclear if this sort of strong talk will be enough to save 3,300-plus employees, although based on the analysts' forecasts, we doubt it.

GM might lose 90-year U.S. sales crown over chip shortage

Automotive News editor Nick Bunkley tweeted on October 1 that according to AutoNews data, General Motors "has been the largest seller of vehicles in the U.S. every year since passing Ford in 1931." With automakers having turned in light car and truck sales data for the first three quarters of 2021, GM's 90-year-run might not reach 91. According to AN figures, Toyota was 80,401 vehicles ahead when the October workday started. Worse, GM is so far behind its historic pace that it might only sell enough light vehicles in the U.S. to match its numbers from 1958.  Meanwhile, the New York Times put a few more salient numbers to the pain GM and Toyota are enduring alongside the the rest of the industry. GM sold 33% fewer cars in Q3 2021 than it did in Q3 2019 during the dark days of the pandemic, 446,997 units this year as opposed to 665,192 last year. GM's Q3 2020 was only down 13% on Q3 2019. Over at Toyota, the bottom line showed a 1% gain in Q3 2021 compared to 2020, with 566,005 units moved off dealer lots. The finer numbers show two steps forward and one step back, though; Toyota's September sales were down 22% compared to last year.  GM remains optimistic about what's ahead, GM's president of North American operations telling the NYT, "We look forward to a more stable operating environment through the fall." We'd like to see that happen, but we don't know how it happens. The chip shortage said to have been the inciting incident for the current woes isn't over, and not only can no one agree when it will be over, the automakers, chip producers, and U.S. government still can't get on the same page about who needs what and when. Looking away from that for a second shows articles about "No End In Sight" for supply chain disruptions in early September, before China had to start working through power supply constraints, global supply chain workers started warning of a "system collapse," and roughly 500,000 containers sat waiting to be unloaded at Southern California ports — a record number seemingly broken every week. And back to chips, we're told just a few days ago the chip shortage is "worse than we thought."   For now, the NYT wrote that GM dealer inventory is down 40% from June to roughly 129,000 vehicles, and down 84% from the days when dealers would cumulatively keep about 800,000 light vehicles in stock. However, GM just announced it would have almost all of its U.S. facilities back online next week, although some would run at partial capacity.